Early UFC 324 Odds, Predictions and Best Value

• UFC 324 goes down Saturday, January 24th from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
• Justin Gaethje challenges Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight title in the main event
• Check out the early UFC 324 odds, predictions and best value below

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The UFC returns after a six-week break with UFC 324, the first numbered event of the Paramount era. Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will fight for the interim lightweight title in the main event this Saturday, January 24th.

The prelims start at 6 pm ET on Paramount+ with the main card following at 9 pm ET. Here are the early UFC 324 odds and my predictions for the biggest fights on the card.

Early UFC 324 Odds

The early UFC 324 odds have Paddy Pimblett as a -230 favorite over Justin Gaethje in the main event. Pimblett’s implied win probability is 69.7%.

The biggest favorite on the card is Umar Nurmagomedov at -1450 over former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Ateba Gautier is close behind at -850 against Andrey Pulyaev. On the main card, Natalia Silva is a -410 favorite over Rose Namajunas in a potential women’s flyweight title eliminator.

The closest fight on paper is Modestas Bukauskas vs Nikita Krylov at -148/+124. Sharp money has been moving Michael Johnson from +165 to +130 against Alexander Hernandez, which tells you where the value might be on the prelims.

Odds as of January 20th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for all your MMA betting needs or browse UFC betting apps.

Early Gaethje vs Pimblett Prediction

Pimblett has looked better in every fight since joining the UFC. The 31-year-old is 7-0 in the promotion with five finishes, including that third-round TKO of Michael Chandler last year. He ragdolled Chandler and showed he belongs at the top of the division.

Gaethje is 37 and coming off a win over Rafael Fiziev. He’s had plenty of title shots and fumbled most of them. All five of his losses have come inside the distance, and he’s struggled against strong grapplers in the past.

Tale of the Tape

Pimblett brings serious size to 155 pounds. He balloons up between fights and uses that strength advantage to impose his will in the clinch and on the ground. His striking is unorthodox and a bit sloppy, but it’s all designed to set up takedowns and get the fight to the mat.

Gaethje has wrestling credentials, but I don’t think he’s ready to deal with Pimblett’s size and strength. His best chance is to box, land leg kicks, and stay out of the clinch. I don’t see that happening for 25 minutes.

I expect Pimblett to wear Gaethje down over two rounds, drag him to the mat, and find the rear-naked choke. Pimblett by submission is currently +130 at DraftKings, while the Under 2.5 rounds at -120 also offers some value.

• Gaethje vs Pimblett Early Pick: Pimblett by Submission (+130)

Early O’Malley vs Song Prediction

Sean O’Malley is fighting his first three-rounder since the Petr Yan split decision. After back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili, he’s looking to get back on track against a fellow striker in Song Yadong.

This matchup suits O’Malley well. Song is a technical striker who moves forward and throws clean combinations, but he’s hittable. O’Malley’s reach and timing should give him problems from distance.

Song’s path to victory is landing something big, but I don’t think he has the power to put O’Malley away. I expect O’Malley to pick him apart and get the finish late.

• O’Malley vs Song Early Pick: Sean O’Malley (-205)

Other UFC 324 Predictions

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis:

Lewis is 40 and has been stopped when he can’t land the big shot early. Cortes-Acosta has a solid chin and improved takedown defense. His jab and pressure should wear Lewis down as the fight goes on. I expect a late stoppage.

• Pick: Cortes-Acosta by TKO (-115)

Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas:

Silva is on a 13-fight winning streak and clean-swept Alexa Grasso last time out. But -410 feels too wide. Namajunas has championship experience and showed she can still compete against Miranda Maverick. Silva should win, but Rose at plus 320 isn’t a bad flier.

• Pick: Natalia Silva by Decision

Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva:

Allen has been out for nearly two years with a shoulder injury. Jean Silva walks opponents down and throws with bad intentions. Allen tends to be gun-shy at times, and that could cost him against a guy this aggressive. I think Silva gets the knockout.

• Pick: Jean Silva by KO

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo:

Nurmagomedov at -1450 is a massive favorite, but it makes sense. Figueiredo has no path to victory unless he lands a big shot or catches a guillotine. I expect Nurmagomedov to grind him down and get the late finish.

• Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov via Submission

Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson:

Perez is better than his 1-4 record suggests. Those losses came to Pantoja, Mokaev, Taira, and Almabayev. Johnson is coming off a knockout of Loney Kavanaugh, but tends to wait too long and doesn’t have great finishing ability. Perez should push the pace and win on the scorecards.

• Pick: Alex Perez (+170)

Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez:

Sharp money has moved Johnson from +165 to +130. He’s on a three-fight winning streak for the first time in 11 years and looked sharp against Zell Huber. Hernandez has power but struggles to win minutes without his wrestling. Johnson should outpoint him if he avoids the big shot.

• Pick: Michael Johnson (+130)

Modestas Bukauskas vs Nikita Krylov:

Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak with knockout losses to Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes. Bukauskas is 6-1 in his second UFC run and coming off a nasty elbow knockout of Paul Craig. His defensive grappling has improved, and he should be able to keep this standing. I expect Bukauskas to touch him up on the feet and find the finish.

• Pick: Modestas Bukauskas by KO

Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev:

Gautier is the next big thing at middleweight. He’s finished all three UFC opponents in the first round, two of them in under two minutes. He’s only 23 and has serious knockout power. Pulyaev is a flashy striker, but he should struggle to handle Gautier’s explosiveness. This shouldn’t last long.

• Pick: Ateba Gautier by KO Round 1

Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman:

Two heavyweight wrestlers are squaring off. Hokit is a former All-American who went 7-0 with seven finishes before joining the UFC. Freeman has an Olympic wrestling background and solid Taekwondo, but he doesn’t always push the pace.

FIRST ROUND FINISH FOR JOSH HOKIT 👊 #UFCVegas111 pic.twitter.com/wnP25AgPoD

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 8, 2025

Hokit should be more aggressive and willing to grind. I expect him to smother Freeman and get a second or third-round stoppage.

• Pick: Josh Hokit by TKO

Cameron Smotherman vs Ricky Turcios:

Turcios is 1-3 in the UFC and getting worse. He pushes the pace but isn’t accurate with his shots. Smotherman is a patient striker with good footwork who should be able to counter Turcios all night. As long as Smotherman keeps it standing, he should win on the scorecards.

• Pick: Cameron Smotherman by Decision

Best Bet UFC Parlay:

Paddy Pimblett + Umar Nurmagomedov + Cortes-Acosta (+100)

For my early UFC 334 parlay, I’m combining three favorites for a plus-money payout of +100. Paddy Pimblett, Umar Nurmagomedov and Cortes-Acosta are all heavy UFC 324 favorites. They should take care of business against opponents who are either aging or outmatched.

If you tail this UFC 324 parlay in the week, you could get much more favorable odds than if you wait for Saturday. As it stands right now, a successful $100 wager on our UFC parlay would profit $100.

UFC 324 Early Value

The early UFC 324 betting lines are mostly in line. Pimblett at -230 feels right given the grappling advantage he should have over an aging Gaethje. The value is in the method of victory props if you want to get creative.

Alex Perez at +170 is being overlooked because of his recent losses to elite competition. The sharp money on Michael Johnson tells you where the value is in that fight. Your best early UFC 324 plays are Perez as an underdog, Johnson at plus money, and the heavy favorite parlay.