Florida State vs NC State Prediction, Line & Betting Splits (Nov. 21)

• Florida State is a 4.5-point favorite over NC State in ACC action on Friday Nov. 21
• The Wolfpack Ranks 120th in scoring defense, and 131st in yards per play
• See my Florida State vs NC State prediction, plus the latest betting line and betting splits

The Friday night lights shine on the ACC this week as Florida State (5-5, 2-5 ACC) visits NC State (5-5, 2-4 ACC). Bowl eligibility is on the line for the winner of this matchup, and online sportsbooks are bullish on the Seminoles per the latest college football odds. I completely agree and will be backing them in my Florida State vs NC State prediction below.

Kickoff is set for 8pm ET from Carter-Finley Stadium, in Raleigh, NC, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Florida State vs NC State Prediction

The Seminoles have had their issues this season, and were probably overrated coming out of the gate after beating a top CFP odds contender in Alabama. After starting 3-0, they fell off a cliff, but recently they’ve showed signs of life. Florida State enters play with wins in two of their last three ACC games, pummelling both Virgina Tech and Wake Forest.

They scored 34+ points in both outings and face a dream matchup versus a putrid Wolfpack defense. NC State is 120th in scoring defense, and has surrendered at least 36 points in four straight games.

The Wolfpack’s upset win over Georgia Tech temporarily threw everyone off their scent, but they showed their true colors last week against Miami. NC State surrendered 41 points, and were outgained 581 to 143. They’ve surrendered 340+ passing yards in four straight contests, opening the door for a Tommy Castellanos ceiling game.

NC State Defensive Stats

Castellanos has excelled in the Florida State offense this season, throwing for 2,300 yards and 12 TD, while rushing for another 404 yards and 8 scores. His Seminoles rank 28th in scoring, and 22nd in yards per play, while maintaining one of the best third down conversion rates.

Florida State is converting 49.59% of third downs this season, while only a handful of teams have allowed a higher third down conversion rate than the Wolfpack.

On the other side of the ball, it’s tough to get excited about the NC State offense. They’re slightly below average in most offensive metrics, and turn the ball over way too often. CJ Bailey’s 3.03% interception rate is one of the worst marks in college football, while the Wolfpack have been held to 7 points in two of their past four outings.

Granted, both of those matchups were against top-20 teams, but the Florida State defense has some bite. The Seminoles rank top-40 in scoring defense, yards per play, and rushing yards allowed. Their 7.72% sack rate is 24th best in the country, while Bailey has a 36.0 passing grade per PFF under pressure.

This feels like a complete smash spot for Florida State, and I’d be comfortable laying up to 6.5 points in this matchup.

Florida State vs NC State Line

The best book to bet Florida State -4.5 is BetMGM. They’re offering the spread at -118 odds, while most of the other books have bumped the number up to Seminoles -5.5.

Total-wise, the consensus is 59.5, with Bet365 offering the lowest juice on the over, and Caesars showing the best price on the under.

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Florida State vs NC State Betting Splits

Per the college football public betting trends, the spread ticket count and handle favors Florida State. They’re accounting for 64% of the ATS wagers as of Thursday afternoon, and 73% of the money.

Total-wise, money is flooding in on the under. That side is garnering 83% of the tickets and 78% of the handle. It’s a similar story for the moneyline, as 89% of the bets and handle are backing the Seminoles.