Kansas State vs Arizona Prediction, Pick & Odds for Friday Night CFB

• Kansas State and Arizona square off on Friday Night
• The Wildcats just lost as 17.5-point favorites against Army last week
• See my Kansas State vs Arizona predictions and picks for this game

---

Oddly enough, even though both programs are now in the Big 12, this game will not count toward the conference standings. The matchup was scheduled before Arizona officially joined the conference in 2024, but it still serves as a preview of future battles.

The two teams enter on very different trajectories. Kansas State came into the year with high expectations but has stumbled, losing to Iowa in Dublin (24-21), edging North Dakota (38-35), and falling to Army (24-21). Arizona, meanwhile, has cruised through a much softer schedule, routing Hawaii (40-6) and Weber State (48-3). The level of competition hasn’t been the same, but the Wildcats’ offensive production is still worth noting.

Can K-State get back on track before their official conference play begins, or will Noah Fifita and Arizona continue to roll on offense? Let’s break this game down with my Kansas State vs Arizona predictions and picks. 

Kansas State vs Arizona Odds

Odds via BetMGM as of 3 pm ET. Get access to these odds with a BetMGM promo code.

It’s not just that Chris Klieman’s group lost to Army – it’s the manner in which it happened. The Wildcats entered as 17.5-point favorites but were dominated in time of possession, with the Black Knights holding the ball for over 40 minutes, including nearly 27 minutes in the second half alone.

Oddsmakers initially posted K-State as 2.5-point favorites, but that number has since slipped to -1.5. The total, meanwhile, has held steady at 54.5.

Kansas State vs Arizona Prediction

Perhaps playing overseas with no true break afterward has taken a toll on Kansas State. We’ve seen teams in similar situations struggle before, and Chris Klieman’s group may be another example.

K-State HC Chris Klieman with some comments on how outside noise affects players in the social media era.

"I'm glad I didn't play in this era … You're either going to let [the noise] consume you, fuel you, or you're not going to pay attention to it. There's probably all three" pic.twitter.com/ztzlak0aCL

— Mark Poulose (@MarkPoulose) September 8, 2025

That said, the season isn’t lost for the Wildcats. A win Friday night could jumpstart momentum and keep them in the Big 12 race. The talent is there – they just need a spark – and facing an Arizona team that hasn’t seen real competition might provide it.

Witnessing the defensive struggles Kansas State has endured does provide temptation to either backing Arizona outright, or a team total. Quarterback Noah Fifita has only thrown the ball 45 times, but has completed 30 passes for 534 yards, with six touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Still, Kansas State’s defensive issues make it tempting to back Arizona or look toward a team total. The opposition hasn’t been strong, but Fifita has the tools to produce against anyone – and Kansas State doesn’t look equipped to slow him down.

Noah Fifita was phenomenal against Weber State while throwing for 373 yards and 5 TD’s

pic.twitter.com/48vc6TxkZ2

— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) September 8, 2025

Kansas State vs Arizona Pick

• Avery Johnson Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

With all that in mind, I don’t see a clear edge on either side. Kansas State is desperate yet flawed, while Arizona has looked sharp without facing real competition.

Instead, the value lies in the prop market. I’m targeting K-State quarterback Avery Johnson to go over 227.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM). Through three games, the junior has thrown for 763 yards (254.3 per game) with six touchdowns and just one interception. He’s cleared this mark in two out of three games this season. 

This matchup sets up for offense. Whether it turns into a shootout or Arizona exploits Kansas State’s defensive holes, both game scripts point to Johnson needing to throw often – giving him a strong chance to clear this number.