Week 17 NFL Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

• Compare computer and expert predictions for Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season
• Find computer score projections for each game
• Check out the best NFL picks and upset predictions below

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Week 17 delivered five games through Saturday night, with ten more kicking off Sunday. Division titles, wild card spots, and seeding advantages are all on the line.

The computer model went 3-2 on completed games. For Sunday’s slate, I’m backing one upset pick where the underdog has all the trends working in their favor, plus a couple road favorites that should roll despite tight spreads.

I’ve broken down all 16 games with my best bets, upset predictions, and the injury and weather info that could swing your wagers. The model and I disagree on several key matchups, creating opportunities in the NFL betting odds.

Week 17 NFL Predictions: Expert & Computer Picks

The computer projects three games decided by two points or less: Texans-Chargers (15-13), Buccaneers-Dolphins (22-21), and Cardinals-Bengals (28-27). The biggest projected blowout is New England rolling the Jets 33-10.

These are straight-up picks. For spread plays, use the computer’s score projections to find value against the odds. I’ve bolded the games where the model and I disagree.

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Week 17 Upset Alert

The computer loves three underdogs this Sunday: Texans over Chargers, Cardinals over Bengals, and Giants over Raiders. I’m fading all three.

My upset pick goes the opposite direction. The Eagles are catching points in Buffalo at +105 on the moneyline, and Philadelphia has all the ingredients to steal one on the road. The Bills can’t stop the run and struggle to cover as home favorites. That’s a recipe for an upset.

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NFL Week 17 Best Bets

The model and I split on several key matchups this week. Here are the three plays where I’m putting my money:

1. Colts +6 (-115)
2. Titans +3 (-120)
3. Eagles ML +105

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Best Bet: Colts +6 (-115) vs Jaguars

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • December 28, 2025 at 6:32am

Pick

Odds

HomePointSpread +6

Spread

NFL • Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

-115 on Fanatics

SCHEDULED • 12/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1766903568968-481c-930

The Jaguars are 5.5-point favorites in Indianapolis, but I’m buying the half-point up to +6. Six is a critical number in NFL betting because it represents a touchdown without the two-point conversion. Jacksonville wins by exactly six? You push at +6 but lose at +5.5. That’s worth the extra juice, especially at Fanatics where you’re only paying -115.

Jacksonville beat the Colts 36-19 three weeks ago, and they’re riding a six-game win streak. But the Jaguars already clinched the AFC South and locked up a playoff spot. It’s easy to overlook a division rival you’ve beaten eight straight times when there’s nothing left to play for.

Indianapolis is getting Sauce Gardner back after he missed three games. The Colts went 0-3 without him while allowing 34 points per game. Gardner is a two-time First-Team All-Pro who completely transforms this secondary.

Colts CB Sauce Gardner (calf) is set to make his return Sunday vs. Jaguars, per @RapSheet https://t.co/9maFOIPzfq pic.twitter.com/ecGTbToF4F

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 28, 2025

Philip Rivers showed he can still move the ball against San Francisco. He went 23-of-35 for 277 yards and two touchdowns before a late pick-six sealed the loss. Against Jacksonville’s 16th-ranked scoring defense, Rivers should be able to put up enough points to keep this competitive.

The total sits at 48.5, which signals a scoring game. If both teams are putting up points, the Colts stay within striking distance. A 28-24 Jacksonville win covers +6. Even 27-21 gets there. The Jaguars typically score 25-31 points per game. They’re efficient but not explosive enough to blow out a desperate Colts team at home.

• Best Bet: Colts +6 (-115)

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Upset Predictions for NFL Week 17

My top upset prediction for Week 17:

• Eagles over Bills (+105)

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Upset Pick: Eagles ML +105 @ Bills

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • December 28, 2025 at 7:03am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills

105 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 12/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1766905396616-481c-154

The Bills opened as 2.5-point favorites, and sharp money has already moved the line to -1.5 at some books. That line movement tells you everything you need to know. Philadelphia is 5-0 straight up as underdogs since the start of last season, while Buffalo is just 1-7 ATS as favorites after a win and 5-8 ATS overall when favored this year.

Saquon Barkley is hitting his peak at exactly the right time. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry over his last four games with 332 yards and three touchdowns. The Eagles as a team have averaged 174.7 rushing yards per game in December, ranking third in the league.

