Naoya Inoue vs. David Picasso Prediction, Prop Bets and Betting Odds (Dec. 27)

• Naoya Inoue towers around -4000 (most sites) over +1400 underdog David Picasso in Saturday’s undisputed super bantamweight title fight.
• Inoue opened at -4000 and has remained steady, with plus-money available on a knockout victory.
• See my Naoya Inoue vs David Picasso prediction, prop bets and betting odds for Saturday night.

The Inoue vs Picasso betting market has stayed mostly stable for several weeks, but value is always out there. Naoya Inoue has remained around a -4000 to -5000 moneyline favorite over David Picasso. However, the exact method of win features some juice. I found the number for a knockout is surprisingly now in plus territory for the Super Bantamweight champion.

Inoue does not want to get caught looking too far ahead. The trend toward Inoue has slowed ahead of Saturday’s undisputed super bantamweight title fight at the Mohammed Abdo Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This December 27 fight is part of the “Night Of The Samurai” event.

Naoya Inoue vs David Picasso Prediction

• Best Prediction: Naoya Inoue by Knockout (+120 via DraftKings)

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Keep in mind that this only wins if the ref does not stop the fight. A TKO is now -160 currently. Inoue has 27 total knockouts, including four knockouts in his previous eight fights. That goes with three TKOs and then his last fight, which was an easy unanimous decision.

The problem with the Japanese Super Bantamweight Champion was that he almost looked bored in his last fight. His first three rounds, according to CompuBox, showed extremely low outputs by Inoue’s standards. Was he just toying with his prey, or was it something more? Are there some cracks in the armor?

Inoue cruised in his last fight but did not get the KO, and was knocked down by Ramon Cardenas two fights ago. Inoue bounced back then, but it does make one wonder a little.

I do believe that Inoue will desire heavily to make a statement here. Junto Nakatani has moved up to Super Bantamweight (122 lbs) and is ready to ultimately take on Inoue sometime in 2026, provided they both win on Saturday.

Naoya Inoue vs David Picasso Prop Bets

• Prop Bet 1: Inoue KO Rounds 7-9 at +250
• Prop Bet 2: Picasso to Get Knocked Down Rounds 1-3 at +220

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Naturally, it’s time to have a little fun with the Inoue vs Picasso prop bets for this bout. Both fighters are undefeated, so barring something unforeseen, someone is going to leave Riyadh with their first loss.

One tip that is important: If you believe Naoya Inoue will be knocked down, do not bet Inoue to be knocked down (+850) but instead try both fighters to be knocked down at +1200.

Some other tips with the prop bets here: Waking up early is key. The expected start time of this main event is just before 8:00 a.m. ET. Get up an hour or two early and look for maybe that last-minute surprise in the props. It almost never fails.

As for some of the other potential wagers, do check out group round prop betting. How early does Inoue end the fight? The Over/Under is 6.5 rounds (-115 for the Over and the Under).

Picasso possesses some speed, but I believe Inoue can close the ring with his body shots and ultimately take the starch out of the undefeated Mexican. One wrinkle simply lies in the faith that Inoue scores an early knockdown as he tries to open up with a few power shots. It’s something he did not do in his previous fight.

Inoue vs Picasso Betting Odds

The Inoue vs Picasso betting odds vary depending on several books, so always check for unexpected value. Inoue is currently listed as a -4000 to -5000 moneyline favorite, with Picasso as much as a +1400 underdog.

Saturday night in Riyadh expects to feature a good deal of fun as the expectation is we get that much closer to a mega bout at 122 pounds, which will leave people talking in 2026.

Betting Props and Odds as of December 27, 2025, at DraftKings. Check out the boxing betting apps for Inoue vs Picasso.