Will the Dodgers Trade for Paul Skenes? See Odds According to Prediction Market

• Kalshi prediction market shows the odds of Paul Skenes landing with the Dodgers by December 31st
• Trading Skenes would require gutting LA’s prospect pool, including untouchable Asian stars
• See the odds of Skenes being traded to the LA Dodgers, plus our analysis and prediction

The Paul Skenes to Los Angeles trade rumors are getting out of hand. Yes, the Dodgers need another ace. Yes, they have the prospect capital to make it happen. But Kalshi’s new prediction market is telling us what we already know. This blockbuster isn’t happening anytime soon.

Kalshi is offering a market on whether the Dodgers will acquire Pittsburgh’s ace pitcher before December 31st, 2025. It’s one of their sports prediction markets where you can bet on specific outcomes beyond traditional game lines. You buy “Yes” contracts if you think the trade happens, or “No” contracts if you think Skenes stays put. Each contract pays out $1 if you’re right.

Let’s dissect this Skenes to Dodgers prediction market, determine what the odds mean and whether this is worth your money.

Paul Skenes to Dodgers Odds

At +1329, you’d win $1,329 for every $100 wagered if Skenes somehow ends up in Dodger blue by year’s end. The -1329 on “No” tells the real story. You’d need to risk $1,392 just to profit $100. With only $402 in total volume, even the sharps aren’t taking this market seriously.

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Odds as of Nov. 5 at Kalshi. Grab a Kalshi promo code to begin trading on MLB futures.

Why the Timeline Kills This Trade

The Pirates aren’t trading Paul Skenes before December 31st. Period. Jon Heyman reported a Pirates source saying there’s “no chance, no way, no how” of moving their ace, and that’s exactly right for now.

Skenes just finished his sophomore season with a 1.96 ERA and has four years of team control remaining through 2029. He won’t even hit arbitration until 2027, meaning Pittsburgh is paying him peanuts ($875,000) for Cy Young production. Why would they give that up?

I’m convinced Skenes will eventually be traded. The Pirates have shown zero ability to build around generational talent, and Bob Nutting won’t pay $400 million to $500 million when the time comes. But that trade will happen in 2027 or 2028, when Pittsburgh can maximize its return with one or two years of control remaining.

The most likely scenario plays out like every other Pirates ace before him. They’ll hold onto Skenes while his salary is controllable, extract maximum value from ticket sales and merchandise, then trade him before free agency. It’s the same playbook they ran with Gerrit Cole, who got dealt with two years of control left.

The Untouchable Asian Stars Problem

Here’s what really kills any chance of a Skenes deal: the asking price would almost certainly include Roki Sasaki or Hyeseong Kim, and that is simply not going to happen.

The Dodgers have built an empire on their connection to Japanese and Korean markets. Trading Sasaki would be organizational malpractice. These players specifically chose LA over better offers elsewhere, and Sasaki has family tragedy in his background that makes him especially beloved by teammates and fans.

The effects on culture and business would be terrible. One fan on social media put it best: “The Dodgers do not want to win now; they want to win forever.” That means protecting their pipeline to international talent, not mortgaging it for one pitcher.

Even without the Asian stars, we’re still talking about gutting the farm system. Multiple reports suggest it would take a haul that dwarfs what the White Sox received for Garrett Crochet, who fetched two top-100 prospects for just two years of control. Skenes has double that.

Dodgers Actual Free Agency Needs

Now, let’s look at what the Dodgers really need this offseason. They hit only .204 in the playoffs, and both Mookie Betts and Max Muncy struggled for long periods. The team scored more than four runs in just four of their last 13 playoff games.

That’s why the Dodgers are targeting Kyle Tucker (+330 odds to sign with LA) instead of trading away their prospects for another pitcher. Tucker would instantly upgrade what was a glaring weakness throughout 2025. Michael Conforto hit .204 with a .604 OPS and struggled defensively in left field all season.

LA’s rotation for 2026 already features Shohei Ohtani returning as a two-way player, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and potentially Sasaki stretched back out as a starter. They don’t need Skenes. They need someone who can actually hit in October.

The bullpen is also a disaster that needs immediate attention. Tanner Scott’s four-year, $72 million deal turned into a nightmare with a 4.74 ERA and 10 blown saves. They’ll be shopping for relievers like Edwin Díaz or Devin Williams, not gutting their system for a starter.

My Skenes Trade Prediction

If I had to bet this Skenes to LA market on Kalshi, I’m hammering “No” at -1392, even with the terrible odds. There’s simply no pathway to this trade happening by December 31st.

The Pirates have every incentive to hold Skenes through at least 2027. They’re making money off his jersey sales and ticket sales while paying him nothing. The Dodgers won’t gut their farm system and destroy their Asian market connections when they already have five quality starters.

The 7% probability Kalshi shows is honestly too high. This should be closer to 1% or 2% given the December 31st deadline. Baseball’s winter meetings don’t even start until December 7th. That leaves about three weeks to negotiate one of the biggest trades in baseball history. Not happening.

Save your Skenes speculation for 2027, when the Pirates finally admit they can’t afford him and start shopping him with two years of control left. Until then, this is just fantasy baseball for people who don’t understand how front offices actually operate. The Dodgers are focused on winning a third straight World Series, which means targeting Kyle Tucker, not Paul Skenes.