Florida State vs Stanford Prediction, Pick & Spread for Saturday Night College Football

• The Florida State Seminoles are 17.5-point road favorites against the Stanford Cardinal Saturday night
• FSU has dropped eight straight ACC games dating back to last season
• Read below for my Florida State vs Stanford prediction, pick and spread for Saturday Night College Football

---

Two teams bringing up the rear in the ACC clash Saturday night when the Florida State Seminoles (3-3, 0-3 ACC) visit the Stanford Cardinal (2-4, 1-2 ACC) in their first-ever meeting.

The Seminoles have crashed out in conference play. They’ve dropped eight straight ACC games and are just 1-10 in conference play since the start of last season, yet they’re still a massive favorite in the college football odds.

Kickoff is set for Saturday night at Stanford Stadium in Northern California, with coverage provided by ESPN.

Florida State vs Stanford Prediction 

I don’t know if the Seminoles should be considered a 3-score favorite over any team right now. After an impressive 3-0 start, which included an opening week upset of Alabama, FSU’s season has completely unraveled.

The ‘Noles have lost three in a row, most recently a 34-31 defeat as 10.5-point home favorites against Pitt. Also included in that skid are losses to Virginia (in double OT) and 3rd-ranked Miami.

Key Offensive Stats

Despite their struggles, FSU ranks 4th nationally in scoring at 44.2 points per game. But that’s inflated from wins over East Texas A&M and Kent State, where they combined for 143 points and massive yardage totals (775 yards vs Kent, 729 vs ETAM).

Looking at just ACC play, the ‘Noles rank 15th in scoring defense, allowing 36 points per game. They’ve given up a season-high 321 passing yards against Pitt and have allowed eight touchdown passes in their last three games.

Stanford’s defense is just as porous, allowing 30.2 points per game overall while the Cardinal have dropped two of their three ACC games to start.

The Cardinal opened ACC play with a win over Boston College, but was crushed 48-20 by Virginia. Most recently they fell 34-10 at SMU, though the game was closer than the final score indicated after a pick-six sealed their fate.

Stanford is averaging just 18.8 points per game on the season, tied with North Carolina for the fewest in the ACC. That low output is part of the reason they are just 1-5-0 against the spread in six games this season.

Florida State vs Stanford Pick

• Pick: Over 54.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)

The Seminoles are 0-3-0 ATS since starting conference play. Taking away their blowout wins over non power-conference schools, Florida State’s largest margin of victory is 14 points.

In fact, their 31-17 win over Alabama is their only legitimate win on the campaign.

So rather than try to sweat out a big cover like this, I’ll target the total. The Over makes sense here.

Florida State has seen the Over cash in 5-1 in their last six games, and they’ve topped 30+ points in two of their losses. The ‘Noles score early and often, ranking 6th nationally in first-quarter scoring (12.17 PPG) and 4th in second-quarter scoring (13.83 PPG).

Plus, seven of Florida State’s last eight October games as a favorite against unranked teams has hit the Over. The Over is also 5-1 in the Seminoles’ last six games on grass.

Stanford QB Ben Gulbranson has shown he can pile up yards, throwing for 444 yards against San Jose State and 286 against Virginia. He’s been consistent with 200+ yards in four of his last five games despite the team’s struggles.

FSU’s defense certainly can be punctured. They rank 13th in the ACC in touchdown passes allowed (11) and are tied for 11th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.4).

In this first-ever conference matchup between these teams, each side’s defensive struggles should help push this past the number. With FSU’s elite red zone efficiency (93.1%) and Stanford’s weak defense, expect plenty of scoring on Saturday night.

Florida State vs Stanford Odds

The Seminoles are a hefty 17.5-point road favorite in this one. You can find this spread as high as 18.5 points, which is good as every point will be needed by the Cardinal to cover the line.

FSU’s moneyline sits at a distant -1000 at FanDuel, meaning you’d need to risk $1,000 to win $100 on the Seminoles to win straight up.

Conversely, you’d have to be a major Cardinal fan to outright bet the upset, even if it is at +660 odds.

The total is set at 54.5 points, but has some flux a half-point each way, depending on which way you want to wager. The Over is 5-1 in Cardinal’s last six games on grass and 5-1 in FSU’s last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.