Miami vs Indiana First Half Prediction: Expert Pick for CFP Championship Tonight

• Get expert first half prediction for Miami vs Indiana CFP National Championship (7:30 p.m. ET)
• Miami has gone 13-2 to the under on first half totals this season
• See my Miami vs Indiana first half pick and why the under is tonight’s best bet

No. 1 Indiana (16-0) meets No. 10 Miami (15-2) in tonight’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game with kickoff just over an hour away. The Hoosiers are 7.5-point favorites, but this marks the first national championship game where a team plays on their home field.

Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on ESPN. Here is my Miami vs Indiana first half prediction for the national championship.

Miami vs Indiana First Half Prediction

• Pick: First Half Under 23.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

My Miami vs Indiana first half prediction is the under 23.5. This play targets where both defenses have been most dominant—in opening halves.

Miami has gone 13-2 to the under on first half totals this season, allowing just 20 combined first-half points per game (both teams) across 15 games. In the playoffs, that number drops to 4.3 first-half points per game allowed. The Hurricanes held Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss to 13 combined first-half points across three CFP games.

When Miami faces teams allowing 120 rushing yards or fewer per game (like Indiana), they’re 6-0 to the under on first half totals. Indiana’s first half defense has been just as stingy at 6.2 points per game allowed in opening halves.

Indiana’s Road Struggles

The Hoosiers are 5-1 to the under on first half totals in away/neutral site games against teams averaging 31+ points per game. They allowed just 7 combined first-half points in their two playoff wins against Alabama and Oregon, but both of those games were essentially home contests.

Playing at Hard Rock Stadium changes the equation. This marks the first national championship game where a team plays on their home field. Indiana is the higher seed and technically the home team, but Miami gets the crowd and the comfort of their own stadium.

First Half Defensive Stats

Miami’s Offensive Struggles

Miami averages just 5.3 points in the first quarter—84th nationally and their lowest output of any quarter. The playoff numbers are even worse. The Hurricanes have scored only 3 total points in all first quarters combined across three CFP games.

Against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl, Miami’s opening drive ate up 13 plays and over seven minutes but produced only a field goal. A second lengthy first-quarter drive ended in a punt after a holding penalty wiped out an 18-yard run. Miami’s first score has been a field goal in four of their previous six games.

This isn’t Carson Beck struggling. It’s Miami’s approach. They grind out drives and eat clock, but they rarely strike fast early. That methodical style keeps first halves low-scoring.

Venue History Favors Under

Hard Rock Stadium has a history of under results. NFL games played there in the windiest months (November through January) have gone 58-47-1 to the under since 2005. Miami has beaten three higher seeds consecutively, and their first-half defensive intensity has kept games tight through the opening 30 minutes.

CFP title games are 0-12-1 to the over through 2024. Championship games feature conservative playcalling as teams feel each other out early. Both coaching staffs will emphasize ball security over aggressive shot-taking in the first half, particularly with everything on the line.

Slow Pace Limits Possessions

Both teams rank among the slowest-paced offenses in college football. Indiana ranks 122nd nationally in pace, Miami ranks 71st. Each averages 11 or fewer possessions per game in the CFP, holding the ball for more than 30 seconds per play.

With fewer possessions, the ceiling for first-half scoring drops dramatically. If each team gets 5-6 possessions in the first half, both would need to score on 40% of drives to push over 23.5 points. Given the defensive quality and conservative approach expected in a title game, that’s an unrealistic bar to clear.

Miami vs Indiana First Half Odds

The first half spread has Indiana at -4.5, with the Hoosiers getting even money (+100) while Miami is juiced to -120. Miami’s first half moneyline sits at +180, paying $180 profit on a $100 bet.

The first half total of 23.5 has the under at -112, requiring $112 to win $100. The over is -108. That slight juice on the under indicates books are getting some action but not enough to move the line.

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Odds as of January 20th. Bet on the CFP National Championship with the best college football betting apps.

The first half under 23.5 is the play for tonight’s national championship. Miami’s 13-2 record to the under on first half totals combined with Indiana’s 5-1 record in away/neutral games against high-scoring teams makes this the best value available.

If you want to bet the full game, make sure you read our Final Miami vs Indiana Prediction and Pick. And be sure to check out the best online sportsbooks for the latest lines before kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.