Clemson vs North Carolina Prediction, Pick, Odds & Spread – ACC Football Week 6

• Clemson is a 14-point favorite over North Carolina in ACC play today
• Starting Tar Heels QB Gio Lopez is doubtful, meaning Max Johnson is likely to start
• See below for my Clemson vs North Carolina prediction and pick, plus the latest odds and spread

At the beginning of the season, today’s Clemson (1-3, 0-2 ACC) vs North Carolina (2-2, 0-0 ACC) showdown was one of the more highly anticipated games on the ACC schedule. Dabo Swinney vs Bill Belichick, with Swinney’s Tigers expecting a return trip to the College Football Playoff. But life has a funny way of throwing us curve balls.

Through five weeks, it’s hard to find two more disappointing teams than Clemson and UNC. Both have severely underachieved, and neither has a Power-4 win on their resume to date. Online sportsbooks expect that to change for the Tigers, as they’ve been pegged two touchdown favorites in the latest college football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for Noon ET at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Clemson vs North Carolina Prediction

I disagree with the lofty Clemson vs North Carolina spread, but prefer targeting the total. Clemson has looked nothing like a CFP odds contender on both sides of the ball, but this is a get right spot on offense. I’m expecting Cade Klubnik to finally play up to this potential, as he might not find a more favorable matchup than the Tar Heels defense all season.

On the other side of the ball, starting UNC quarterback Gio Lopez is doubtful, which may actually be a boost to the Tar Heels offense. Lopez has been incapable of throwing the ball downfield, finishing with less than 100 passing yards in two of four starts. This Tigers defense has been susceptible through the air, and journeyman backup QB Max Johnson is a better fit to exploit that weakness.

Clemson vs North Carolina Pick

• Over 46.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Klubnik has looked more like someone about to be benched than a Heisman Trophy odds candidate this season. He has nearly as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (6), and has posted career lows in completion percentage and QBR. The Clemson offense is outside the top-75 in scoring and yards per game, and ranks 91st in third down conversion rate.

Clemson Offensive Stats

Fortunately for Klubnik, the UNC defense is a complete disaster. The Tar Heels are 82nd in scoring defense despite not playing anyone. Their pass defense has been especially bad, as they’re allowing enemy QB’s to complete 70% of their throws. North Carolina doesn’t generate pressure (132nd in sack percentage) and they don’t take the ball away. If there was ever a spot for Klubnik to break out it’s here, and the fact that Clemson has had an extra week to prepare will only help.

As for the Tar Heels offense, Johnson should have plenty of time to throw. The once vaunted Tigers pass rush has been non-existent this season, and UNC’s offensive line grades out third in the country in pass blocking per PFF. Johnson has completed 67% of his passes so far this season, and has a career 49-to-13 TD-to-INT rate playing for big-time SEC programs LSU and Texas A&M before joining North Carolina.

Clemson’s defense has been a disappointment against both the run and the pass, allowing a 65% completion percentage and 7.0 yards per throw. They grade out just 54th in pass rush metrics per PFF, despite having a front that was expected to produce multiple top-10 picks.

Both teams should be able to produce offensively in this matchup, making over 46.5 my Clemson vs North Carolina pick. The Tar Heels have yielded 34+ points to each of the two best teams they’ve faced so far, while the Tigers have coughed up 58 points total in their last two games alone.

Clemson vs North Carolina Odds & Spread

The best place to bet the over is at DraftKings, where they’re currently half-a-point to a full point lower than everyone else. Spread wise, Clemson is favored by 14 points and -575 on the moneyline, after opening as 12.5-point chalk.

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Per the college football public betting trends, big money bettors are on over 46.5 as well. That side of the total is drawing 62% of the tickets, and a hefty 80% of over/under handle.