Louisiana vs Arkansas State Prediction, Spread & How to Watch Thursday CFB

• Arkansas State is a 2.5-point favorite over Louisiana in Sun Belt college football action on Thursday
• The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 115th in scoring defense and 110th in yards allowed per play
• See below for my Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction, plus the latest spread and how to watch Thursday CFB

The NFL has some competition for eyeballs on Thursday night, as the Sun Belt conference is giving us a Louisiana (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt) vs Arkansas State (5-5, 4-2 Sun Belt) matchup to sweat.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Red Wolves as small favorites per the latest college football odds, but I’m predicting a comfortable victory for the home team in my Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction.

Louisiana vs Arkansas State Prediction

Both teams are coming off a bye, so they should be rested and ready to roll for this contest. Louisiana State is fresh off back-to-back wins, while Arkansas State had won four straight before a one-score loss to division leader Southern Miss last time out.

The Red Wolves were actually in position to win the game late, but turned the ball over in the red zone on their final drive. Arkansas State covered as a 6.5-point ‘dog, but the defeat put them behind the eight-ball in the battle for the West Division lead. The Red Wolves need to win out and have Southern Miss drop its final two games, which seems unlikely given the Golden Eagles schedule.

Nevertheless, there’s plenty to play for on Thursday for Arkansas State, and I expect them to find offensive success versus a dreadful Ragin’ Cajuns defense. Louisiana enters play ranked 115th in scoring defense, 110th in yards per play, and 113th in defensive stop rate. They can’t get off the field on third down, and have been eviscerated by enemy passing and rushing attacks alike.

No one will confuse the Red Wolves with a CFP odds contender, but QB Jaylen Raynor is completing over 72% of his passes in his last two starts, and can march Arkansas State up and down the field with his arm or his legs. Raynor has thrown for 578 yards in his last two outings, and has double-digit carries in eight of his last nine starts.

Louisiana Defensive Stats

On the other side of the ball, the Red Wolves will look to continue their strong defensive output. Arkansas State ranks 55th in defensive stop rate this season, and 23rd in opponent red zone scoring percentage. They’ve held their last four opponents to an average of just 17.25 points per game, and should have no trouble generating pressure against Louisiana. The Red Wolves are top-17 in sack rate this season, while the Ragin’ Cajuns grade out 97th in pass block win rate per PFF.

Don’t be fooled by Louisiana’s recent box scores, because this is not a good offensive football team. Yes, they hung 42 points on Texas State, and 31 points on South Alabama, but those are two of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt. If you remove those games from their resume, they’re averaging just 23 points per contest.

To make matters worse, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 1-4 on the road this season, with an average margin of defeat of 11.7 points.

Louisiana vs Arkansas State Spread

The best book to bet Arkansas State -2.5 as of Wednesday is FanDuel. They’re offering the Red Wolves at a discount, as most other books around the industry have this game priced at -3. Total-wise the contest sits at 54.5, and I’d lean under based on the strength of the Arkansas State defense.

Per the college football public betting trends, unders have been an extremely profitable bet in Red Wolves contests this season. That side of the total is 8-2 thus far, with the under cashing in eight straight games.

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Louisiana vs Arkansas How to Watch

Kick-off for this Sun Belt clash is set for 7:30 pm ET from Centennial Bank Stadium, in Jonesboro, AR, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast is currently calling for light rain at kickoff and throughout the game, with 64 degree temperatures, and moderate wind gusts.