Saquon Barkley in his last 3 games:

– 332 yards
– 3 touchdowns
– 5.3 yards per carry

He’s back. pic.twitter.com/oIFesnUmAq

— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) December 21, 2025

Buffalo’s run defense is a disaster. They rank 29th in the NFL, allowing 144.3 yards per game on the ground at 5.4 yards per carry. That’s second-worst in the league. They’ve surrendered 24 rushing touchdowns this season (most in football) and gave up 160 yards to Cleveland’s backup running backs last week.

On the flip side, Philadelphia’s defense has been elite lately. They rank first over the last 10 weeks and have held opponents to 17 points or fewer in eight games, which is the most in the NFL. The Eagles are 21-5-2 ATS when holding teams under 20 points since last season.

Josh Allen dealt with foot soreness last week, and Buffalo’s offense managed just 62 yards and three points in the entire second half against Cleveland. The weather forecast in Buffalo calls for rain and mid-40s temperatures, which is perfect conditions for Philly’s ground-and-pound attack.

• Upset Pick: Eagles ML +105

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Spread Upset Pick: Titans +3 (-120) vs Saints

The line sits at +2.5, and I’m buying the half-point up to +3. Field goals decide more NFL games than any other margin, so protecting against a three-point Saints win is absolutely worth the extra juice at -120.

New Orleans is riding a three-game win streak, but let’s look at who they beat: the Giants, Buccaneers, and Jets. Not exactly murderer’s row. The Saints are 3-7 on the road this season and have covered just three of their last 10 road spreads.

Tennessee thrives in close home games. They’re 7-9 ATS in fourth-quarter situations at home, which is good for plus-5.05 units and a 49% ROI. My model has the Titans covering the 2.5-point spread in 51% of scenarios and winning outright 46% of the time. When you’re getting plus-money on a team that wins nearly half the time, that’s value.

Finish the right way pic.twitter.com/TxrQ3XvZZY

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 27, 2025

Alvin Kamara remains out for the fifth straight week. The Saints managed only 84 yards rushing against the Jets’ sixth-ranked run defense last week. Tennessee ranks 18th against the run, but without Kamara establishing the ground game, this New Orleans offense becomes one-dimensional.

The total sits at 39.5, which is the second-lowest of Week 17. The Titans rank 30th in scoring at 16.7 points per game, while the Saints average just 14.7 points per game on the road. My projections have this game finishing Saints 22, Titans 21. If New Orleans wins by exactly a field goal, you push at +3 but lose at +2.5. That half-point is the difference.

• Pick: Titans +3 (-120)

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Week 17 NFL Injury Report

Here are the key injury concerns heading into Week 17.

Jaguars @ Colts

• Jacksonville: No major injuries.
• Indianapolis: DT DeForest Buckner (neck) OUT – placed on IR. QB Anthony Richardson (eye) OUT. CB Sauce Gardner (calf) QUESTIONABLE.

DeForest Buckner was placed on injured reserve, ending his season. That’s a massive blow to Indy’s run defense. Sauce Gardner was a full participant Friday and looks good to return after missing three games. Anthony Richardson remains out with an eye injury, so Philip Rivers continues at quarterback.

Saints @ Titans

• New Orleans: RB Alvin Kamara (knee) DNP. WR Chris Olave (back) LIMITED.
• Tennessee: No major injuries.

Kamara hasn’t practiced since Week 12, making this his fifth straight week out. Chris Olave is dealing with a back injury but was limited in practice, so he should play.

Eagles @ Bills

• Philadelphia: OT Lane Johnson (foot) OUT. LB Nakobe Dean (hamstring) OUT. WR A.J. Brown (teeth) good to go.
• Buffalo: QB Josh Allen (foot) FULL. TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) LIMITED.

Lane Johnson being out is a blow to Philadelphia’s offensive line, but they’ve got depth there. Josh Allen practiced fully Friday despite dealing with foot soreness. Big news for Philly: Jalen Carter returns from a three-game absence to strengthen the defensive line.

Steelers @ Browns

• Pittsburgh: LB T.J. Watt (lung) OUT. G Isaac Seumalo (triceps) OUT. CB Jalen Ramsey (illness) cleared.
• Cleveland: TE David Njoku (knee) OUT. CB Denzel Ward (calf) FULL.

