BYU vs UConn Expert Picks & Predictions (Nov. 15)

• #3 UConn is a 3.5-point favorite over #7 BYU in college hoops on Saturday
• Cougars freshman phenom AJ Dybantsa is averaging 18 points and 7 boards this season
• See below for my BYU vs UConn picks and predictions

It may be early, but one of the most anticipated games of the college basketball season goes down Saturday. #7 BYU (3-0) faces #3 UConn (3-0) in Boston as part of the Hall of Fame Series, in a homecoming for Cougars phenom AJ Dybantsa. The freshman has been turning heads since he arrived on campus, but online sportsbooks aren’t expecting a triumphant return in the college basketball odds.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7 pm ET from TD Garden in Boston, MA, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my BYU vs UConn expert picks and predictions, plus the latest odds.

BYU vs UConn Expert Picks & Predictions

• UConn -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings

UConn opened as 3.5-point favorites, but that number didn’t last for long, now sitting at -6.5. KenPom projects this game as a 6-point Huskies win, and the market quickly catches up to the advanced analytics site. However, despite the line move, I’m still taking the Huskies to cover.

Both of these teams are legit March Madness odds contenders, but there are holes to poke in BYU. Let’s start with Thursday’s unsettling news. Cougars starting forward Kennard Davis Jr. was arrested in the morning under suspicion of DUI. BYU is the most strict program in college sports, and there’s no way they’ll allow a player to suit up two days after an incident like this.

Davis’ status was already in doubt after he missed the Cougars’ previous game due to injury. His absence was attributed to a lacklustre BYU performance versus Delaware, with head coach Kevin Young claiming the team desperately missed his size, toughness and versatility. The Cougars ultimately overcame a 13-point deficit to win that contest, but it highlighted potential depth issues for the program.

Those issues are likely to rear their ugly head in this matchup, as the team already ranks outside the top-50 in defensive rating. That’s problematic against UConn, who are fourth in offensive rating.

UConn 2025 Advanced Stats

The Huskies are led by Tarris Reed Jr. on the interior, who has dominated the opposition so far. The senior is averaging 19 points and 10 boards, while chipping in 3.5 blocks per game on defense. UConn is also getting 18 and 17 points, respectively, from Solo Ball and Alex Karaban, with the duo combining for 15 threes already through three games.

The level of competition for the Huskies hasn’t been great so far, but you can only beat who’s on your schedule. UConn has done just that in convincing fashion, with a +38 average point differential per game so far.

Defensively, the Huskies are yielding just 55 points per game and are limiting opponents to a 38.7% shooting percentage. Opposing teams are averaging only 18 made field goals per contest, while UConn is forcing a turnover on roughly 20% of enemy possessions.

That type of defense is a nightmare for any player to face, even one as talented as Dybantsa. The projected top pick in next year’s NBA Draft grew up 25 miles south of Boston and is living up to his preseason billing. Dybantsa is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds per game so far, while shooting 57.5% from the floor.

The Cougars are also getting 20 and 18 points per game, respectively, from Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III, but this team is lacking in the efficiency department. They’re 95th in effective field goal percentage this year, and 108th in shooting efficiency. 140 teams average more threes per night, and 159 programs are better on the offensive glass.

Those issues haven’t hurt BYU yet mainly due to a soft schedule. Their last two opponents have been ranked outside the top-280, so they’re in for a shock when they see how aggressive and well-positioned UConn is on every defensive possession.

BYU vs UConn Odds

By the time we reach tip-off, this line could move even further in the Huskies’ favor. I’m locking in UConn -6.5 right now, with that spread available at both DraftKings and Bet365. Total-wise, the market varies, with the over/under sitting anywhere from 152.5 to 154.5 depending on where you look.

Odds as of Nov. 14. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code get a bonus to bet on college basketball.

Per the college basketball public betting trends, none of BYU’s three games have cleared 154 points to date, while only one of the Huskies three contests has gone over that number.