Lopez vs Stevenson Latest Odds, Expert Prediction & Pick

• Shakur Stevenson is a -290 favorite over Teofimo Lopez in New York on Saturday
• Stevenson is moving up from lightweight to junior welterweight to challenge Lopez for his WBO belt
• See below for the Lopez vs Stevenson latest odds, plus my expert prediction and pick

The WBO junior welterweight title is on the line tonight, as Teofimo Lopez takes on the top-ranked lightweight Shakur Stevenson. This will be Lopez’s fourth title defense, and online sportsbooks aren’t expecting him to leave the ring with the belt this time.

They’ve pegged Stevenson as a hefty favorite, despite the 28-year-old stepping up a weight class. Stevenson enters the ring with a perfect 24-0 record and is looking to become a four-division world champion.

The fight is expected to take place around 11 pm ET, inside Madison Square Garden, in New York, with DAZN handling the broadcast duties.

Lopez vs Stevenson Latest Odds

Odds at Bet365. Get the Bet365 bonus code to use on the Lopez vs Stevenson fight.

The odds for this bout vary across different sportsbooks, so make sure to shop for the most favorable number using the best boxing betting sites. Stevenson is currently listed anywhere from a -290 to -300 favorite, which is down slightly from earlier in the week.

Neither fighter is much of a knockout artist, which explains why this fight is -600 to go the distance. Lopez is currently a +240 underdog to retain the title, but it’s worth noting he’s overcome worse odds in the past, prevailing as a 4-1 underdog in the biggest win of his career over Vasiliy Lomachenko.

If you aren’t able to bet on this fight legally in your state, make sure to check out prediction markets, as Kalshi is among the platforms offering markets for Saturday’s fight.

Lopez vs Stevenson Prediction and Pick

• Teofimo Lopez Moneyline (+240)
• Teofimo Lopez Win by Points or Decision (+420)

These two sparred together a decade ago as teenagers. Now they square off with sky-high stakes, and I can’t help but feel like Lopez is being slighted in the market. The champ reportedly got the better of Stevenson 10 years ago in a Miami gym, and I believe he has the tools to hand him his first professional defeat.

Look, I get it. Stevenson is a tactician in the ring. His defense, ring control and evasiveness make him nearly impossible to hit. He controls fights with his footwork and jab, keeping his opponents at a distance where they can’t hurt him.

Stevenson has shown moments of offensive brilliance, but they’re nowhere near as prevalent as you’d like to see from such a big favorite.

Teofimo Lopez vs Shakur Stevenson

He’s often been accused of being a boring fighter, but people said that about Floyd Mayweather Jr. as well, and his career turned out just fine. What’s interesting about this bout, is Lopez will keep moving forward. The champ is an imposing fighter, and boasts more power than his opponent. It should also be noted that Stevenson has had a significant right-hand injury in the past, which has affected his power.

I mentioned neither fighter has prolific knockout skills, but of the two, Lopez is the more likely to stop his opponent. 13 of his 22 victories have come by knockout, and he has the athleticism, explosiveness and speed to hurt Stevenson.

Teofimo Lopez Last 5 Fights

They key for Lopez will be to not try and do too much too soon. Stevenson is way too smart of a boxer to let his guard down early, and if Lopez starts throwing wild punches, Stevenson will pick him apart. Lopez will have to pick his spots and back Stevenson into the ropes or corner, where he can control the fight and score some valuable points.

Ultimately, this fight seems destined to go the distance, which I think makes Lopez a more enticing pick. He’s going to be the more aggressive fighter, and that won’t go unnoticed by the judges. If he can build an early lead, he’ll force Stevenson out of his comfort zone, and that’s when he’ll be most vulnerable.

The odds suggest Stevenson is head and shoulders above Lopez, and I just don’t believe that to be true. That makes Lopez an easy bet for me on the moneyline, and I’ll also take a sprinkle of him to win by decision at +420, which is his most likley method of victory.