Gaethje vs Pimblett Start Time & Last-Minute Prop Prediction for UFC 324

• Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett fight for the interim lightweight title at UFC 324 tonight
• The Gaethje vs Pimblett start time is projected for approximately 11:30 pm ET / 8:30 pm PT
• Check out the full start time breakdown and our last-minute prop prediction below

UFC 324 is finally here. Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will fight for the interim lightweight title tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This is the first UFC event on Paramount+, and the main card starts an hour earlier than usual.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Gaethje vs Pimblett start time and a last-minute prop prediction I like.

Gaethje vs Pimblett Start Time

The UFC 324 main card kicks off at 9 pm ET, one hour earlier than the old pay-per-view format. Gaethje vs Pimblett is the fifth and final fight on the main card, so the start time for the main event is projected around 11:30 pm ET depending on how long the earlier fights last.

The prelims start at 7 pm ET and early prelims at 5:30 pm ET. Everything streams exclusively on Paramount+ with no traditional pay-per-view option. Sign up to watch right here.

Gaethje vs Pimblett Last-Minute Prop Prediction

Bet365 has a profit boost on this fight that caught my eye. The “Striker’s Delight” prop needs both Gaethje and Pimblett to land 50+ significant strikes. The unboosted line is -105, but the boost pushes it to +200. A $10 bet returns $30.

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SBD's Odds Boost of the Day:

J. Gaethje & P. Pimblett: Each 50+ Significant Strikes Landed

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-105
+200

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I think there’s real value here. Let me explain why.

Gaethje averages 6.59 significant strikes per minute, one of the highest rates in the lightweight division. At that pace, he hits 50 strikes in about 7.6 minutes. Pimblett averages 5.2 strikes per minute, which means he needs roughly 9.6 minutes to get there. This is a five-round championship fight with 25 minutes of potential action.

Looking at their recent fights, the numbers hold up. Gaethje landed 106 significant strikes against Tony Ferguson, 94 against Rafael Fiziev, and 89 against Dustin Poirier in just two rounds. Pimblett landed 106 against Ferguson, 87 against Michael Chandler, and 73 against Jared Gordon. Both guys clear 50 strikes regularly when fights go past two rounds.

The stylistic matchup supports this prop too. Gaethje is a pressure fighter who throws volume and walks guys down. He’s not looking for one big shot. Pimblett uses his striking to set up grappling, but he still throws with frequency. Neither fighter is going to sit back and wait.

The main risk is an early finish. If Pimblett submits Gaethje in the first round, neither guy hits 50. But the fight to go the distance is priced at +240 yes and -350 no, which means oddsmakers expect this to last a while.

Gaethje has a 68% takedown defense rate and has shown he can survive on the ground. He’s been submitted twice in his career, but both were against elite grapplers in Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.

At +200, the implied probability is 33.3%. Based on strike rates and fight duration history, I think the actual probability is closer to 65-70%. That’s a significant edge.

The odds boost makes this even better. You’re essentially getting paid 3-to-1 on something that should hit more often than not. Over 7,000 bets have already been placed on this boost, which tells you the market sees value here too. It’s not a guarantee, but the math works in your favor.

• Prop Pick: Both fighters 50+ significant strikes (+200 boosted at Bet365)

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Good luck tonight. The Paramount era starts now.