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Divisional Round Weather Forecasts – Best QB Props to Target in the Cold
By Chris Wright in NFL News
Published:
- Two Divisional Round games will be played in near-freezing temperatures
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford has never played in a game where the temperature was below 20 degrees
- Below, see the Divisional Round weather forecasts for all four games plus QBs performances in cold weather
Nothing says playoff football quite like the sight of snow piled up on sidelines, players blanketed with overcoats, or a rush of air flowing through their face mask with every breath.
Not everybody will face frigid conditions during the NFL playoffs Divisional Round this weekend, but two games are expected to be played in conditions near or well-below freezing: Texans vs Patriots, and Rams vs Bears.
As such, I have compiled the cold-weather game logs for all four QBs, plus the best possible player props to bet for Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, CJ Stroud, and Drake Maye.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears Weather Impact on QBs
The temperature is expected to be around 18°F at kickoff at Soldier Field for the Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears NFC Divisional Round game on Sunday, January 18. Snow is possible.
Matthew Stafford Game Log in Cold Weather
Matthew Stafford has never played in a game where the temperature at kickoff was below 20 degrees F. The coldest start time Stafford has encountered is 23 degrees. The expected temperature at kickoff Sunday is 18°F.
Record: 2-2 in games below 30°F. Data from Sportradar.com
Matthew Stafford Player Prop & Best Bet
Oddsmakers aren’t expecting the cold weather to impact Stafford’s total passing yards. BetMGM has set Stafford’s passing yards Over/Under at 270.5 on January 15. He hasn’t met that threshold yet in four cold-weather games — and this will be the most severe weather game he has played in.
Best bet: Under 270.5 passing yards (-115) at BetMGM
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Caleb Williams Passing Logs in Cold Games
Caleb Williams has played in four games in which the temperature was below 30 degrees — including three games in which the temperature was below 20.
Record: 2-1 in games below 20°F.
Caleb Williams Player Prop & Best Bet
Williams has more experience not only in sub-20-degree weather games, but also games at Soldier Field, where the wind complicates the throwing task. Oddsmakers have set his passing yards total at 218.5. He has exceeded that total once in three games under these conditions. Williams threw for 361 yards in the Wild Card win over Green Bay, but the temperature at kickoff was 32°F.
Best Bet: Over 218.5 yards (-114) at FanDuel.
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Houston Texans at New England Patriots Weather Impact on QBs
The temperature is expected to be around 35°F at kickoff at Gillette Stadium for the Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots AFC Divisional Round game on Sunday, January 18.
CJ Stroud Game Log in Cold Weather
Here’s a look at how Texans quarterback CJ Stroud has performed in similar weather conditions.
Record: 2-3 in games below 35°F.
CJ Stroud Player Prop & Best Bet
Houston has won 10 consecutive games, largely on the strength of Stroud’s right arm and poise. He has played in similar conditions, including in the Wild Card win at Pittsburgh, during which he passed for 250 yards. Oddsmakers have set his Over/Under passing total at 208.5 and our analysis believes he will surpass that.
Best Bet: Over 208.5 yards (-114) via BetMGM
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Drake Maye Passing Logs in Cold Games
Record: 5-3 in games 36°F or below.
Drake Maye Player Prop & Best Bet
Drake Maye passed for 268 yards last week in his NFL playoff debut under almost the exact same weather conditions (35F). He has more experience in these kinds of cold-weather games than Stroud, and oddsmakers expect more out of him, as well.
DraftKings has set Maye’s Over/Under passing yards total at 220.5. Maye has exceeded that total five times in similar weather conditions and our analysis expects him to hit the Over on Sunday.
Best Bet: Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-113) at DraftKings
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A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.
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