The Best NFL Parlay for Saturday’s Wild Card Games
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- I’ve put together a +2374 parlay for Saturday’s NFL Wild Card slate
- The Panthers rank 26th in EPA / play, and 27th in total offense and points per game
- See my best NFL parlay picks for Saturday Wild Card games, below
There’s a reason why parlay betting is so popular. It’s the same reason lottery tickets exist. People love the idea of turning a small wager into a big pay day. That’s especially true in NFL betting, and I’m here to help. I’ve built a well thought out, four leg parlay for you to tail, featuring my favorite bets on Saturday’s Wild Card slate.
Below you’ll find my best NFL parlay for Saturday’s Wild Card games, plus the analysis behind each selection.
Best NFL Parlay for Saturday’s Wild Card Games
My favorite longshot NFL parlay for Saturday’s Wild Card games comes with +2374 odds if you play it at bet365, which had (by far) the best odds at the time of writing.
NFL Parlay Pick #1: Carolina Panthers Under 16.5 Points
- Carolina Panthers Under 16.5 Points (+100)
Whenever you’re putting together any kind of NFL bet slip, make sure to use the best football betting apps to find the most favorable price. The first leg of the parlay is under 16.5 points for the Panthers, who are the largest home underdog in NFL playoff history versus the Rams.
LA, a top-two Super Bowl odds contender, will be looking to avenge a Week 12 loss to Carolina, and will do so on the strength of their defense. The Rams rank top-10 in defensive EPA/play, and grade out top-three per PFF in run defense, coverage and pass rush productivity.
LA Rams Defense
That spells trouble for a Panthers offense that is stuck in the mud. Carolina scored just 14 and 10 points in their last two games respectively, and rank 26th or worse in EPA / play, total offense and points per game. They’ve no showed offensively in almost every big game this season, scoring 16 or fewer points in six of the seven games they played versus playoff competition.
The lone exception was the game versus the Rams, but don’t expect that to happen again. Carolina got a pick-six and multiple long 4th down touchdown passes in that contest, outcomes that will not repeat themselves.
NFL Parlay Pick #2: Matthew Stafford 3+ TD Passes
- Matthew Stafford 3+ TD Passes (+160)
The Rams lead the NFL this season in total offense, points per game and success rate. LA is projected for 4+ touchdowns on Saturday, and I expect most of that production to come from Matthew Stafford’s arm.
The NFL MVP odds finalist leads the NFL in touchdown passes this season with 46, and he’s a good bet to toss at least three versus the Panthers. Stafford has hit that mark in nine of his last 15 starts, and accomplished the feat three times since December 1st without his top red zone target Davante Adams.
Adams will be back this week, and the Rams receivers should feast against a Carolina secondary that ranks 24th in EPA per pass, and that’s yielded the 10th highest completion percentage in the NFL.
NFL Parlay Pick #3: GB Packers vs CHI Bears First Half Under 17.5 Points
- Packers vs Bears First Half Under 17.5 (+167)
My next two picks are based on trends and recent head-to-head history. I’m betting under 17.5 first half points in the Packers vs Bears contest, and then over 22.5 points in the second half.
Let’s start with the first half under. Both teams tend to play ultra conservatively in the opening 30 minutes, leading to identical 6-11 records to the under so far.
Green Bay and Chicago met twice during the regular season, with the matchups producing 17 and 6 points respectively in the first half. Interestingly, both games were scoreless after the first quarter, while Bears outings have produced 17 first half points or less in five of the past six weeks. The lone exception was against San Francisco, who own the worst defensive success rate in the league.
NFL Parlay Pick #4: GB Packers vs CHI Bears Second Half Over 21.5 Points
- Packers vs Bears Second Half Over 21.5 (-110)
As conservative as Green Bay and Chicago have been offensively in the opening half, they’ve flipped the switch over the last 30 minutes. The Packers and Bears have been two of the highest scoring second half teams, each posting 12-5 marks to the over in their games so far.
For Green Bay, it’s about taking the training wheels off Jordan Love. Matt LaFleur insists on babying him early, but once the game is in the balance he lets him cook. The Packers with Love average 2 touchdowns per second half, and rank sixth in second half scoring. It was a similar story last season, when they ranked eighth in second half scoring, averaging 13.2 points.
As for Chicago, they rank fourth in second half scoring averaging 14.1 points over the final 30 minutes. Caleb Williams and company put up 18 and 16 second half points in their first two matchups versus Green Bay, and have scored at least 16 second half points in seven straight outings.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
