USC vs TCU Player Props: Best Bets & Picks for Alamo Bowl

• USC faces TCU in the Alamo Bowl on Tuesday night at the Alamodome in San Antonio
• Jayden Maiava has thrown 23 touchdowns in 12 games this season for the Trojans
• Keep reading for the best USC vs TCU player props and predictions for Tuesday’s Alamo Bowl

The Alamo Bowl kicks off Tuesday night when USC faces TCU at the Alamodome. Both teams enter shorthanded after losing key players to the transfer portal and NFL Draft, but the player props market still offers value with the remaining talent.

USC lost defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to Penn State and playmaker Makai Lemon to the NFL Draft. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover hit the transfer portal, putting senior Ken Seals into the starting role. The Horned Frogs also lost offensive coordinator Kendal Briles to South Carolina.

I’ve found three USC vs TCU player props that account for the opt-outs and target the weapons who are actually playing. The props lines have moved significantly based on who’s in and who’s out. Below, I break down my best USC vs TCU player props for Tuesday night.

Kickoff is set for 9:00 PM EST on Tuesday, December 30 from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. ESPN has the broadcast.

USC vs TCU Player Props

Maiava’s 256.5-yard passing line sits well above Seals’ 224.5 number. The Trojans quarterback has heavy juice at -152 on his 1.5 passing touchdown prop after sharp money pushed it from an opening -136. That movement shows where the big money has landed.

King Miller leads at 82.5 rushing yards after his line jumped from 78.5. TCU’s Eric McAlister sits at 76.5 receiving yards with his 5.5 reception line juiced to -138 after flipping from +120. The opt-outs created a target vacuum that McAlister fills.

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USC vs TCU Prop #1: Eric McAlister Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

My top USC vs TCU prop targets TCU’s number one receiver. McAlister averages 93.4 yards per game on the season with 1,121 yards, 64 receptions and 10 touchdowns in 12 games. He’s been on fire down the stretch.

Eric McAlister Recent Game Log

McAlister cleared 76.5 yards in four of his last five games. TCU ranks seventh nationally in passing at 292.8 yards per game with 29 passing touchdowns. That aerial attack doesn’t change just because Seals is under center instead of Hoover.

There are reasons the QB change actually helps this prop. TCU’s receiver depth chart is decimated. Jordan Dwyer is out. Jordyn Bailey is doubtful. Ed Small, Jacobe Hayes and Dozie Ezukanma are all questionable. McAlister is the only proven, healthy pass-catcher TCU has left.

When a backup quarterback plays, they lean hard on the guy they trust most. McAlister at 6’3″ with elite route-running is the security blanket. Seals isn’t some walk-on. He was a multi-year starter at Vanderbilt who threw for over 4,000 yards in the SEC before transferring to TCU.

USC’s pass defense ranks 44th nationally, allowing 203.3 yards per game and 21 passing touchdowns. The Trojans gave up 42 points in their most recent game. TCU enters as 5.5-point underdogs, which means they’ll be passing to catch up in the second half.

The line jumped from 70.5 to 76.5, and the reception over flipped from +120 to -137. That’s sharp money recognizing the target concentration coming McAlister’s way.

• Pick: Eric McAlister Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

USC vs TCU Prop #2: Jayden Maiava Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-152)

I’m backing the USC quarterback despite the heavy juice. Maiava has thrown 23 passing touchdowns across 12 games this season, averaging 1.92 touchdowns per game. He’s cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns in the majority of his starts.

Jayden Maiava Recent Game Log

Maiava hit two-plus passing touchdowns in three of his last five games. The Iowa and Nebraska games were weather-related outliers. In his last outing against UCLA, he completed 21 of 29 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns.

USC’s red zone efficiency is elite. The Trojans convert 91.2% of their red zone trips into scores, with a 70.2% touchdown rate. That’s 40 touchdowns on 57 red zone drives. When USC gets inside the 20, they score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals.

TCU’s defense is vulnerable. The Horned Frogs allow a 79.6% red zone scoring rate and own a -2 turnover differential on the season. They’ve committed 19 turnovers, averaging 1.58 giveaways per game. Those extra possessions give Maiava short fields and more chances to score.

The market jumped from -136 to -152 on this prop. Yes, USC lost Makai Lemon to the NFL Draft, but they still have weapons. The Alamodome’s controlled environment eliminates weather that could hurt passing.

• Pick: Jayden Maiava Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-152 at FanDuel)

USC vs TCU Touchdown Props

King Miller leads the anytime touchdown board at -140 as USC’s primary goal-line back. TCU’s Jeremy Payne and USC’s Tanook Hines both sit at favorable odds.

Miller’s odds have lengthened from -185 to the current -140. The public initially overreacted to the running back opt-outs, but sharps recognized that losing Dalton and Jackson actually gives Miller more red zone touches.

USC vs TCU Prop #3: King Miller Anytime TD Scorer (-140)

My final USC vs TCU prop backs the Trojans’ workhorse back. Miller has carried 131 times for 873 yards and seven touchdowns this season, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. He’s scored in seven of 11 games, a 63.6% touchdown rate.

King Miller Recent Game Log

Miller is coming off a two-touchdown performance against UCLA where he carried 23 times for 124 yards. He’s found the end zone against quality defenses, including Michigan (158 yards, 1 TD), Nebraska (129 yards, 1 TD) and Northwestern (127 yards, 1 TD).

The opt-outs should help Miller here. USC lost running backs Harry Dalton III and Bryan Jackson to the transfer portal. Walker Lyons at tight end also left. That puts more touches on Miller, who’s the clear RB1 with Eli Sanders out and Waymond Jordan questionable.

USC’s 91.2% red zone scoring rate is the number that matters. The Trojans get inside the 20 frequently and score touchdowns 70.2% of the time. Miller is the go-to back for an offense that averages 35.8 points per game.

TCU allows a 79.6% red zone scoring rate. When USC gets close, Miller punches it in. At -140, you’re paying a premium, but the volume and touchdown rate back up the price.

• Pick: King Miller Anytime Touchdown (-140 at FanDuel)