Colts vs Chiefs Picks, Predictions & Props to Target

• The Chiefs are 3-point home favorites over the Colts in Week 12
• Daniel Jones has 9 turnover-worthy plays in his last two starts
• See below for my Colts vs Chiefs picks and predictions, plus props to target

The biggest game on Sunday’s early slate features the surprising Colts (8-2, 2-2 away) taking on the Chiefs (5-5, 4-1 home). KC boasts a .500 record this late into the season for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career, but online sportsbooks are expecting them to take care of business per the latest NFL odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO, and on CBS. With Missouri sports betting launching on December 1st, KC residents will want to visit Missouri betting apps to take advantage of exclusive sign-up offers.

Here are my Colts vs Chiefs picks and predictions, plus my favorite props to target.

Colts vs Chiefs Picks and Predictions

The spread for this game varies anywhere from KC -3 to -4, so make sure you check out the best football betting apps to get the best price. Mahomes and the Chiefs have been money as short favorites since he entered the league, and I’m backing KC against the spread in my Colts vs Chiefs picks.

Let’s start with the Indy side of things. They’ve taken the league by storm, jumping out to an 8-2 record, but how many great wins are on their resume? Just two of their victories have come against teams holding a playoff position. One was against Denver, in a game they should have lost if not for a bogus Broncos penalty on the game-winning field goal attempt.

The other was versus a Chargers team that now looks like the top AFC candidate to fall out of their playoff position. Daniel Jones has looked more like his 2024 self over the last few games, and I’m confident Steve Spagnuolo can dial up a game plan to put him in a pretzel.

Jones has turned the ball over eight times in his last two starts, and has more turnover-worthy plays (9), than he had in his first eight games. Both the Steelers and Falcons defenses were able to wreak havoc on the Indy offensive line, and I’m expecting KC to deploy all kinds of crazy blitzes to mess with Jones.

Since Week 8, Jones ranks 25th in EPA/drop back and 17th in expected completion percentage. If NFL MVP odds candidate Jonathan Taylor can’t get going, or if the Colts fall behind early, the offensive burden is going to fall on Jones, and I don’t think he can handle it.

Stopping Taylor is the key to this game. He currently leads the NFL in virtually every rushing category, while the Chiefs are slightly above average in run defense per PFF. It’s going to take an all-world effort from Chris Jones to wreck this Indy rushing attack, but he’s shined on the big stage before and can do so again.

Kansas City Offense Stats

As for the Chiefs, this is a kitchen sink game. They currently have a 59% chance of making the postseason, which is unheard of for any Mahomes team. Up until last week’s loss, they were still a top-three Super Bowl odds contender. Mahomes is enjoying his best statistical season since 2022, commanding an offense that ranks second in EPA/play and fourth in success rate.

Indy’s defense has sprung a few leaks in recent weeks, allowing 24+ points in four of their last five games. The Colts are especially vulnerable over the middle, and I expect Mahomes to spam them with crossing routes to Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.

There’s no QB I’d rather back in a big game than Mahomes, and it doesn’t hurt that the trends support Chiefs -3 on Sunday. Per the NFL public betting, Mahomes is 30-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less. KC has lost back-to-back games coming in, and Mahomes has never lost three straight in his NFL career.

The two-time MVP has lost two straight five times, and in the next game he’s 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS.

Colts vs Chiefs Player Props

I mentioned Kelce earlier, and the big tight end is in a smash spot on Sunday in the NFL player props market. Mr. Taylor Swift leads all Chiefs receivers in targets, catches, receiving yards and touchdowns, and has 167 more yards after the catch than any of his teammates.

That spells trouble for an Indy defense that bleeds production to tight ends. The Colts have allowed the third-most catches to that position this season, and the sixth-most receiving yards.

I’m also looking to target the over on Alec Pierce’s longest reception. That line currently sits at 25.5, a number he’s cleared in all but one game so far this season. Pierce has recorded 10 explosive catches in 2025, and is averaging 20.9 yards per reception.

The KC secondary does grade out well per PFF, but seven defenders have allowed at least one 26+ yard catch in their coverage this season.

• Alec Pierce Longest Reception Over 25.5 Yards (-114 at FanDuel)