Falcons vs Buccaneers Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites over the Falcons on Thursday Night Football
• Atlanta ranks 26th in EPA/play on offense this season
• See below for my Falcons vs Buccaneers picks and predictions, plus the closing odds for TNF

It’s not the sexiest matchup on the Week 15 calendar, but there’s still plenty at stake in tonight’s Thursday Night Football tilt between the Falcons (4-9, 2-5 away) and Buccaneers (7-6, 3-3 home).

Online sportsbooks are currently siding with Tampa Bay in the latest TNF odds, as the Bucs are the stronger, healthier team as the season winds down.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL, and on Amazon Prime. Here are my Falcons vs Buccaneers picks and predictions, as well as the closing odds.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Picks and Predictions

• Buccaneers -4.5 (-122 at BetRivers)

I’m taking Tampa Bay against the spread tonight, willing to lay 4.5 to 5.5 points with the Bucs depending on where you look. I’m certainly not in love with this Tampa Bay team, but a lot of things are in their favor ahead of this game.

Let’s start with the injury situation. Kirk Cousins remains the Atlanta starting quarterback, with Michael Pennix Jr. on IR. Cousins has averaged less than 6 yards per attempt in half of his starts so far this season, and is working with a depleted pass catching corps.

Star receiver Drake London is out, while former top-5 pick Kyle Pitts Jr. is a legit question mark. Pitts has had his two best games of the season with Cousins under center, and the cupboard is absolutely bare behind them.

Darnell Mooney and David Sills V aren’t scaring any defense, leaving Bijan Robinson coming out of the backfield as Cousins’ only explosive weapon.

That’s an issue against this Tampa Bay defense, who stop the run at an above average rate, but struggle in pass coverage.

Atlanta enters play ranked bottom-six in scoring and EPA/play this season, and are 1-3 both straight up and against the spread in Cousins’ starts. It’s not like the Falcons have been playing a bunch of Super Bowl odds contenders either, as only one of those teams currently occupies a playoff spot.

Atlanta Falcons Offense Stats

As for the Bucs, they’re getting healthy at just the right time. Tampa Bay has dropped four of its last five games, but is set to welcome back receivers Mike Evans and Jaylen McMillan, as well as star left tackle Triston Wirfs.

Those additions should help a struggling Baker Mayfield. An early season NFL MVP odds contender, Mayfield is last in EPA + completion percentage over expectation since Week 7, and ranks second worst in success rate. The Bucs have failed to cover in five straight, and have scored fewer than 24 points in all but one of those outings.

Evans, McMillan and Wirfs should immediately help out in the passing game, while the ladder can help set the tone in the run game. Atlanta ranks 26th in EPA/rush on defense, and Tampa Bay would be wise to spam them with Bucky Irving runs all night long.

Another reason to like the Bucs is that they still have plenty left to play for. Tampa Bay needs a win tonight to lock up the tiebreaker over Carolina in the NFC South race. The Bucs and Panthers enter tied for first in the division, and an NFC South crown is the only viable route to the playoffs for both teams.

Looking for more Falcons vs Buccaneers plays? Check out the following:

• Falcons vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
• Falcons vs Buccaneers player props
• Falcons vs Buccaneers expert predictions and picks

ATL vs TB Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the total or any other market. The best book to bet the Buccaneers against the spread is at BetRivers, as their -4.5 point line is a point lower than most commercial books.

As for the total, that number is painted at 43.5 across the industry, while BetMGM and Bet365 have the most favorable odds on Atlanta to pull off the upset at +225.

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Per the NFL public betting trends, betting on the Falcons outdoors, on the road has not been a winning strategy lately. Atlanta has lost seven straight outside, and are 11-21 outdoors since 2020.