Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers Picks, Prediction & Updated Betting Lines (Week 6)
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- The Green Bay Packers look to surge after an early bye week when they face the new-look Bengals with Joe Flacco under center
- Can the former Cleveland Brown QB pull off a second upset over the Packers this season?
- Check out my Bengals vs Packers pick as well as the updated betting lines, below
The reeling Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) head to Green Bay to face the off-the-bye Packers (2-1-1). Lambeau Field plays host at 4:25 on a CBS broadcast.
Read below for my Bengals vs Packers pick, the current CIN/GB betting lines, and three key players to watch.
CIN Bengals vs GB Packers Pick
- Under 45.5 (-114, BetRivers)
With a midweek trade to bring in Joe Flacco, the Bengals’ offense is in flux. For under purposes, this has two benefits. First, Flacco has yet to develop chemistry with his weapons or his offensive line. Second, this situation will likely force the Bengals to run the ball when they would otherwise throw the ball, taking valuable time off the clock and preserving the under.
The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in football, earning a 44.0 PFF pass-blocking grade and 35.7 PFF run-blocking grade. However, they will get a slight reprieve this week as the Packers have just a middling run defense. Green Bay’s pass rush and coverage units should tee off, but the Bengals will have their best shot of the season to run the football.
As huge favorites, the Packers could opt for a more conservative playstyle. They have been 6.5-point or larger favorites in each of their last two games – losing outright to the Browns and tying with Dallas. With this recent history, I expect the Packers to try to limit possessions and look to salt the game away with Josh Jacobs.
I expect both teams to lean on their rushing attacks, taking extra time off the clock each possession. I am picking Under 45.5 in a likely Packer victory.
Bengals vs Packers Predictions
Flacco Looks for Second Win over Packers
Joe Flacco quarterbacked the Browns to their shocking 13-10 win over the Packers back in Week 3. According to NBC Sports, Flacco will become just the seventh quarterback to face the same team multiple times in a season while playing for two different franchises. The only quarterback to beat the same opponent twice is Jack Kemp, back in 1962.
Flacco’s on-field performance has been less than ideal this season. After a pair of unfortunate interceptions Week 1 against Cincinnati, Flacco started taking massive liberties with the football, throwing four picks in the next three weeks before being benched for Dillon Gabriel and traded.
Flacco has a 61.1 PFF passing grade with five big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays. In Cincinnati, he will have the benefit of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the Packers have a tough secondary led by Xavier McKinney and Keisean Nixon
Micah Parsons’ DPOY Case
As mentioned, the Bengals have a 44.0 pass-blocking grade on the season. Parsons, meanwhile, leads all edge rushers with a 93.4 pass-rush grade. He has 25 pressures on just 131 pass-rush snaps. His 28.0% pass-rush win rate is third in the NFL.
Parsons has had a reasonable start to his Packers career, recording 2.5 sacks in four games (while only playing 65% of the snaps). Parsons is among the favorites in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, an award he’s already finished runner-up for twice in just four seasons.
With a big performance against the Bengals, Parsons could be the favorite to win the award as soon as Sunday night.
Josh Jacobs Is the Key
After two cruise-control victories (and covers), the Packers have been stuck in the mud in their last two games. The offense struggled against the Browns, scoring just 10 points. Against Dallas, the defense imploded, allowing 436 yards and 40 points. Green Bay blew a double-digit lead in both games.
Week 6 is a prime opportunity for Josh Jacobs to get his season going. Through four games, Jacobs is averaging 3.3 yards per rush with a 45.0% success rate, both marks would be the lowest of his career. He has yet to run for even 4.0 yards per carry even if he does have four rushing touchdowns.
Two backs have rushed for 100 yards versus Cincinnati, with Jordan Mason (116) and J.K. Dobbins (101) clearing the mark in blowout wins. The Packers should look to Jacobs early and often against a middle-of-the-pack Bengals run defense.
Bengals vs Packers Betting Lines
The Packers are hefty home favorites with the total between 44.5 and 45.5 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 44.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 45.5 on BetRivers for -114 odds.
Green Bay bettors can get the Packers on the spread at -13.5 on BetRivers for -122 odds or -1100 on the moneyline at DraftKings. For Cincinnati bettors, take the Bengals at +14.5 at Caesars (-110 odds) or +800 odds at ESPN Bet on the moneyline.
CIN vs GB: Last Five Matchups
The Packers and Bengals have split their 14 lifetime meetings. Each of the last six matchups have been decided by seven or fewer points. Green Bay has won the last two matchups with game-winning field goals in overtime.
Back in 2021, the Bengals and Packers engaged in one of the stranger games of the season. Packers kicker Mason Crosby missed three field goals in the last 2:14 of regulation and overtime. Bengals kicker Evan McPherson missed a pair of kicks, opening the door for Crosby to win the game with two minutes left.
Then-rookie Ja’Marr Chase hauled in six passes for a whopping 159 yards and a touchdown. However, he was no match for Davante Adams, who cleared 200 yards and a touchdown.
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