F1 United States Grand Prix Odds, Picks, Predictions & Start Time

• Turn 1 Trap: One wrong move and the race order gets tossed like last week’s laundry.
• Leclerc Alert: Third on the grid, but Ferrari’s struggles make him vulnerable to a clever undercut.
• Podium Intel: The strategy battle is just getting started — scroll down for our best plays of the weekend.

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The United States Grand Prix goes green from the Circuit of the Americas. We’ve finally got a race that doesn’t require setting three alarms and a pot of coffee strong enough to melt aluminum!

Max Verstappen grabbed a somewhat surprising pole and will have Lando Norris starting alongside in P2. Championship leader Oscar Piastri will have some traffic to navigate from sixth on the grid.

It’s lights out and away we go live on ESPN at 3pm ET.

United States Grand Prix Odds

Max Verstappen sits at -185, translating to about a 65% implied chance to win – signaling that it’s back to business as usual for the Dutch robot. Lando Norris at +165 has roughly a 38% shot to cash in on that McLaren pace. George Russell, at +2000, sits around 5%, about the same odds as everyone making it through Turn 1 at COTA without a carbon-fiber confetti show.

Odds from DraftKings as of 11:36 pm on October 18, 2025.

Piastri enters the US GP as the -115 favorite in the F1 Drivers’ Championship odds, with Verstappen second at +220 and Norris third at +270.

United States Grand Prix Picks & Predictions

• Oscar Piastri over Charles Leclerc (-105, DraftKings)
• George Russell over Charles Leclerc (-110, DraftKings)

The United States Grand Prix takes place at the Circuit of the Americas in Texas, with 56 laps around a 5.513-kilometer layout that actually allows overtaking for once. Two DRS zones should help keep things lively, and Pirelli is rolling out its stepped tire compounds, meaning the selections aren’t consecutive. Combine that with the heavy tire degradation we’ve seen in practice, and a two-stop strategy looks like the safest way to survive Sunday without turning the final laps into a slip-and-slide.

This race is notoriously difficult to handicap, mostly because Turn 1 at COTA has a way of turning even the simplest starts into utter chaos. Yesterday’s sprint race was a perfect example: both McLarens ended up flattened into what could generously be called modern art, the running order got completely scrambled, and drivers were frantically heading to the pits for new front wings and fresh tires after the dust settled. If Turn 1 bites, anything can happen — and more often than not, it does.

Going slow-mo for another look at *that* dramatic #F1Sprint collision 🎥💥#F1 #USGP pic.twitter.com/YdwhKBPAxk

— Formula 1 (@F1) October 19, 2025

But let’s assume, for a moment, that all three front-runners make it through Turn 1 in one piece and in the order of the grid. Oscar Piastri hasn’t shown the outright best race pace this weekend, but over the course of 2025, McLaren’s tire management has made him one of the strongest drivers in race conditions. That advantage didn’t translate in qualifying, which is why he finds himself starting a bit deeper in the field in sixth.

George Russell has been the model of consistency, getting more out of the Mercedes than anyone could have expected at the start of the season. The Ferraris, on the other hand, continue to struggle in nearly every department — tire wear, race strategy, overall pace — leaving Scuderia winless this season. Last year’s sparkling 1-2 finish now feels more like a fever dream than a blueprint for success. If Ferrari were any slower, they’d need a tow truck between turns.

For today, Charles Leclerc starts third with Russell beside him in fourth. If strategy plays out as expected, both Piastri and Russell should be able to undercut Leclerc with their stronger race pace and tire life, turning this midfield shuffle into a podium opportunity.