Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks, Predictions & Splits (Jun 18)

• The Boston Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Blue Jays to avoid a home sweep Thursday
• Toronto is trying to win a series after dropping three of its previous four sets
• Read below for the my Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks, predictions, updated odds and betting splits

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The Toronto Blue Jays are looking for a sweep Thursday on the road against their AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox.

The books aren’t buying that, setting the Red Sox as home favorites in the MLB odds, despite Boston having lost seven of its previous nine.

First pitch goes this afternoon at 1:35pm ET from Fenway Park in Boston, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

TOR Blue Jays vs BOS Red Sox Picks

Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132 at Caesars)
If anyone is going to generate offense for the Red Sox, it is Contreras. He sports a .294 batting average, a .551 slugging percentage, and a .940 OPS. With 16 home runs and 43 RBIs to his name, getting plus-money on him to record at least two total bases is a fantastic value play.

Trey Yesavage Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-149 at Caesars)
Yesavage features solid swing-and-miss stuff, averaging 8.87 strikeouts per nine innings. Given that the Red Sox lineup has struck out 587 times in 2,390 overall at-bats, Yesavage should have plenty of opportunities to rack up five punchouts.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction

• Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-125 at bet365)

The Blue Jays took the previous game, but I expect the Red Sox to bounce back and secure a win outright.

The Red Sox hold a distinct advantage the MLB probable pitchers matchup.

Sonny Gray has been an absolute standout for the Red Sox this season. He relies on soft contact and precision, evidenced by his solid 1.20 WHIP and a consistently strong 3.75 xFIP. Gray has a 3.03 ERA over 62.1 innings.

While he does not overwhelm batters with velocity, his 7.36 K/9 is more than enough to navigate trouble.

When Gray exits, he hands the ball to a Red Sox bullpen boasting a collective 3.14 ERA.

Conversely, Trey Yesavage brings electric stuff to the mound. The right-hander has posted an excellent 3.58 FIP over his first nine starts, powered largely by his impressive ability to generate swings and misses.

However, his underlying 4.62 xFIP suggests he might be benefiting from favorable luck on fly balls.

He’s been solid with a 3.78 ERA, but the Blue Jays’ bullpen is slightly more vulnerable with a 3.83 ERA.

When breaking down the offensive profiles, the numbers paint a picture of two teams relying heavily on their arms to make up for sluggish bats.

The Red Sox rank dead last in Major League Baseball in home runs per game (0.72) and runs scored per game (3.42) at home this season.

The Blue Jays have not fared much better on the road, struggling to consistently drive the ball and ranking near the bottom of the league in away runs per game (3.80).

With both offenses sputtering, the mismatch clearly tilts in favor of the starting pitching and bullpens, and the Red Sox pitching edge at home makes them the more reliable play.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Blue Jays vs Red Sox or any other MLB game.

The betting markets currently price the Red Sox as slight -116 home favorites on the moneyline (FanDuel) against the Blue Jays, while Toronto is getting +105 odds at bet365 to win outright.

Toronto and Boston are both getting 1.5 runs on the spread, but that comes with some -210 juice for the Jays, and -192 odds for the Red Sox — making both avoidable.

The total checks in at 8.5 runs.

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and the public is leaning ever-so-slightly to the visitors. Toronto is getting 51% of the bets and 58% of the money on the moneyline, while getting 37% of the bets but 52% of the money on the spread.

The total is far more lopsided, with the public putting 80% of the bets on Over 8.5 runs, and 77% of the money as well.