Best Early Player Props to Bet in Patriots vs Broncos

• Bo Nix’s injury puts Jarrett Stidham player props in the spotlight
• Drake Maye also has a favorable Over 1.5 touchdown passes prop
• We explore the player prop market and recommend the best bets for Patriots vs Broncos

The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are one step from returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since their legendary quarterbacks left.

They’ll meet Sunday, January 25 in the AFC Championship at Mile High in Denver. Kickoff is set for 3 pm, ET (CBS).

This title game takes on added intrigue following Bo Nix’s devastating ankle injury in the Divisional Round victory over Buffalo, thrusting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham into the spotlight. The former Patriots backup now faces his old team with championship aspirations on the line. The market has responded accordingly — his passing props reflect increased confidence in his ability to move the ball through the air.

New England is led by its NFL MVP candidate, quarterback Drake Maye.

New England is a consensus 4.5-point favorite, but this analysis will examine the individual matchups and identify the most compelling player prop opportunities for Broncos vs. Patriots in the AFC Championship.

Patriots vs Broncos Player Props & Betting Lines

Passing Props

The passing prop market tells a fascinating story of adaptation and opportunity. Maye’s passing yards line has settled at 226.5 after opening at 228.5, suggesting slight market correction toward a more conservative projection. His completions prop remains steady at 19.5, though the over odds have shifted from -118 to -110, indicating balanced action on both sides. Most notably, Maye’s passing touchdown line has seen increased confidence, with over 1.5 TDs moving from +118 to +109, reflecting belief in his red zone efficiency against Denver’s defense.

Stidham’s props have undergone significant adjustments since the Nix injury. His passing yards jumped from an opening 185.5 to 199.5, acknowledging his expanded role in the offense. The completions line climbed from 18.5 to 19.5, with over odds dramatically strengthening from +104 to -124. Perhaps most telling is his touchdown prop, where over 0.5 passing TDs has shortened from -210 to -230, indicating near certainty he’ll find the end zone at least once.

Rushing & Receiving Props

The ground and pound narrative for New England centers on Rhamondre Stevenson, whose rushing attempts prop increased from 11.5 to 12.5, though over odds have softened from -138 to -104. His dual-threat capability remains valuable, with combined rushing and receiving yards totaling 70.5, down slightly from an opening 71.5.

TreVeyon Henderson’s role appears more defined, with rushing attempts decreasing from 9.5 to 8.5, yet over odds swinging dramatically from +118 to -135, suggesting concentrated usage when he touches the ball. His receiving involvement has ticked up from 4.5 to 5.5 yards.

Among Patriots pass-catchers, Stefon Diggs has seen his receiving yards prop climb from 44.5 to 47.5, indicating increased target expectations. Hunter Henry’s line moved similarly from 40.5 to 43.5, with reception over odds firming from -136 to -130. Kayshon Boutte represents perhaps the most intriguing prop movement, with receiving yards rising from 36.5 to 38.5 and reception over odds strengthening significantly from -112 to -150.

Denver’s backfield presents interesting dynamics with J.K. Dobbins questionable. RJ Harvey’s props have declined across the board – rushing yards from 48.5 to 42.5, receiving yards from 21.5 to 19.5, and combined totals from 73.5 to 65.5. This reduction suggests either shared workload concerns or matchup-specific adjustments.

Courtland Sutton remains the primary aerial threat with receiving yards at 49.5 (up from 48.5) and reception over odds improving from +124 to +111. Evan Engram has seen modest increases from 19.5 to 21.5 receiving yards, with over odds moving from -114 to -116.

Touchdown Scorer Props

The touchdown scorer market reveals significant shifts, particularly for Denver players. Rhamondre Stevenson leads Patriots options at +110 for anytime scorer, maintaining his status as New England’s primary red zone threat.

The most dramatic movement involves Jaleel McLaughlin, whose anytime TD odds plummeted from +700 to +268, with first TD odds crashing from +3000 to +1400. This suggests potential increased involvement if Dobbins remains limited.

Jarrett Stidham’s rushing touchdown odds have shortened dramatically from +1000 to +420, indicating belief in his dual-threat capability under pressure. Conversely, several Broncos receivers have seen their odds lengthen – Courtland Sutton from +200 to +282, Marvin Mims Jr. from +330 to +430, and Evan Engram from +350 to +500.

