Boise State vs San Diego State Predictions, Picks & Odds for Saturday Night

• The top two teams in the Mountain West square off
• Boise State turns to a new quarterback
• Read below for my Boise State vs San Diego State prediction and pick

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The Boise State Broncos (6-3, 4-1 in the Mountain West) and San Diego State (7-2, 4-1 in the Mountain West) battle as both teams look to rebound from a conference blowout loss. Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego plays host to a 10:30 PM ET kickoff on Saturday, Nov. 15. CBS Sports Network will broadcast this de facto play-in game for the Mountain West Championship Game

I have locked in my Boise State vs San Diego State prediction and provided a pick for this Mountain West showdown. I have also given the updated odds.

Boise State vs San Diego State Prediction

• San Diego State 24, Boise State 17

After beginning the season No.25 in the AP Poll, Boise State took a Week 1 loss to South Florida. They reeled off three straight wins before losing in South Bend. The Broncos pulled off another three-game win streak before losing their previous game to Fresno State, torpedoing any minuscule chance the Broncos had of returning to the CFP.

Starter Maddux Madsen has been ruled out, so the Broncos will turn to Max Cutforth. Cutforth had a shaky relief appearance last week, completing less than half of his passes and tossing two to Fresno State. The sophomore now draws a brutal matchup against a top-five scoring defense.

He is not Ashton Jeanty, but Dylan Riley has been quite effective for Boise State. He is averaging 7.2 yards per carry, and he has scored seven touchdowns this season. Both Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod have also been solid rushers, essentially averaging 5.0 yards per carry between them.

#BoiseState sophomore RB Dylan Riley has consistently been one of the best closers in college football this season.

He leads the FBS in fourth quarter rushing yards… by 85 yards!

"𝙊𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡𝙡, 𝙞𝙩'𝙨 𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩 𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙝𝙚'𝙨 𝙗𝙚𝙚𝙣… pic.twitter.com/uxIOrCYgTE

— Jay Tust (@Jay_Tust) October 31, 2025

Four different Broncos have between 21 and 26 catches this season. Latrell Caples leads the team with 26 catches. Chris Marshall leads the team in yards (467) and conference in yards per catch (19.5). Ben Ford leads the team with five receiving touchdowns.

Boise State has picked off 11 passes this season, with cornerback A’Marion McCoy leading the conference with four interceptions and two pick-sixes. Safety Ty Benefield leads the team in tackles and tackles for a loss.

Like Boise State, the Aztecs entered their previous game with an undefeated conference record before collapsing against Hawaii. They had opened 7-1 with three shutout wins. San Diego State had a shot at the CFP, but that is almost certainly out of the question now as the American winner (or James Madison) will almost certainly represent the Group of Six in the CFP.

Former Michigan quarterback (and National Champion) Jayden Denegal has cooled off after a solid start. In his last three games, Denegal has five interceptions with only one passing touchdown. He is completing a shade under 60% of his passes this season.

Owner of one of the best names in college football, Lucky Sutton has been a strong back for the Aztecs this season. He is averaging 99.8 yards per game, and he has a healthy eight rushing touchdowns. Barring a disaster, Sutton will clear 1,000 rushing yards by the end of the regular season.

Jordan Napier is the go-to option in the passing offense, more than doubling any other Aztec in receptions. He has 311 more receiving yards than the No.2 option, Donovan Brown. Receiver Jacob Bostick has turned 11 catches into a team-leading three touchdowns.

Most yards per route run, FBS WRs:

Jordan Napier, San Diego State: 5.03
Cade Harris, Air Force: 5.02
Mario Craver, Texas A&M: 4.42
Chris Barnes, Wake Forest: 4.23
Demarcus Lacey, Marshall: 4.10
Hank Beatty, Illinois: 4.06
Omari Hayes, Tulane: 3.99
Makai Lemon, USC: 3.72
Kam… pic.twitter.com/R66hAYputM

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 21, 2025

Owen Chambliss leads the conference with 49 solo tackles. Not to be outdone by the Broncos, San Diego State also has a cornerback with multiple pick-sixes in Chris Johnson. Johnson has three interceptions and a conference-leading 146 return yards.

Boise State vs San Diego State Pick

• San Diego State -1.5

Here is my primary justification for backing San Diego State -1.5:

• With Madsen out, I am selling the Broncos on the road. Madsen has his issues, but he is at least a solid G6 quarterback. Cutforth is entirely unproven, enabling an elite San Diego defense to key in on the run and force Cutforth into a negative game script. San Diego State has a 92.9 overall PFF defense grade this season.
• San Diego State is an exceptional 7-2 ATS this season, going 6-1 outright as a favorite. Before last week, they had not just covered, but fairly easily covered every game as favorites besides their three-point win over Northern Illinois (-1.5 for the game).
• Boise State has a 2-1-1 ATS record on the road, but this mark is misleading as both covers were by within a point. The Broncos covered versus Air Force by winning by 12 as 11-point favorites. Against Notre Dame, Boise State covered +21.5 with a 21-point loss.

Boise State vs San Diego State Odds

The final line has San Diego State as a narrow home favorite, essentially just the points given for home-field advantage. The spread ranges from -1.5 to -2.5, depending on the sportsbook. The total is set between 41 and 41.5 points.

Over bettors can get over 41 at Caesars for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 41.5 at BetMGM for -110 odds.

San Diego State bettors can get the Aztecs at -1.5 on the spread at FanDuel (-115 odds) or -125 on the moneyline at Fanatics. Boise State bettors can get the Broncos at +2.5 on the spread at BetMGM (-110 odds) or +108 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

Boise State vs San Diego State, Last Five Matchups

Boise State holds a 6-4 lifetime edge in this Mountain West matchup. Despite having a losing record, San Diego State’s .400 winning percentage against Boise State is the highest by any active Mountain West school, beating out the school that beat Boise State last week: Fresno State (.346).

Surprisingly, future Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty was not the star of the show in Boise State’s 56-24 win over San Diego State last year. Maddux Madsen threw four touchdowns including three to Latrell Caples. Jeanty did have 149 rushing yards and two touchdowns, though.

On the San Diego State side, future Wisconsin quarterback Danny O’Neil threw for 155 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in defeat. Marquez Cooper had 101 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.