Wild vs Penguins Prediction, Starting Goalies & Best Friday NHL Pick (Nov. 21)

• The Penguins are -120 favorites at home against the Wild on Friday night
• Minnesota has scored first in 10 straight games, but is just 4-8 all-time at PPG Paints Arena
• See my Wild vs Penguins prediction, starting goalies, and best Friday NHL pick below

The Minnesota Wild visit the Pittsburgh Penguins Friday night in a matchup that’s been completely one-sided at PPG Paints Arena. Minnesota is on an impressive 7-2-1 run, but now they face their house of horrors in Pittsburgh.

The Friday NHL odds price the Pens as -120 favorites, and I’ll explain why they’re worthy of that price tag in my Wild vs Penguins prediction.

Puck drops at 7:00 PM ET from PPG Paints Arena. The game’s available on regional sports networks with no national broadcast.

Wild vs Penguins Prediction

My Wild vs Penguins prediction backs Pittsburgh at home. PPG Paints Arena has been a nightmare for Minnesota. The Wild are just 4-8-0 there since 2010 and allow four goals per game at this venue, their worst mark at any road rink in the NHL.

The special teams mismatch should be what decides this game. Pittsburgh’s power play is running wild at 34.1% (tops in the NHL), while Minnesota’s penalty kill is stuck in slow-mo at 72.9% (28th overall). That’s the biggest edge in this matchup. When the Penguins draw penalties, they score.

Minnesota’s recent hot streak seems unsustainable. They won Wednesday despite being outshot 45-18 by Carolina, the largest negative shot differential in a win by any NHL team this season. Their 1.038 PDO over the last 10 games signals regression is coming. You can’t keep winning when you’re getting dominated in shots.

Wild vs Pens Stats Comparison

Pittsburgh has the edge in underlying numbers too. They control 50.21% Corsi, 50.44% Fenwick, and 50.99% of shots over their last 10 games. Minnesota sits below 45% in all three categories despite their 7-2-1 record. The Wild are getting outplayed but finding ways to win. That doesn’t work long-term.

The Penguins already beat Minnesota 4-1 on October 30 in this building. Sidney Crosby has 40 points in 27 career games against the Wild (1.48 points per game). He owns this matchup historically, and Pittsburgh’s young guns are stepping up. 18-year-old Ben Kindel has five goals, fourth among NHL teenagers.

Pittsburgh hasn’t played since last weekend after traveling to Sweden for the Global Series. Now back home and having several days to prepare, they should be well-rested and determined to give fans something to cheer for in their return.

Wild vs Penguins Starting Goalies

Filip Gustavsson gets the nod for Minnesota, while Arturs Silovs is between the pipes for Pittsburgh. On paper, that’s another edge for the Penguins.

Goalie Matchup

Gustavsson allowed four goals when these teams met October 30. He’s been inconsistent with a 5-7-2 record and .897 save percentage. Silovs has been better at .917, allowing just three total goals in his past two starts, including the Global Series.

Best Friday NHL Pick

Pittsburgh on the moneyline at -120 is my best NHL bet Friday. The venue history, special-teams mismatch, and all the nerdy stats point to the Penguins being on the right side. Plus, Minnesota is 1-7 in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record.

Looking for bonus value? The under 6 at -110 is worth a look. The under has cashed in 21 of Pittsburgh’s last 29 Friday games, plus it’s 4-1 in the Pens’ last five vs. the West and 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five overall.

Minnesota has scored first in 10 straight games, the longest streak in franchise history. But since October 30, they’re allowing just 2.10 goals per game. Before that? It was 3.91 per game. The improvement’s been dramatic, but Pittsburgh’s offense can break through.

The Wild are missing Ryan Hartman, Marco Rossi, and Vladimir Tarasenko. Pittsburgh is missing Richard Rakell (IR) and a few depth pieces, but Crosby and Evgeni Malkin remain healthy. When both studs score in the same game, Pittsburgh’s 116-10-6 all-time.

Lock in Pittsburgh -120 and consider the under. The Penguins own this building against Minnesota, and their power play against that penalty kill creates an edge worthy of their favored moneyline price.