Ohio State vs Maryland Picks & Best Bets on Feb 5 – Can Buckeyes Cover as Road Favorites?

Published: February 5, 2026 at 4:30 pm EST

Ohio State faces Maryland. — Ohio State Buckeyes center Ivan Njegovan (7) dunks over Penn State Nittany Lions forward Ivan Juric (3) during the second half of the NCAA men's basketball game at the Schottenstein Center in Columbus on Jan. 26, 2026. Ohio State won 84-78.

Ohio State is 7.5-point road favorite at Maryland
The Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this season
Smart money is siding with the Under 151.5, anticipating a controlled defensive effort

Ohio State heads to the XFINITY Center tonight to face a spiraling Maryland squad. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 pm, ET (FS1).

Ohio State (14-7, 6-5 Big Ten) has lost three consecutive road games but gets a reprieve tonight against the Terps (8-13, 1-9 B1G), who have lost three in a row and seven of their past eight games.

The Buckeyes are 7.5-point road favorites.

Our analysis breaks down the matchup and offers expert betting advice for Ohio State at Maryland.

Ohio State vs Maryland Best Bets

With the Buckeyes installed as clear road favorites, the market is reacting to the significant gap in offensive production. Ohio State brings a multifaceted attack led by one of the conference’s premier scorers, while Maryland’s offense has often stalled, relying too heavily on inefficient volume. Below are the top value plays for this Thursday night conference clash.

Best Bet: Ohio State -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The metrics present a compelling case for laying the points with the road team. We are backing Ohio State to cover the -7.5 spread, capitalizing on a mismatch in offensive firepower.

Ohio State boasts a “three-headed monster” capable of stressing Maryland’s defense from multiple angles. Bruce Thornton is operating at an All-American level, averaging 19.5 points per game on 55.4% shooting. He is flanked by John Mobley Jr. (15.8 PPG) and Devin Royal (14.1 PPG), providing the Buckeyes with the depth necessary to extend leads.

In contrast, Maryland’s offense lacks efficiency. Leading scorer David Coit (14.8 PPG) is a volume shooter, attempting a team-high 234 field goals but converting at just 41.9%. Maryland’s inability to trade baskets efficiently — evidenced by its -7.2 average scoring margin — makes the Buckeyes the superior side.

Total Prediction: Under 151.5 Points (-110) at Bet365

Despite Ohio State’s offensive rating, the smarter play on the total is the Under 151.5.

For this game to eclipse the total, Maryland would likely need to contribute significantly to the scoreboard, a task it has failed to do consistently in conference play. The Terrapins average just 72.5 points per game, and outside of Coit, scoring options are scarce. While Pharrel Payne shoots a high percentage near the rim (62.4%), his low volume (8.5 attempts/game) limits his impact on the game’s overall pace.

Expect Ohio State to control the tempo, executing in the half-court and limiting transition opportunities. Sharp bettors are banking on a game script where Ohio State builds a lead and bleeds the clock, keeping the final score in the 140-145 range.

Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting data from the XFINITY Center showdown reveals a distinct consensus on the winner, but a divide regarding the total.

Moneyline Action

The public is heavily backing the road favorites. Ohio State is commanding 96.14% of the moneyline tickets and an overwhelming 90.03% of the total handle. There is virtually no financial support for a Maryland upset, aligning with the “fade the public” concerns usually associated with such lopsided splits, though the statistical mismatch here justifies the consensus.

Total Action

A potential “sharp vs. public” divide is emerging on the total.

Ticket Count: The public is undecided, with a near-even split (50.36% Under vs. 49.64% Over).
Money Handle: The handle tells a different story, with 55.69% of the money backing the Under.

When the money percentage (55.69%) exceeds the ticket percentage on the Under, it indicates larger, sharper wagers are betting on a lower-scoring affair, supporting our analysis of the Under 151.5.

Ohio State vs Maryland Stats

Statistic	Ohio State	Maryland
Overall Record	14-7	8-13
Conference Record	6-5	1-9
RPI Ranking	55	160
Points Per Game	82.2	72.5
Points Allowed	73.5	79.7
Scoring Margin	+8.7	-7.2
Scoring leader	Bruce Thornton (19.5 ppg)	David Coit (14.8 ppg)
Rebounds Per Game	35.5	34.2

Analyzing the Mismatch

The most critical disparity is Offensive Efficiency vs. Defensive Liability. Ohio State scores nearly 10 points more per game (82.2) than Maryland (72.5), while Maryland’s defense surrenders nearly 80 points nightly.

Star Power: The individual matchup favors the visitors. Bruce Thornton (19.5 PPG, 2.92 assist-to-turnover ratio) manages the game with precision. Conversely, Maryland’s David Coit (1.81 turnovers per game) struggles with ball security and efficiency.

Ohio State vs. Maryland Odds

Spread: Ohio State -7.5 (-108) | Maryland +7.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Ohio State -329 | Maryland +260
Total: Over 151.5 (-109) | Under 151.5 (-111)

Odds as of February 05, 2026, from consensus.

The market has positioned Ohio State as a substantial favorite, with implied probabilities suggesting the Buckeyes win this game roughly 3 out of 4 times. The -329 moneyline translates to a 73.4% vig-free win probability for Ohio State, leaving Maryland with just a 26.6% chance to defend their home court.

For bettors considering the moneyline:

A $20 bet on Ohio State (-329) returns a profit of $6.08.
A $20 bet on Maryland (+260) offers a higher risk/reward profile, returning a profit of $52.00.

Given the payouts and probabilities, the spread offers the most viable entry point for backing the favorite.

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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