Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Pick and Spread for SNF

• The Broncos are 6.5-point road favorites over the Commanders on Sunday Night Football
• Denver has won eight straight games coming in
• See my Broncos vs Commanders prediction and pick below, plus the latest spread for SNF

I hope you have a strong stomach, because you’re going to need to back the Commanders (3-8, 2-3 home) as home ‘dogs versus the Broncos (9-2, 3-2 away) on Sunday Night Football. Every trend, every metric and everyone you talk football with is going to implore you not to bet Washington, but sometimes you have to zag when everyone else is zigging.

The Commanders are currently listed as 6.5-point underdogs per the latest SNF odds, and that number is simply too high based on what we’ve seen from Bo Nix and Denver at various points of this season.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from Northwest Stadium, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Broncos vs Commanders prediction and pick, as well as the latest spread for SNF.

Broncos vs Commanders Prediction and Pick

I promise you this: there is no more square side than Denver -6.5 this week. Vegas doesn’t put up a new tower every year because chalky favorites cover. They’re going to need Washington for the lungs on Sunday night, and it’s never a bad thing to be on the same side as the sportsbooks.

The Broncos may be a Super Bowl odds contender record wise, but how many championship teams put up a measly 10 points at home versus the Raiders? Or travel all the way to London and muster only 13 points against the Jets. Sure, Bo Nix has had his moments this season, but the advanced numbers don’t look too favourably upon him.

Bo Nix Advanced Stats

Nix ranks 23rd in EPA + completion percentage over expectation, and 30th in success rate. He’s averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt, and still isn’t completing over 61% of his throws.

Nix and the Denver offense ranks middle of the pack in most offensive categories, and don’t do anything extremely well. They’re below league average in yards per play, third down conversion rate and penalties, and go through long stretches where nothing seems to be clicking.

Their defense is where their bread is buttered, as few teams can match their talent on that side of the ball. The Broncos rank number one in opponent yards per play, opponent red zone scoring percentage and touchdowns allowed, and are welcoming star corner Patrick Surtain back to the lineup after a prolonged injury.

You’d think Denver would be able to contain the Washington offense with little trouble, but the Commanders have actually moved the ball pretty well this season. Washington enters play ranked 10th in yards per play. They’re fourth in rushing yards per game, and second in red zone TD scoring percentage.

Marcus Mariota will start once again in place of Jayden Daniels, but that’s not a deal breaker. Mariota has a higher completion percentage and yards per attempt than Daniels this season, and is just as mobile in the pocket against a fierce Broncos pass rush.

If you want one thing to feel good about before clicking Commanders +6.5, consider this. Washington is coming off a bye and has turned over defensive play calling duties to Dan Quinn. The Commanders have been getting eviscerated by playing too much man coverage, something that Quinn will correct. He prefers a much heavier zone approach, and that just happens to be Nix’s Kryptonite.

Nix ranks 26th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR versus zone coverage, compared to seventh versus man looks. He’s thrown 5 INT against zone schemes, and that type of defense always has eyes on him, making it harder to take off and run.

Denver may be riding an eight-game winning streak, but they’ve had fallen behind in each of those contests. They’re 0-3 ATS in their last three games when favored by more than 3.5 points, and I’m betting that number falls to 0-4 after Sunday Night Football.

DEN Broncos vs WAS Commanders Spread

Before making any Sunday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. You can currently get Washington +6.5 at a few shops like DraftKings and Bet365, while some other commercial books have lowed the spread to +5.5.

Total-wise, the number varies between 43 and 43.5, and there’s a serious argument to be made for betting the under in this contest.

Odds as of Nov. 29. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on SNF.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, the under is 8-3 in Denver games so far this season, falling short of the total by an average of 3.3 points per game.