Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick, Prediction and Odds for SNF

• The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Texans on Sunday Night Football
• Houston games are a league-high 9-3 to the under this season
• See my Texans vs Chiefs pick and prediction below, plus the latest odds for SNF

We’ve got a loser leaves town match on Sunday Night Football in Week 14 as the Texans (7-5, 3-3 away) face the Chiefs (6-6, 5-1 home). Both teams enter play on the outside looking in on the AFC playoff picture, with the winner dramatically increasing their odds of making the postseason and the loser essentially eliminated from contention.

Online sportsbooks are currently siding with KC as 3.5-point favorites in the latest SNF odds, but I’m more interested in betting the total for a handful of reasons.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Texans vs Chiefs pick and prediction, as well as the latest odds for SNF.

Texans vs Chiefs Pick and Prediction

These teams are no stranger to one another, having squared off six times in the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs have won the last five meetings, but this year’s KC looks a lot different from previous Mahomes-led squads.

KC has already suffered more losses this season than in any other during Mahomes’ reign, and they now sit outside the top-9 Super Bowl odds contenders.

The Chiefs may be favored to win this contest, but it’s going to be an absolute slog. KC is going to struggle mightily to move the football, as Houston brings the number one-ranked defense per DVOA to Arrowhead.

Houston Texans Defensive Stats

To make matters worse, the Chiefs are down three starting offensive linemen, which is a recipe for disaster against this Texans front. Houston ranks second in pass-rush win rate per PFF and top-8 in coverage and tackling. They allow the lowest EPA per pass in the NFL, and only the Broncos have allowed fewer passing touchdowns.

As for Mahomes, he’s having his best statistical season since 2022, but things break down when he’s under pressure. Mahomes’s completion percentage drops from 72.4% to 44.3% under duress, while his turnover-worthy play rate doubles.

In a perfect world, the Chiefs would lean run-heavy to alleviate some pressure on their offensive line, but Houston is stout against enemy rushers as well. They rank top-10 in both EPA/rush and rushing TD, surrendering just 4.0 yards per carry.

Points are going to be extremely tough to come by for Mahomes and co., but the same can be said for the Texans’ offense as well.

Houston enters play ranked 24th in success rate on offense, and 17th in EPA/play. CJ Stroud is middling in most advanced metrics as a passer, while the run game sits 22nd in EPA/rush. Say what you want about the KC defense, but when they’re at home, they come to play.

The Chiefs have faced the Eagles, Lions, Ravens, Colts, Raiders and Commanders at home, and have held them all under 21 points. Stroud has faced KC twice in his career, falling to put up 20 points in each outing.

Both offenses will be hard-pressed to sustain drives and score in this matchup, and the weather won’t help either. Sub-40-degree temperatures are on deck for Sunday Night Football, and Stroud is winless in his career when the temperature dips that low.

Not that you need more ammo to bet the under, but if you do, consider the trends. Houston and KC are the two most profitable teams to the under this season. 9 of 12 Texans games have fallen short of the total, as have 8 of 12 Chiefs contests. Unders in KC home games have been a serious cash cow throughout Mahomes’ career, hitting at a 60% clip since the start of the 2018 season.

The under at Arrowhead is 30-16 (65.2%) over the last three seasons, failing to clear the total by an average of 4.3 points per game.

HOU Texans vs KC Chiefs Odds

Before making any Sunday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. Most books are showing a 41.5-point total, but you can get a 42-point over/under if you wager at BetRivers.

In addition to laying 3.5 points, KC also comes in as a -198 moneyline favorite, which feels like a pretty safe leg if you’re building a parlay. The Chiefs coughed up 31 points in a loss last week, but are 8-0 straight up with Mahomes the week after their defense allows 30+ points.

Odds as of Dec. 6. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on SNF. Missouri bettors can bet on this game at DraftKings Missouri.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, the total opened at 43.5, but has been moving down all week. As of Saturday night, 70% of the total tickets and 66% of the handle are on over 41.5, so there’s a chance the over/under creeps back up slightly before kickoff.