Indiana vs Illinois Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Feb 15)

• The #8 Illinois Fighting Illini are big home favorites against the Indiana Hoosiers on Sunday
• The Illini have lost two straight for the first time this season, while Indiana has won five of six
• See the Indiana vs Illinois picks, predictions, odds, and betting splits on Feb. 15

Big Ten basketball highlight’s the Sunday slate as the #8 Illinois Fighting Illini (20-5, 11-3 B10, 12-2 home, 15-10 ATS) host the Indiana Hoosiers (17-8, 8-6 B10, 3-5 away, 13-12 ATS) in a critical conference tilt. Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET at the State Farm Center in Champaign, with national coverage on CBS.

The Illini enter as significant home favorites, though they have lost two straight in overtime (85-82 at Michigan State, 92-90 vs Wisconsin), which dropped them 2.5 games off the conference lead. The Hoosiers arrive in Champaign with positive regression indicators, riding a two-game winning streak. For bettors, this matchup presents a clash between a high-ceiling home team looking to stabilize and a road underdog with enough offensive firepower to disrupt the spread.

Indiana vs Illinois Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

With Illinois desperate to snap a skid and Indiana aiming to solidify its resume, the metrics suggest the 10.5-point line overvalues home-court advantage.

IU vs ILL ATS Pick: Indiana Hoosiers +10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

While the market rightfully favors Illinois at home, laying double digits against a top-tier scoring offense (Indiana rates 31st on offense at KenPom) is a negative-EV play. The data supports taking the points with the Indiana Hoosiers +10.5.

The handicap hinges on Indiana’s offensive efficiency. The Hoosiers feature the Big Ten’s second-leading scorer in Lamar Wilkerson, who is averaging 21.2 points per game on 46.2% shooting. In scenarios where a road underdog possesses a scorer capable of generating high-variance production, the probability of a backdoor cover increases significantly. Additionally, the Hoosiers have found secondary-scoring stability through Tucker DeVries, who is averaging 13.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per contest.

Illinois, while dynamic, has shown defensive regression in recent outings. The pressure to halt a losing streak often results in tighter possessions late in games, a script that historically favors the underdog catching a sizable number.

Indiana vs Illinois Game-Total Prediction: Over 151.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

The total is set at 151.5, and advanced metrics project a pace that supports the Over. Both rosters rank among the conference elite in offensive efficiency and perimeter shooting.

Illinois deploys the Big Ten’s most efficient deep threat in Keaton Wagler. The freshman sensation leads the conference in three-point percentage (43.7%) while posting 18.5 points per game. The Illini’s offensive scheme prioritizes spacing, forcing defenses to extend and creating driving lanes for secondary options.

Countering this, Indiana enters with a hot hand, having scored 78 and 92 points in their last two victories. With Wilkerson’s volume shooting and Sam Alexis dominating the interior (league-leading 73.8% two-point percentage), the Hoosiers have the personnel to trade baskets for 40 minutes. Expect a game script that pushes both teams into the 70s or 80s.

Best IU vs ILL Player Prop: Keaton Wagler Over 20.5 Points (-114 at FanDuel)

In a high-leverage “get right” spot, expect Illinois to funnel the offense through their most consistent weapon. Keaton Wagler is averaging 32.9 minutes and 18.5 points, with a usage rate of 24.9%. This volume confirms he is the primary option in crunch time. Given Indiana’s sporadic perimeter defense, Wagler projects to see high-quality looks from deep, making his points prop a solid value play.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Indiana Hoosiers Odds

The market has priced Illinois as a heavy favorite (-549 at BetMGM and shorter elsewhere) but that’s down from an opening price of -769. The spread ranges from 9.5 to 10.5. Indiana bettors can find the best price (+10.5 at -110) at either FanDuel or bet365; Illinois ATS backers can get 9.5 (-130) at DraftKings.

The game total also shows a one-point range from 151.5 to 152.5. Over bettors should take 151.5 (-108) at DraftKings; under bettors can get 152.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

Odds commentary as of 11:01 am ET.

Illinois vs Indiana Public-Betting Splits

The market sentiment for Sunday’s clash at the State Farm Center shows a sharp divergence between ticket count and handle, particularly on the total.

Point Spread

The Pick: Indiana Hoosiers +10.5

The college basketball public betting splits are fading the home favorite, aligning with my analysis. Currently, 57.52% of spread tickets and 55.2% of the money handle are on the Indiana Hoosiers. It is statistically rare to see a road underdog command the majority of the handle, suggesting the 10.5-point hook is perceived as inflated by both casuals and sharps. The lack of a split between tickets and money indicates a general market consensus that Illinois is overvalued at this number.

Point Total

The Pick: Over 151.5

The betting public is heavily invested in a shootout. The Over is commanding 75.13% of betting tickets. However, the signal is even stronger when analyzing the handle: 77.57% of the money is backing the Over. When the money percentage exceeds the ticket percentage on a high total, it indicates that larger, more sophisticated wagers are expecting offensive efficiency to trump defensive adjustments.

Moneyline

While the spread sees action on the dog, the moneyline remains firmly in Illinois’ corner. The Illini have attracted 93.73% of moneyline tickets. However, the money handle is lower at 78.48%. This 15% discrepancy implies that while the masses are using Illinois as a parlay piece, a segment of value-oriented bettors has placed speculative wagers on the Hoosiers (+475) to capitalize on the variance.

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