Oklahoma vs Texas Prediction, Line & Early Bet to Make

• Oklahoma and Texas head to Dallas to renew a classic rivalry
• Will Texas bounce back after a destructive loss?
• Check out my Oklahoma vs Texas prediction as well as the betting line below

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SEC rivals meet as the No.6 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) and Texas Longhorns (3-2) battle in the Red River Rivalry. The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas, hosts the game at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 11th, on an ABC broadcast.

I’ve made my Oklahoma vs Texas prediction for Saturday and provided the betting odds with one of college football’s most storied rivalries coming up.

Oklahoma vs Texas Prediction

• Over 42.5 (-105 FanDuel)

In classic Red River Rivalry fashion, I expect scoring to come in bunches. In the last 16 matchups, only two (2015 and 2024) featured fewer than 42.5 points.

If the total was higher than 42.5, I would have some reservations about committing to the over without knowing the status of Oklahoma’s John Mateer. However, at 42.5, the over is entirely in play, regardless of Mateer’s status.

Here's what was said Monday about quarterback John Mateer's status ahead of the #Sooners matchup against Texas. pic.twitter.com/SLDlrYv7Wb

— OU Daily Sports (@OUDailySports) October 7, 2025

Oklahoma vs Texas Preview

After opening the season at No.18 in the polls, Oklahoma has gotten off to an excellent start with a pair of ranked wins – Michigan and Auburn. Last week, they obliterated Kent State 44-0 even without then-Heisman frontrunner John Mateer.

Through four weeks, Mateer had dominated in his new home in Norman. He had 11 total touchdowns with over 1,400 total yards. However, he missed last week with an injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Texas.

If Mateer cannot go, the Sooners will rely on sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. Hawkins started in last year’s matchup with Texas, but he had a middling performance. Last week, Hawkins had 195 total yards and four touchdowns as the Sooners beat Kent State.

This throw from Michael Hawkins Jr 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/pWZhIjpj60

— Aaron Murray (@aaronmurray11) October 7, 2025

Oklahoma’s rushing offense has been mediocre overall. Tory Blaylock leads the team with 257 rushing yards, and his three touchdowns are second to Mateer. Cal transfer Jaydn Ott has not lived up to his preseason promise, averaging just 3.3 yards per rush.

The Sooners’ passing offense is a four-headed monster with receivers Isaiah Sategna, Deion Burks, and Keontez Lewis joining tight end Jaren Kanak. Sategna leads the team with 26 catches, 359 yards, and three touchdowns, but all four players are within one game of production.

Defensively, watch for future top-50 pick R Mason Thomas. Thomas has 3.0 sacks and 5.0 tackles for loss thus far. He also forced a safety in Oklahoma’s win over Auburn. Oklahoma has the No.2 scoring defense in college football, trailing only Ohio State.

Texas opened the season as the No.1 team in the country, but they lost to Ohio State in Week 1. They rebounded with three non-conference wins, but last week, they lost in The Swamp to an unranked Florida team, causing the Longhorns to plummet out of the polls. Can Texas claw back into CFP contention?

Analysis of Texas this season begins and ends with quarterback Arch Manning. Manning has failed to live up to his preseason hype as the Heisman favorite. He does have 16 total touchdowns through five games, but he only has three (with three interceptions) in the Ohio State and Florida games.

Devin Moore was a my guy in summer scouting because he knows how to make plays like this, textbook job at playing the ball and taking advantage of an Arch Manning throw that hung in the air just a bit too long pic.twitter.com/m99oXD68eK

— Anthony Russo (@Anthony_Russo97) October 4, 2025

Another piece of the Manning puzzle is that he leads the team in rushing and rushing touchdowns. The likes of Jerrick Gibson, James Simon, and CJ Baxter have not played up to the standard of past Texas running backs such as Jamaal Charles and Bijan Robinson. They have been firmly average.

Receivers Parker Livingstone and Ryan Wingo have fueled the Longhorns. They have a cumulative 30 catches for 542 yards and seven touchdowns. Tight end Jack Endries has added a pair of touchdowns as well.

For all of the offensive issues, the Longhorns do have one of the better defenses in the country. Pass rusher Colin Simmons is a likely first-round pick in the 2027 class, and linebacker Anthony Hill could be the first linebacker taken in this coming draft.

Texas ILB Anthony Hill Jr. 🤘
📊 Led Texas in tackles (113), TFLs (16.5), FFs (4) in 2024
🎯 Downhill, disruptive — diagnoses quickly & sheds to finish
💥 Violent at the POA, strong motor
🚀 Effective blitzer from depth & on the edge
📈 34 career games, 26 starts — experienced &… pic.twitter.com/QQcYqRMN0q

— Panini Senior Bowl (@seniorbowl) October 4, 2025

Oklahoma vs Texas Line

The sportsbooks have listed Texas as a neutral-site favorite with a total of 42.5. Over bettors can get over 42.5 for -105 odds at FanDuel. Under bettors can get under 42.5 at DraftKings for -110 odds.

Texas bettors should take them -2.5 at DraftKings (-110 odds) or -135 on the moneyline, also at DraftKings. Oklahoma bettors should take them +3 at Caesars (-115 odds) or +125 on the moneyline at BetMGM.

Oklahoma vs Texas, Last Five Matchups

Texas holds the lifetime edge, posting a 64-51-5 record against the Sooners. In recent seasons, Texas has flipped the script after Oklahoma dominated from 2010 to 2021. Texas recorded its largest win over Oklahoma ever in their 2022 49-0 demolition.

Last season, Texas scored the last 34 points of the game to clobber Oklahoma 34-3. Quinn Ewers threw for and rushed for a touchdown for the Longhorns while linebacker Anthony Hill dominated with 11 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss, two sacks, and a forced fumble.