49ers vs Seahawks Closing Odds & Picks for Divisional Round

• San Francisco is a 7-point underdog at Seattle in Saturday night’s NFC Divisional Round
• The spread opened at Seattle -7.5 to -8 before moving toward the 49ers
• See the closing 49ers vs Seahawks odds and line below, plus my final picks for the 8 pm ET kickoff

Saturday night’s NFC Divisional Round wraps up with the 49ers traveling to face the Seahawks at Lumen Field. This is the third matchup between these division rivals this season, with each team winning once.

San Francisco won 17-13 in Week 1 at Seattle, getting extremely fortunate after the Seahawks had 1st & 5 from the 9-yard line with one minute left. Sam Darnold took a devastating sack-fumble, and the Niners escaped with the win.

Seattle got revenge in Week 18, dominating 13-3 at San Francisco to clinch the division title. The Seahawks defense held the 49ers to just 173 total yards, the second-fewest under Kyle Shanahan as head coach.

Now they meet again with a trip to the NFC Championship on the line. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 pm ET on FOX from Lumen Field in Seattle, WA. Here are the closing odds and my final 49ers vs Seahawks picks.

49ers vs Seahawks Closing Odds

The betting line for tonight’s game opened with Seattle favored by 7.5 to 8 points depending on the book. Since then, the spread has moved 1 to 1.5 points toward San Francisco, settling at Seahawks -7 at most shops. Some books are still showing SF +6.5, while others have Seattle -7.

The total has seen even more movement. The over/under opened at 45.5 to 46.5 across different sportsbooks before dropping steadily throughout the week. It’s now down to 44 to 44.5, a full 1.5 to 2 points lower than the opening number.

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Odds as of Jan. 17 at consensus NFL betting apps. Claim the DraftKings promo code before wagering on the Divisional Round.

That line movement is notable when placing a bet. Sharp money came in on San Francisco early in the week, pushing the spread from SEA -8 down to SEA -7. The total saw consistent under action all week, dropping from 46 down to 44.5 with balanced juice on both sides.

49ers vs Seahawks Picks

• 49ers +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Under 44.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

I’m backing the 49ers +7 and the under 44.5 tonight in my 49ers vs Seahawks picks. Let me explain why, starting with the spread.

San Francisco is on their second straight road playoff game after beating Philadelphia last week. The 49ers have won their last four trips to Lumen Field, the Seahawks’ longest home losing streak against any opponent at this venue. Kyle Shanahan’s playoff experience also gives him an edge over first-year head coach Mike McDonald in close games.

The bigger factor is Seattle’s quarterback situation. Sam Darnold injured his oblique in practice Thursday and hasn’t thrown a football since. He’s expected to play, but how effective can he be dealing with an oblique injury?

Oblique injuries affect torque generation in the throwing motion. Even though it’s his non-throwing side, the left oblique is critical for right-handed quarterbacks to generate rotational power through their core. If Darnold’s compromised or Drew Lock has to come in, Seattle’s offense takes a hit.

The Seahawks can still win with their elite defense and run game, but asking them to win by more than a touchdown with a banged-up quarterback is a tall order. Seattle wants to control the clock with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, keeping possessions limited and the game close.

Seahawks Defense – 2025 Regular Season

Seattle’s defense is historically good. They ranked first in points allowed (17.2 PPG), first in yards per rush allowed (3.74), and first on third down (32.1%). They haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 26 consecutive games.

San Francisco still has weapons though. Brock Purdy completed 63.6% of his deep balls (20+ air yards) this season, the best mark in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey had two receiving TDs last week and has scored in all eight playoff games of his career. The 49ers can move the ball even against elite defenses.

I think this game comes down to the final possession, just like Week 1 did. The 49ers find a way to keep it within a touchdown, even if they don’t pull off the upset.

Why Bet the Under

The under is my favorite play of the night. Both meetings this season went under, with scores of 17-13 in Week 1 and 13-3 in Week 18. That’s two games, two unders, same defensive personnel on both sides.

Seattle’s game plan will be to run the football and shorten the game. The Seahawks attempted 39 rushes in Week 18, well above their 29.8 per-game average. They’ll do the same thing tonight, especially with Darnold’s oblique limiting how much they want to ask him to throw.

San Francisco is also banged up on offense. George Kittle tore his Achilles last week and is out for the season. He was Purdy’s most reliable red zone target with 74 catches for 1,041 yards and 8 TDs during the regular season. Backup Jake Tonges caught just 1 of 3 targets for minimal yardage against Philadelphia.

Fred Warner remains out with an ankle injury on defense. Without Warner’s run-fit discipline, the 49ers’ already poor run defense (31st-ranked, 44.5 PFF grade) becomes even more exploitable. Seattle will pound Walker and Charbonnet all night, controlling the clock and limiting scoring opportunities.

The total opened at 46 and has dropped to 44.5 with steady under pressure all week. A full two-point move on the total is pretty telling.

Looking for more 49ers vs Seahawks coverage? Check out:

• 49ers vs Seahawks Injury Report
• 49ers vs Seahawks TD Props

49ers Recent Dominance at Lumen Field

One more thing worth noting: San Francisco has absolutely owned Seattle at Lumen Field recently. The 49ers have won their last four trips to this stadium, outscoring the Seahawks 26.3 to 15.8 PPG over that stretch.

The Niners have averaged over 400 yards per game in those four meetings, with 171.5 rushing yards per contest. Seattle turned the ball over eight times compared to just three for San Francisco.

Head-to-Head: Last 4 at Lumen Field

That historical edge at Lumen Field is another reason I like the 49ers getting a full touchdown tonight. Seattle won in Week 18, but that game was in San Francisco. The dynamics change when these teams play in Seattle.

Per the NFL public betting trends, the public is split on this one. The spread is seeing balanced action, while the total has 58% of the handle on the under. That aligns with my play.

I’m taking 49ers +7 and under 44.5 for Saturday night. I think San Francisco should keep it within a touchdown in what figures to be a defensive battle.