Penn State vs Oregon Prediction, Betting Line & Best Bet – CFB Week 5

• Penn State hosts Oregon in College Football Week 5
• The Nittany Lions look for revenge after the Ducks beat them in the Big Ten Championship
• See our Penn State vs Oregon prediction, betting lines and best bet for CFB Week 5

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A Big Ten Championship rematch takes place in Happy Valley on Saturday evening as Penn State hosts Oregon.

The Ducks got the better of the Nittany Lions in that meeting last December, winning 45-37. Can James Franklin and his team get revenge, or will Dan Lanning’s crew prove they’re still the superior program?

Let’s dive in with my Penn State vs Oregon predictions, betting lines and best bets.

Penn State vs Oregon Prediction

Penn State’s start to the season hasn’t exactly been inspiring for bettors. They opened up as massive favorites in three straight games and failed to cover any of them. First, it was Nevada at -42.5, then FIU at -42, and finally Villanova at -47.5. They won all three comfortably, but anyone backing them at the window walked away disappointed.

Oregon’s path has looked a lot different. Sure, they got the freebie against Montana State, but after that, they handled business against Oklahoma State, Northwestern, and Oregon State. The Ducks have been on another level – putting up over 50 points per game while allowing an average of fewer than 10.

The reason is pretty simple: Dante Moore looks like a star. The sophomore has been carving defenses apart, completing 74% of his passes for 962 yards and 11 touchdowns with just one pick. He’s added another 87 yards on the ground, and the offensive line has only allowed one sack all season. To top it off, his defense hasn’t given up a passing touchdown yet.

Oregon QB Dante Moore may be the most talented QB in CFB. Here’s how he manipulated the Defense for a huge TD… with his eyes ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/zQ9p9phX22

— LandonTengwall (@LandonTengwall) September 23, 2025

The metrics back up what the eye test shows: Oregon sits sixth in offensive EPA and 14th on defense. Penn State, on the other hand, still looks like the same old James Franklin team. The defense is legit – 17th in defensive EPA – but the offense is stuck in neutral, ranking 80th.

Drew Allar still has yet to prove he’s a top-tier quarterback. Against a cupcake schedule, his numbers are extremely underwhelming: 57-of-68 (65%) for just four touchdowns, one interception and 27 rushing yards on 10 carries. That’s it for the senior quarterback.

Drew Allar currently has a QBR of 38.3 through the first three games of this season.

For reference, Allar would have a better QBR (39.6) spiking the ball into the dirt on every play.

Allar was a potential Top-10 pick heading into the season 😳 pic.twitter.com/N51xGsVLIZ

— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 18, 2025

I get the temptation of the revenge angle, especially at one of the most intimidating home venues in college football. But I can’t justify laying more than a field goal with a below-average quarterback in Allar. If he goes out there and proves me wrong, so be it – I’ll give him the credit he deserves.

Until then, as the saying goes: “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.” That’s exactly how I view Allar in big-game situations, based on what he’s shown us, or rather, the lack thereof.

Dante Moore looks like the real deal, along with the rest of his squad. I’ll gladly take +3.5 with his side.

• Bet: Oregon +3.5

Penn State vs Oregon Odds

Odds via DraftKings as of September 23 at 8:30 am ET. Check out the DraftKings legal states before wagering on Week 5.

Oregon vs Penn State Betting Line

Despite sportsbooks posting lines as early as May, there’s been little movement on either the spread or total. Penn State opened as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 52.5, and both numbers remain unchanged.

Both teams come in undefeated, but against the spread, Oregon is 3-1 while Penn State sits at 0-3.