T.J. Watt is officially out for Sunday but expected to be ready for Pittsburgh’s next meaningful game. That’s a massive loss for the Steelers pass rush against Cleveland. Jalen Ramsey cleared the illness and will play. Isaac Seumalo also out, weakening the offensive line.

Rams @ Falcons

• Los Angeles: WR Davante Adams (hamstring) DOUBTFUL for Monday night.
• Atlanta: WR Drake London (knee) LIMITED. TE Kyle Pitts Sr. (knee) LIMITED.

Davante Adams is listed as doubtful for Monday night after missing last week’s game with a hamstring injury. If he can’t go, expect that 8-point spread to compress significantly. Drake London and Kyle Pitts both limited but should play.

Cardinals @ Bengals

• Arizona: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) LIMITED.
• Cincinnati: No major injuries.

Marvin Harrison Jr. practiced limited with a heel injury. He’s been dealing with this for a couple weeks but has played through it. Expect him to suit up.

Giants @ Raiders

• New York: OT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) OUT – placed on IR. C John Michael Schmitz (finger) OUT – placed on IR. TE Theo Johnson (illness) OUT.
• Las Vegas: DE Maxx Crosby (knee) OUT – placed on IR. TE Brock Bowers OUT – placed on IR.

The Giants placed Andrew Thomas on IR, ending his season. That’s brutal for an offensive line that’s already struggling. The Raiders shut down Maxx Crosby for the season, placing him on IR for a meniscus trim this offseason. Brock Bowers also on IR, ending what was a monster rookie campaign.

Bears @ 49ers

• Chicago: WR Rome Odunze (foot) OUT.
• San Francisco: TE George Kittle (ankle) DNP – status unclear. RB Christian McCaffrey (rest) good to go.

George Kittle’s ankle injury kept him DNP all week. If he can’t go, expect the 49ers spread to compress from -3.5 toward a pick’em. Kittle’s that important to their offense. Rome Odunze is out, weakening Chicago’s already thin receiving corps.

Dolphins @ Buccaneers

• Miami: K Jason Sanders (hip) OUT. WR Jaylen Waddle (wrist) good to go. TE Darren Waller (rest) good to go.
• Tampa Bay: No major injuries.

Jason Sanders was downgraded to out with a hip injury. That’s notable for a Miami team that may need field goals in a tight divisional game. Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller both cleared to play. Tampa Bay has their cleanest injury report in weeks.

Patriots @ Jets

• New England: RB TreVeyon Henderson cleared concussion protocol. WR DeMario Douglas (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE. WR Kayshon Boutte (concussion) OUT. WR Mack Hollins (abdomen) OUT.
• New York: No major injuries.

TreVeyon Henderson cleared the concussion protocol ahead of Sunday’s game, which is huge for the Patriots backfield. The receiving corps is decimated with Boutte and Hollins both out, plus DeMario Douglas questionable. Drake Maye’s options are extremely limited.

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Weather Impacting Week 17 NFL Games

Eagles @ Bills

Expect rain and temperatures in the mid-40s at Highmark Stadium. There’s a chance of wintry mix with precipitation likely during the game. Winds will be 10-15 MPH.

Sloppy conditions favor the ground game, which is exactly what Philadelphia wants. With Saquon Barkley rolling, the Eagles should lean heavily on the run if the field gets messy.

Steelers @ Browns

Lake Erie winds and bitter cold at Huntington Bank Field. Temperatures will range from 26 to 33 degrees with sustained winds of 20-25 MPH.

These winds make this a field position battle. Both offenses will struggle moving the ball through the air, which is why the total sits at just 34.5.

Patriots @ Jets

Cold and windy conditions at MetLife Stadium. Temperatures will range from 29 to 38 degrees with 15-20 MPH winds.

The swirling winds at MetLife create chaos for quarterbacks and kickers alike. The total is set at 42.5, but the Under could be in play if the wind picks up.

Buccaneers @ Dolphins

Perfect conditions at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Mostly sunny with temperatures from 68 to 75 degrees and just a 10% chance of precipitation.

No weather concerns for this one. Both offenses should operate at full capacity in ideal South Florida conditions.