Early Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & Predictions for Week 18

• Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore in Week 18. The winner claims the AFC North. The loser doesn’t make the playoffs.
• Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in Week 14.
• Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points.

There’s no love lost and no better way to settle the feud: The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens in a winner-take-all battle Sunday night. Kickoff is set for 8:20 pm, ET, NBC.

Lamar Jackson vs. Aaron Rodgers. The winner wins the AFC North. The loser is eliminated from the playoffs.

Both teams enter at full strength with no significant injuries. This comprehensive betting breakdown will dissect the key statistical mismatches, examine public money movement, and deliver our final predictions to find the sharpest angles in this AFC North title fight.

Ravens vs Steelers Picks and Best Bets

This AFC North championship clash presents a fascinating stylistic contrast that creates compelling betting opportunities. With the spread tightening and the total dropping, we’re backing the home underdog to control the narrative in this defensive slugfest.

Primary Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook

(Odds on Monday afternoon, Dec. 29, 2025)

The foundation of our Pittsburgh play rests on its familiarity with Baltimore’s play-makers and its pass rush advantage over Baltimore’s offensive line. The Steelers contained Lamar Jackson in the Week 14 win in Baltimore, and slowed Derrick Henry just enough to win 27-22 despite rushing for just 34 yards. One huge caveat: DK Metcalf went off against the Ravens (7 catches for 148 yards), but he won’t be available as he’s serving the second of his two-game suspension.

The red zone battle heavily favors Pittsburgh’s efficiency over Baltimore’s volume. While the Ravens move the ball effectively between the 20-yard lines, they convert just 47.5% of red zone opportunities into touchdowns. The Steelers, however, score touchdowns on a 59.6% of their red zone attempts. In a projected low-scoring affair, settling for field goals creates an insurmountable handicap.

Secondary Pick: Total Points: Under 41.5 (-115)

The betting market has already recognized this game’s defensive nature, dropping the total from 43.5 points to 41.5. Baltimore’s ground-and-pound identity, featuring Henry, naturally limits possessions and keeps the clock moving. Pittsburgh kept Henry out of the end zone in the first game.

Weather conditions at Acrisure Stadium favor a low-scoring affair, with temperatures well below freezing and potential wind gusts affecting the passing game. Both teams rank in the bottom half of third-down conversion percentage, suggesting extended drives will be rare.

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Public Betting Splits Analysis

The NFL betting public has shown overwhelming confidence in the road favorites, creating a clear contrarian opportunity for sharp money backing the home underdog. This lopsided action reflects casual bettors’ recent-bias toward Baltimore’s explosive win over Green Bay while overlooking Pittsburgh’s historical success in prime-time divisional games.

Current money distribution breakdown:

• Moneyline: 90.19% backing Baltimore Ravens to win outright
• Spread: 62.2% supporting Baltimore Ravens -3.5
• Total: 50.19% on Under 41.5

The moneyline represents the most extreme public consensus, with nine out of every ten dollars wagered on Baltimore to win straight up. This confidence extends to the spread, though with less intensity, as recreational bettors remember Henry’s dominant performance against Green Bay. However, the total presents an interesting split where ticket count favors the Over, but actual money leans slightly toward the Under (50.19%), suggesting larger, potentially sharper wagers expect a defensive battle.

Our Steelers +3.5 pick directly contradicts the public narrative, positioning us alongside the minority of bettors who recognize Pittsburgh’s value as a playoff-experienced home underdog. Similarly, our Under 41.5 selection aligns with the bigger-money action that anticipates a low-scoring AFC North slugfest.

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

(Odds as of December 28, 2025, from consensus sportsbooks.)

The betting market has established Baltimore as road favorites. Pittsburgh’s +150 underdog odds provide solid value for a team historically successful in prime-time home games. While a 41.5-point total exists as a player prop, an overall game total suggesting a defensive battle is unconfirmed, as is the Under carrying slight juice at -115.

Based on the current moneyline, the normalized implied probabilities give Baltimore an unconfirmed chance to win outright, while Pittsburgh holds a 38.4% probability of victory. These vig-free calculations suggest the market may be overvaluing Baltimore’s recent dominance while underestimating Pittsburgh’s playoff experience and home-field advantage.

Statistical Breakdown: Who Has the Edge?

This AFC North title game features a classic clash between Baltimore’s productive offense and Pittsburgh’s opportunistic defense. The season-long statistics reveal key mismatches that could determine which team advances to the playoffs and which begins an early offseason.