ACC Championship Preview: Virginia vs Duke Prediction & Line

• Inexplicably, five-loss Duke can win the ACC
• With a win, Virginia is likely to be the No.11 team in the CFP
• Continue reading for my early Virginia vs Duke prediction as well as the line for the ACC Championship Game

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The No.18 Virginia Cavaliers (10-2, 7-1 in the ACC) and Duke Blue Devils (7-5, 6-2 in the ACC) will battle for the ACC Championship. Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will host the 8:00 PM ET kickoff on Saturday, Dec. 6. ABC will broadcast the game.

Keep reading for the line for Virginia vs Duke, as well as my early Virginia vs Duke prediction for this old coastal rivalry.

Virginia vs Duke Prediction for ACC Championship

• Virginia 27, Duke 24

I’m predicting Virginia squeaks out a win over Duke to book the school’s first trip to the College Football Playoff. In all likelihood, Virginia will be the only ACC representative in the CFP.

Virginia Cavaliers Analysis

Virginia has its first 10-win season since 1989. With a win on Saturday (or in their bowl game), the Cavaliers will set the school record with 11 wins.

After an early (non-conference) loss to North Carolina State, the Cavaliers started rolling. They upset then-No.8 Florida State in double overtime to launch up into the polls, eventually rising as high as No.12 in the AP Poll. Virginia tripped up versus Wake Forest, but the Cavaliers rebounded to beat Duke and Virginia Tech in their last two games.

Chandler Morris may be on his fourth school, but he has found a home in Charlottesville. The North Texas (by way of Oklahoma and TCU) transfer has 19 total touchdowns this season against seven interceptions. He will likely cross 3,000 total yards at some point in UVA’s bowl season.

The Cavaliers have the ACC’s top rusher in J’Mari Taylor. Taylor rushed for 997 yards and 14 touchdowns in the regular season, and he added 39 catches out of the backfield. Taylor has three games with 100 rushing yards, including 133 versus Duke.

🤔 Where have we seen this before? J'Mari to the house 🏠

Hoos take a 7-0 lead in the first

📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/4CsuRUvCUR

— Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) November 30, 2025

In the passing game, Morris relies on Trell Harris. Harris, formerly of Kent State, leads the Cavs with 56 catches and 809 yards. His five touchdowns are tied with tight end Sage Ennis for the most on the team.

On defense, watch for Ohio State transfer Mitchell Melton. Melton leads the team with 10.0 tackles for a loss. He also has 5.0 sacks, a pick, three pass deflections, and three forced fumbles.

Duke Blue Devils Analysis

Duke’s out-of-conference escapades were nothing short of disastrous. The Blue Devils lost at home to Illinois before losing on the road against Tulane and UConn. However, Duke steadied the ship in conference, going 6-0 against unranked foes. Despite losses to both ranked teams (Georgia Tech and Virginia, both in Durham), Duke won a ridiculous five-way tiebreaker for second place in the ACC to earn its spot in the ACC Championship Game.

Tulane transfer Darian Mensah is one of the top quarterbacks in the ACC. Statistically, he is the cream of the crop, leading the ACC in passing yards and passing touchdowns. He also added a rushing touchdown last week, giving him 29 total touchdowns on the season.

The Record Breaker 👀

No one has thrown more passing touchdowns in a single season at Duke than Darian Mensah pic.twitter.com/e5009itM3N

— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) November 30, 2025

The Blue Devils have a solid stable of backs in Nate Sheppard and Anderson Castle. Sheppard leads the team with 157 carries for 865 yards (5.5 yards per carry) while Castle has scored 11 touchdowns. Sheppard has nine rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown.

Cooper Barkate is among the best receivers in the ACC. On Saturday, he is likely to top the 1,000-yard plateau. He has 63 catches, which leads the team, and his six receiving touchdowns are tied with Shamir Hagans at the top on the team.

Duke’s secondary has underperformed to some degree this year after entering the season as one of the best units in the country. However, cornerback Chandler Rivers has lived up to the hype. A potential top-100 pick, Rivers has a healthy eight pass deflections, two interceptions, and a forced fumble. Only Cal’s Hezekiah Masses and Utah State’s Noah Avinger have a higher PFF coverage grade in more snaps played than Rivers.

Virginia vs Duke Line

Virginia opens as a reasonable 3.5-point favorite in the neutral-site ACC Championship Game. The total is set between 57.5 and 58.5 points. Over bettors can bet 57.5 on DraftKings for -110 odds. Under bettors can bet under 58.5 on ESPNBet for -115 odds.

Virginia bettors can take the Cavaliers at -3.5 for +105 odds on ESPNBet, or they can take the Cavaliers on the moneyline at -162 on FanDuel. Duke bettors can get the Blue Devils on the spread at +3.5 on bet365 (-110 odds) or on the moneyline at +140 on DraftKings.

In their first matchup, Duke was 5.5-point favorites at home. The total was set at 59.5 points. The under cleared fairly easily despite a heavy scoring fourth quarter. Virginia won outright despite being road ‘dogs.

Virginia vs Duke Recent History

After being tied through 66 lifetime matchups, Virginia has won nine of the last ten games versus Duke to take a 42-34 lead in the series. The rivalry dates back to 1890, and the two schools played every season from 1963 to 2023.

Just three weeks ago, Virginia beat Duke 34-17 in Durham. At one point, Virginia went up 31-3 before Duke scored two touchdowns in quick succession in the fourth quarter. On the UVA side, J’Mari Taylor ran for 133 yards and two touchdowns. For Duke, Darian Mensah struggled, completing 51.4% of his passes and not throwing a touchdown until the fourth quarter.

ACC History for Virginia vs Duke

Virginia in ACC Championship Games

This is Virginia’s second appearance in the ACC Championship Game. Back in 2019, the Cavaliers met the buzzsaw known as Trevor Lawrence’s Clemson en route to a 62-17 shellacking. Lawrence threw four touchdowns (including three to Tee Higgins), and four different Tigers had a rushing touchdown. On the UVA side, future Rams quarterback Bryce Perkins accounted for over 300 yards and threw two touchdowns with two picks.

Virginia has never won the conference outright, but the Cavaliers were co-champions with Duke in 1989 and Florida State in 1995. (It is worth pointing out that Virginia beat Duke and Florida State head-to-head in those seasons, so they would likely have been considered outright champions under modern tiebreakers.

Duke in ACC Championship Games

Duke is also making its second ACC Championship Game appearance. In 2013, the Blue Devils took on the mighty Jameis Winston-led Florida State. The ‘Noles romped to a 45-7 win, scoring the first 45 points. Winston had four total touchdowns and 389 yards. For the Blue Devils, future 10-year NFL veteran Jamison Crowder caught nine passes for 70 yards.

Since the creation of the ACC in 1953, Duke has won the conference seven times. However, six of the seven came within the first 10 years of the conference’s existence. Since 1963, Duke has only won one ACC Championship, taking home the crown in 1989 as co-champs with Virginia.