Xavier vs St John’s Picks & Best Bets on Feb 9

• St. John’s looks to extend a nine-game winning streak as heavy favorites vs. Xavier
• Smart money trends indicate significant confidence in St. John’s covering the spread
• We identify high-value opportunities for Xavier at St. John’s

No. 19 St. John’s hosts Xavier tonight at Madison Square Garden. Tip-off is set for 6:30 pm, ET (Fox Sports 1).

The Red Storm (18-5, 11-1 Big East) have won nine in a row, included a statement victory over No. 3 UConn as well as an 88-83 win at Xavier on Jan. 24.

Xavier (12-11, 4-8 Big East) is searching for answers, particularly away from home where they hold a dismal 1-6 record. While the father-son coaching duel between Rick and Richard Pitino adds narrative intrigue, the on-court reality suggests a lopsided affair.

Our analysis breaks down Xavier at St. John’s and offers expert betting advice.

Xavier vs St. John’s Best Bets & Predictions

Here are our top picks and projections for this conference showdown.

Spread Pick: St. John’s -14.5 (-110) at Bet365

Laying 14.5 points in conference play typically requires a significant mismatch, and the data suggests we have exactly that. St. John’s is playing like a legitimate title contender, boasting an 11-1 conference record and significant momentum following its takedown of UConn. In contrast, Xavier is coming off a 32-point loss to that same UConn team and is just 1-6 in road contests.

The disparity in the frontcourt is the deciding factor here. St. John’s forward Zuby Ejiofor \anchors the paint on both ends, shooting 53.0% from the field while registering 2.0 blocks per game. Xavier’s defensive interior lacks the personnel to contain a Red Storm attack that also features Bryce Hopkins (13.6 PPG) and Dillon Mitchell. With Xavier conceding nearly 78 points per game and St. John’s scoring over 84, the home team has the firepower to extend this lead comfortably in the second half.

Key Trend: Xavier is 1-6 in road games this season, consistently failing to keep pace with upper-echelon conference opponents.

Total Pick: 1st Half Over 77.5 (-115) at Bet365

While the full-game total carries risk due to potential blowout pacing in the second half, the first-half market offers excellent value. St. John’s has established a pattern of starting games with high intensity during its current winning streak. Meanwhile, Xavier possesses enough offensive capability to trade baskets early before their defensive deficiencies take over.

The catalyst for this pick is Xavier’s Tre Carroll, a high-volume scorer averaging 17.9 points per game. Carroll’s aggressive shot selection (322 field goal attempts this season) ensures pace remains high early on. When combined with St. John’s efficient interior scoring, we expect a fast-paced opening stanza that eclipses the 77.5-point mark before rotations deepen late in the game.

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Best Player Prop: Tre Carroll Over 17.5 Points (-115) at DraftKings

Regardless of the scoreboard, Tre Carroll remains the focal point of the Musketeers’ offense. He shoots 50.6% and takes significantly more shots than any other Xavier player. In a game script where Xavier is likely trailing, Carroll will be forced to keep shooting to keep his team afloat.

Carroll has proven to be largely “matchup proof” thanks to his versatility, having knocked down 33 three-pointers this season. This inside-out game allows him to score even against stout defenses like St. John’s. With volume guaranteed—he has attempted 140 more shots than his next closest teammate—18 points is a highly attainable number.

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Public Betting Data

The college basketball betting public reveals sharp action on the home favorite.

Spread Trends

The spread market shows a classic “Pros vs. Joes” split. While ticket volume is nearly identical, the handle tells a different story.

• Bet Percentage: St. John’s 50.32% | Xavier 49.68%
• Money Percentage: St. John’s 74.17% | Xavier 25.83%

The fact that St. John’s is commanding nearly 75% of the money on just 50% of the tickets suggests that larger, sharper wagers are laying the points, undeterred by the double-digit line.

Moneyline Trends

There is virtually no belief in an upset at MSG.

• St. John’s: 96.58% of bets and 88.38% of money.
• Xavier: 3.42% of bets and 11.62% of money.

Total Trends

The public is heavily leaning toward a lower-scoring affair.

• Over: 20.49% of bets / 19.54% of money.
• Under: 79.51% of bets / 80.46% of money.

While the consensus favors the Under, likely anticipating St. John’s defense clamping down, our “1st Half Over” strategy targets the specific game flow before any potential garbage-time slowdowns occur.

Xavier vs St. John’s Stats Comparison

Xavier vs St. John’s Odds

The following odds are courtesy of ESPN Bet and Bet365.

• Moneyline: St. John’s -1408 | Xavier +820
• Spread: St. John’s -14.5 (-110) | Xavier +14.5 (-109)
• Total: Over/Under 161.0 (-110)

Odds as of February 09, 2026.

The market clearly views this as a mismatch, with the -1408 moneyline implying a massive probability gap.

Vig-Free Probabilities: Adjusting for the sportsbook’s hold, the implied win probability for the St. John’s Red Storm is approximately 89.6%. The Xavier Musketeers are given just a 10.4% chance of pulling off the upset.

Payout Calculation: For bettors considering the moneyline, a $20 wager on St. John’s would yield a profit of only $1.42, offering little value as a straight bet. Conversely, a $20 wager on the underdog Musketeers would return $164.00, though the statistical trends make this a highly speculative play.