Texans vs Patriots Expert Picks, Predictions, Betting Splits & Injuries (Jan 18)

The second and final game of the AFC Divisional Round sees the Houston Texans (13-5, 6-3 away, 10-8 ATS) travel to face the New England Patriots (15-3, 7-3 home, 12-6 ATS) at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff is set for Sunday, January 18, 2026, at 3:00 PM EST, with ABC and ESPN providing national coverage from Foxborough.

The primary storyline revolves around Houston’s devastating injury situation, with top receivers Nico Collins and Justin Watson both listed as out with concussions. Can the home favorites exploit Houston’s depleted receiving corps and advance, or will CJ Stroud find ways to overcome adversity on the road for the second straight week?

This comprehensive betting analysis examines every betting angle, from injury impacts to public sentiment, providing my Texans vs Patriots expert picks backed by concrete data.

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Texans vs Patriots Expert Picks & Divisional Round Predictions

Spread Pick: Houston Texans +3.5 (-115) at Caesars

The Texans enter the Divisional Round on an NFL-best ten-game win streak. Their offense is indeed banged up but their AFC-best scoring defense should be every bit as ferocious as it has been all season. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr combined for 27 sacks in the regular season, while the unit as a whole limited opponents to just 17.35 PPG. In the last 11 games, only one opponent has eclipsed 21 points, and eight have been held in the teens or lower.

In the Wild Card Round, the Texans held the Steelers to just 175 total yards of offense, with their own offense more than doubling Pittsburgh’s output (405 yards). Importantly, Houston did most of its damage without Nico Collins; Christian Kirk stepped up and had a massive 144-yard night on eight receptions, while five other Houston pass catchers made multiple receptions.

New England is coming off its own exceptionally good defensive effort in last Sunday’s 16-3 win over the Chargers. But I’m not betting the Texans to cover because I think Stroud and company will put up points. This game projects as a hyper-low scoring, field-position battle that comes down to the final drive. Getting the Texans with a hook at reasonable -115 odds is exceptional value.

Total Points Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at Caesars

Multiple factors converge to create a textbook under scenario. Houston’s receiver injuries directly impact their red-zone efficiency, where they only converted 47.37% of opportunities during the regular season with their full complement of weapons (fourth-worst in the NFL). New England’s offensive struggles – managing just 16.0 points against the Chargers last week – are likely to continue against Houston’s tenacious D.

The Patriots’ inability to finish drives (0-for-3 in red-zone conversions last week, 22nd in the NFL during the regular season at 54.55%) should lead to more field goals, while Houston’s compromised passing attack limits their explosive potential. Playoff football’s inherently conservative nature amplifies these tendencies.

Updated Texans vs Patriots Betting Lines

As of Sunday morning, the Texans/Patriots spread ranges from HOU +3.5 (-120) at BetRivers to NE -3.0 (-115) at Caesars. On the moneyline, FanDuel has the best price on the Pats at -168, while bet365 has the best price on a Houston upset at +150.

The game total is 40.5 across the board, which is a full point lower than the opening Divisional Round odds.

After removing sportsbook vig, the normalized win probabilities show New England at 60.9% and Houston at 39.1%.

Odds commentary as of 9:22 am ET, January 18th. Download the best football betting apps for the Divisional Round.

Public Betting Splits: Sharp Money Backs Houston Despite Injuries

The NFL public betting percentages reveal a clear divide between recreational and professional action, creating a classic sharp versus public scenario across multiple markets.

Money Distribution Breakdown:

• Moneyline: 74.22% of handle backing Houston Texans (+145)
• Spread: 62.24% of money on Texans +3
• Total: 51.33% of handle on Under 40.5

This represents a textbook example of sharp money flowing toward the road underdog despite obvious disadvantages. Large-stakes bettors are banking on Houston’s defense and Stroud’s talent overcoming the receiver injuries.

HOU vs NE Critical Injuries

Both teams enter with significant personnel questions that could dramatically impact game flow and betting markets.