Updated Duke vs Virginia Spread & Expert Prediction – ACC Championship

• Virginia is a modest 4-point favorite to defeat Duke in the ACC Championship game Saturday night on ABC
• The Blue Devils and Cavaliers just faced off on November 15th, with Virginia winning 34-17
• See below for the Duke vs Virginia spread, my expert prediction, and another possible bet for Saturday night

Yes, we deliver an ACC rematch on Saturday, featuring the unranked Duke Blue Devils (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) taking on the #17 Virginia Cavaliers (10-2, 8-4 ATS) in this primetime ABC-televised matchup.

The books slightly lean on Virginia to get that 11th win. That would at least offer some solace to ACC experts and our College Football odds.

This conference championship contest is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, with ABC providing the coverage.

Duke vs Virginia Spread

Virginia rolls in as a 4-point favorite on the spread for Saturday night CFB, with an updated listed total of 57.5 points. The Cavaliers stand as -180 favorites on the moneyline, with Duke coming back as +150 underdogs. We have the latest Duke vs. Virginia odds here.

A $180 wager on the favorites would pay out $100, while a $100 bet on the underdogs returns $150 should they emerge victorious. For the best primetime bets, consider Ohio State to cover the spread as they have mostly rolled against the spread all season (7-1-1 ATS).

As for the National Championship odds, Virginia is at +50000, and Duke rumbles in at +250000. Those are pretty astronomical numbers. These resemble large 5-to-10-leg parlays.

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 6. Read our DraftKings Review before wagering on Saturday CFB.

Our SBD model’s initial prediction pointed to the favorites covering the spread and the under points total hitting in the College Football lines. That was when the opening game total stood at 56.5 points.

Expert Duke vs Virginia Prediction

• Best Bet 1: Duke and Virginia Under 57.5 points (-108)

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My Duke vs Virginia expert prediction has the Cavaliers and Blue Devils scoring 57 points or less on Saturday night. Both teams have more than capable offenses, but the defenses might surprise here just enough. Matchup number one featured the Virginia offense as they stymied Duke for three quarters. The Blue Devils managed a mere three points before they scored two touchdowns in what amounted to garbage time.

The Blue Devils bend often, but they broke against Virginia and have gone 0-3 against ranked teams in 2025. Duke failed to score 20 points in any of these contests. It leads to another potential wager down below.

Duke yields the fourth most passing yards in the ACC and faces Chandler Morris, who has been a different quarterback since getting hurt against Wake Forest. He will make mistakes, which again could keep the score down. However, his toughness cannot be questioned.

QB Chandler Morris can lean on RB J’Mari Taylor. Taylor had nearly 1,000 rushing yards, but 39 catches for 219 yards as well. Taylor is a red zone pounding back with 14 touchdowns. Treli Harris is the big-play wide receiver, with Sage Ennis emerging as a solid tight end around the goal line. Both pass catchers have five touchdowns each.

Duke counters with Darian Mensah. Mensah has been unbelievable overall in 2025 with 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The problem is that when the competition steps up, the Blue Devils and Mensah step the wrong way. He had great passing yard totals against Georgia Tech and Illinois, but Virginia clogged up the secondary. Mensah only completed 18 of 35 passes while having his worst performance of the season.

Do we see Deja Vu on Saturday night? The potential exists for a lower-scoring game like the Duke-Georgia Tech contest, especially if Virginia gets an early lead.

One More Prediction For The Road?

• Best Bet 2: Virginia (-4) Over Duke (-108 via DraftKings)

Alas, the pesky SBD model has Virginia winning by a score of 29.9 to 25.4. This game is truly up to Virginia. If they force a few Duke mistakes while not making too many of their own, the Cavaliers can control the ball, win, and most importantly, cover in this rematch.