Broncos vs Chiefs Picks, Prediction & Spread for Christmas

• The Denver Broncos are hefty 12.5-point favorites over the KC Chiefs on Christmas Day
• A Denver win secures the AFC West title
• See the Broncos vs Chiefs odds, picks and predictions below

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The dragon has already been slayed, but the Denver Broncos (12-3, 5-2 away) can still kick the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9, 5-3 home) while they are down.

A road win in Week 17 — on Christmas Day, no less — would likely give the Broncos the AFC West division crown, something the Chiefs have owned for the last nine seasons.

Online sportsbooks have the Broncos as hefty road favorites in the latest NFL odds, but there’s a few too many points between bitter division rivals to trust in a Denver blowout, leaving us to target the total.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Prime Video providing the broadcast coverage.

Below, you’ll find my Broncos vs Chiefs picks and predictions and the latest odds for this Christmas evening affair.

Broncos vs Chiefs Picks & Predictions

• Over 36.5 points (-108) at DraftKings

This is possibly one of the worst matchups you could conjure up for Christmas Day, if only because the Chiefs are spent in every which way (emotionally, physically, you name it) and they get a Broncos team that should be in a surly mood after getting drilled 34-20 by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Denver’s defense was torched, with the Jags converting four red zone trips into four TD’s, with virtually no resistance.

Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington for the TD!

JAXvsDEN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/cHFgVwot0m

— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025

This week, they’ll likely be getting journeyman Chris Oladokun at QB for the Chiefs, who, on top of losing Patrick Mahomes for the year, have also lost backup Gardner Minshew after he too suffered an ACL tear in the Chiefs 26-9 loss to the Titans.

At least Oladokun got some reps. He also got dropped four times, and will be facing a Broncos’ defense that leads the NFL with 63 sacks.

Chris Oladokun Week 17 Stats

It was also a rough afternoon for Denver’s offense, who, despite out-gaining the Jaguars 445 to 346, were not able to come up with the key plays at critical moments, thus putting an end to their 11-game win streak.

Bo Nix could not find the range on third down, converting on just 5-for-14, which led to just one score in the red zone. While he did throw for a career-high 352 yards, he was also intercepted twice.

KC presents a get-right game for the Broncos — weird, right? It’s a sentence that would have had people questioning my sanity if it reached print even a few weeks ago.

Cam Ward pirouettes and pitches to Okonkwo for a TD 🌀

KCvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/AQJeGjGH5n

— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025

One doesn’t need to go far to see how this would be possible. The 26 points put up by Tennessee in over the Chiefs last week was the Titans’ second-highest scoring output of the season.

Denver already has a win over KC, and that was with Mahomes in the lineup, a 22-19 slugfest in Week 11.

While the Chiefs’ offense is slumping during its current 4-game losing slide, failing to hit even 14 points over the last three games, this line feels low enough that Denver should do most of the heavy lifting to bring it to an Over, which would be a fifth straight game for them.

DEN Broncos vs KC Chiefs Odds

The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.

There’s literally zero value in betting Denver to win outright, as the best odds you can find for them is -800 at BetMGM. Conversely, no one in their right mind would bet the depleted and lifeless Chiefs to upset their division rival, so forget about those +675 moneyline odds.

Denver is a 12.5-point favorite at FanDuel, but if you want the points, be sure to head over to DraftKings, where you can get a whole extra point for the Chiefs to cover at 13.5.

As mentioned, that total is absurdly low, and you’ll find 36.5 points almost across the board.

Before making any Monday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best NFL betting apps. Bet365 is currently offering a 46.5-point total, while most other commercial books have moved the over/under down to 46.

Checking the NFL public betting percentages, and the Under is getting hammered right now, with 70% of the bets and 68% of the money going Under 36.5 points. Denver as a 13-point favorite is getting 73% of the money on 63% of the bets.