Thursday College Football Picks: Best Bets for all 4 Games (Oct. 9)

• Thursday night college football brings four Conference USA and AAC matchups with betting value
• Underdogs and unders highlight the October 9 slate across the board
• Check out my college football predictions and best bets for Week 7’s Thursday games

While the NFL gives us one Thursday game, college football delivers four. That’s why I love this sport. Tonight’s Week 7 slate features Conference USA and AAC battles with clear betting edges across the board.

Louisiana Tech visits Kennesaw State at 7 pm ET on ESPNU. East Carolina travels to Tulane at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. Jacksonville State faces Sam Houston at 8 pm ET on CBS Sports Network. Southern Miss battles Georgia Southern at 8 pm ET on ESPN2.

I’ve been tracking line movement all week, and sharp money has created value in several spots. The public’s been hammering favorites, but the smart money’s going the other way. Here are my college football picks for Thursday’s four-game slate.

Thursday Night College Football Picks: Week 7 Predictions

All college football odds as of Oct. 9. Get the latest sportsbook promos to tail our college football predictions.

College Football Picks: Kennesaw State +5.5 & Under 46.5

The line dropped from Louisiana Tech -7.5 to -5.5, and I’m following that sharp money. Kennesaw State is undefeated at home while Louisiana Tech’s offense averages just 4.89 yards per play. The Bulldogs lean on their defense, which has 11 interceptions and allows 13.6 points per game.

But here’s what makes this my favorite college football pick tonight: revenge. Kennesaw State got embarrassed 33-0 by Louisiana Tech last year. The Owls haven’t forgotten that shutout, and they’re a different team at Fifth Third Stadium. Quarterback Amari Odom brings dual-threat ability that can neutralize Louisiana Tech’s aggressive pass rush.

Louisiana Tech quarterback Blake Baker has been painfully conservative. He’s thrown for 170 yards or less in three of five games. The Bulldogs want to run the ball and control clock, but their 148.6 rushing yards per game won’t overwhelm a Kennesaw State defense that’s allowing just 4.2 yards per carry.

I also love the under here. Louisiana Tech has hit under in four of five games. Both teams rank outside the top 60 in scoring offense. My college football prediction: this turns into a defensive slugfest with field goals deciding it. Louisiana Tech wins 20-17, but Kennesaw State covers.

• Best Bets: Kennesaw State +5.5 (-105) & Under 46.5 (-111)

Thursday Football Picks: East Carolina +6.5

Sharp money pushed this line from Tulane -7 to -6.5, and I agree with the pros. East Carolina’s defense is legit, allowing just 13.4 points per game. They held Army scoreless two weeks ago and nearly upset NC State, losing by just seven.

What I love about ECU is their passing game balance. Katin Houser has three different receivers with over 300 yards each. Anthony Smith has 352 yards. Yannick Smith has 332. Winston Wright has 301. All three average over 12.5 yards per catch. That’s impossible to defend.

Tulane’s home-field advantage at Yulman Stadium is real. It’s a tiny venue that gets loud. Duke had multiple false starts there earlier this season. But Tulane’s passing game is suspect, completing just 54.5% with a mediocre 188.6 yards per game.

The Green Wave want to run the ball, averaging 205.8 yards on the ground. Problem is, East Carolina allows just 117.8 rushing yards at 3.3 yards per carry. When Tulane faces third-and-long, their offense stalls. I’m taking the Pirates to keep this within a field goal.

ECU ranks 42nd in yards per play differential while Tulane sits 88th. My college football pick here is the Pirates getting nearly a touchdown on the road.

• Best Bet: East Carolina +6.5 (-109)

NCAAF Predictions: Jacksonville State -7 & Under 54.5

Jacksonville State faces the worst team in FBS, and I’m laying the touchdown without hesitation. Sam Houston is 0-5, averaging 15 points per game while allowing 41.6. They’ve been outscored by 17-plus in every single game.

The stats are almost unbelievable. Sam Houston ranks 132nd in scoring, 131st in total offense, 133rd in pass defense, and 120th in yards per carry allowed. They’ve managed just nine touchdowns through five games. Their offensive line has allowed 17 sacks.

Jacksonville State brings Rich Rodriguez’s ground-and-pound philosophy. The Gamecocks rank 8th nationally with 261.4 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per carry. They’ve rushed for 15 touchdowns already. Cam Cook has 614 yards and five scores.

Hunter Watson quarterbacks Sam Houston’s disaster of an offense. He’s completing 58.6% of his passes for just 154.5 yards per game. Behind that terrible offensive line, he’s been sacked repeatedly and thrown five interceptions to one touchdown.

I’m also taking the under because Sam Houston won’t contribute much. They’ve failed to score more than 10 points in three of five games. Jacksonville State will run clock and cruise. My college football predictions have both these bets cashing easily.

• Best Bets: Jacksonville State -7 (-113) & Under 54.5 (-111)

College Football Best Bets: Southern Miss -3

The line flipped from Georgia Southern -2.5 to Southern Miss -3, a massive 5.5-point swing that caught my attention immediately. When Vegas moves a line that much, you follow the money. The Golden Eagles are playing their best football while Georgia Southern can’t stop anyone.

Georgia Southern’s run defense is historically bad. They’re allowing 262.6 rushing yards at an absurd 6.5 yards per carry. Teams aren’t even trying to pass against them. Just run it up the middle and watch the yards pile up.

Braylon Braxton quarterbacking Southern Miss has been brilliant. He’s completing 65% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions. The Golden Eagles also bring a defense with teeth: 15 sacks, eight interceptions, and a +6 turnover differential.

But the real mismatch is Jeffery Pittman against that Georgia Southern run defense. Pittman’s been averaging over 60 yards per game against decent defenses. Against this Swiss cheese unit? He could go for 100-plus easily.

Georgia Southern quarterback JC French faces constant pressure. His offensive line has surrendered 11 sacks and can’t create running lanes. Southern Miss will pin their ears back and attack. I’m laying the points with the road favorite in my final college football pick tonight.

• Best Bet: Southern Miss -3 (-119)