Broncos vs Patriots Best Player Prop Bets

Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230) via DraftKings

The market’s overwhelming confidence in Stidham throwing at least one touchdown reflects solid analytical backing. Despite Denver’s red zone struggles (25.0% touchdown conversion rate), Stidham has demonstrated consistent scoring ability when given expanded opportunities. During his four starts as a Patriot in 2022-2023, he threw multiple touchdowns in three contests, including a crucial December performance where he connected twice against division rivals.

The championship setting favors aggressive play-calling, and Denver’s offensive coordinator has historically pushed tempo in must-score situations. Stidham’s familiarity with high-pressure scenarios, combined with reliable targets like Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram, creates multiple pathways to reach paydirt. The implied 69.7% probability appears conservative given situational factors.

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Drake Maye Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+105) via BetMGM

Maye threw three touchdown passes in horrific conditions to help New England beat Houston in the Divisional Round. He has thrown two or more touchdown passes 11 times this season, including the playoffs.

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Kayshon Boutte Over 2.5 Receptions (-150) via FanDuel

Boutte’s ascending role in the Patriots offense aligns perfectly with championship-game dynamics. His reception prop has gained significant market backing, moving from -112 to -150, indicating professional money recognizing his increased target share. The statistical foundation supports this confidence: Boutte recorded 3+ receptions in 4 of his final 6 regular season games, averaging 4.8 targets per contest during that span.

Denver’s defensive scheme preferences work in Boutte’s favor. The Broncos utilize zone coverage on many passing downs, creating natural opportunities for slot receivers to find soft spots in coverage. Patriots slot receivers historically average 4.6 receptions per game against zone-heavy defenses, well above Boutte’s 2.5 threshold. With Hunter Henry potentially limited, additional targets should flow toward Boutte in intermediate routes.

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Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 Interceptions (-176) via Caesars

While backing a quarterback to throw an interception might seem counterintuitive, the statistical trends strongly support this outcome. The implied 66.1% probability reflects backup quarterbacks’ historical struggles in high-leverage situations. Stidham’s interception rate can be affected when facing playoff-caliber defenses, and postseason pressure traditionally amplifies turnover rates.

New England’s defense recorded 4 interceptions in their Divisional Round victory, demonstrating opportunistic ball skills. Their secondary forced turnovers during the 2025 regular season, ranking among the league’s top units. Stidham’s aggressive mindset, combined with championship-game urgency, creates a volatile combination favoring defensive playmakers.

Broncos vs Patriots Same Game Parlay Construction

This three-leg parlay leverages the most statistically sound outcomes while capitalizing on Stidham’s dual nature as both scorer and turnover risk. The combined implied probability suggests solid value for championship-level betting, with each selection backed by distinct analytical foundations. The correlation between increased passing volume (supporting the touchdown and interception props) and elevated target distribution (favoring Boutte) creates natural synergy within the parlay structure.

Broncos vs Patriots Injury Report & Player Prop Impact

Nix’s absence puts Jarrett Stidham props in the spotlight. His playoff inexperience creates opportunity and risk — increased passing volume supports touchdown and yardage props, while pressure-induced mistakes favor the interception angle.

Dobbins’ questionable status with a foot injury creates the most intriguing prop implications. If he’s limited or inactive, Jaleel McLaughlin becomes an exceptional value play. His anytime touchdown odds crashed from +700 to +268, suggesting insider information about expanded usage. RJ Harvey’s props have been reduced across all categories, potentially creating contrarian value if Dobbins surprisingly plays full snaps.

New England’s defensive injuries to Marte Mapu and Harold Landry III could influence the game script significantly. Without their premier pass rusher, Denver might lean more heavily on intermediate passing concepts, favoring receivers like Courtland Sutton and slot options. However, the Patriots’ opportunistic secondary remains intact, maintaining confidence in forcing turnovers against an inexperienced playoff quarterback.

Broncos vs Patriots AFC Championship Odds

Current Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: New England Patriots (-248) | Denver Broncos (+204)
• Spread: New England Patriots -4.5 (-115) | Denver Broncos +4.5 (-105)
• Total Points: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-109)

Odds courtesy of consensus sportsbook pricing at publication

The Patriots enter as substantial road favorites despite playing at altitude, with their -248 moneyline implying approximately 71% win probability. This confidence reflects their superior quarterback situation with Drake Maye’s playoff experience compared to Jarrett Stidham’s emergency role. The 4.5-point spread suggests expectations of a competitive but ultimately controlled Patriots victory.

The total points line at 42.5 indicates conservative scoring projections, likely influenced by championship-game defensive intensity and questions surrounding Denver’s offensive efficiency with a backup quarterback. The balanced over/under odds suggest uncertainty about pace and scoring frequency, making individual player props potentially more valuable than traditional team-based wagers.