Odds Myles Garrett Breaks NFL Sack Record

• Myles Garrett is a -250 favorite to break the NFL’s single season sack record on Sunday
• Garrett is one sack shy of the all-time mark held by T.J. Watt
• See the latest odds on Myles Garrett to break the record, plus my analysis on if he’s a good bet to accomplish the feat

History is on the line on Sunday in another wise meaningless Browns vs Bengals game. All-Pro pass rusher Myles Garrett is half a sack shy from tying the single season record of 22.5, and a full sack short of setting a new all-time mark.

Online sportsbooks expect him to accomplish the feat, making him a heavy favorite to do so in the NFL player props market. You could argue his odds aren’t short enough given some the action in the predictive markets, and his track record of taking down Cincy QB Joe Burrow.

Myles Garrett Odds to Record a Sack

Bet365 currently lists Garrett as a -250 favorite to record a sack on Sunday. Predictive market Kalshi gives Garrett a 76% chance to break the record, which equates to a -317 favorite in traditional sports-betting terms.

The +185 odds on him falling short are enticing, especially considering he’s gone back-to-back games without a sack. However, the Cleveland defense is in a very favorable position versus the Bengals offensive line, and there’s a chance we see Burrow take it easy on Garrett, going down without much fight if Cincy is ahead.

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Garrett’s Track Record vs Burrow

Let’s start with Garrett’s dominance over Burrow. They’ve met nine times with Garrett recording 12 sacks, the most he’s accrued against any QB. Garrett also has 15 career sacks versus Cincinnati, the most he’s recorded against any team.

He got to Burrow twice in their Week 1 matchup, and is responsible for 40% of the sacks Burrow has absorbed all-time against the Browns.

Myles Garrett Sack Totals By Opponent

Garrett’s racked up 124 career sacks in 132 games, with his 100th sack coming last year also against Burrow. He had a chance to break the mark versus the Steelers last week, but Pittsburgh devised a game plan seemingly based entirely on keeping Garrett out of the record books.

That strategy cost the Steelers the game, and perhaps a shot at the postseason. It was all in an effort to keep the record in the hands of their current defensive star T.J. Watt, but the Bengals won’t be concerned with such nonsense.

According to Burrow, they’re going to run their offense just like they’ve been doing since he returned, which has produced incredible success. There’s going to be no laying down, like Brett Favre years ago versus Michael Strahan, but Burrow did admit sometimes taking a sack is a better decision than making a risky throw.

Cincy has scored 32+ points in four of their past five games, but if there’s a weakness to exploit its along the offensive line.

Matchup With Bengals Favors a Garrett Sack

The Bengals are ranked 26th in pass block win rate per PFF. Garrett is tied with Micah Parsons for PFF’s top graded pass rusher among qualified candidates, recording a 24.1% pass rush win rate. He’s accumulated 75 total pressures, for an average of 4.68 per game, and has converted 32% of those pressures into sacks.

Cincy has surrendered eight sacks in their last three games alone, including three last week to Arizona, the league’s 29th graded pass rush.

Garrett is a massive favorite in the NFL defensive player of the year odds, and will win the award for the second time in three years regardless of whether he breaks the record or not.

He’ll have plenty of opportunities given the Bengals propensity to throw (6th in pass rate over expectation), and I’m betting he cashes in.

If you’re looking to follow suit, act now. As we get closer to kickoff on Sunday, more people will be looking to be a part of history. They’ll see the predictive markets are higher on Garrett than sportsbooks and will flood the player props market with Garrett money. That will shorten the odds on a Garrett sack, drying up all the value that may currently exist.