Tiafoe vs Hijikata Picks & Predictions for Delray Beach (Feb 16)

• Tiafoe is 1-1 vs. Hijikata, including 1-0 on hard courts
• Hijikata advanced through qualifying and won his opening round match
• Our analysis breaks down Tiafoe vs. Hijikata and offers expert betting advice

Fan favorite and 2018 champion Frances Tiafoe faces Australia’s Rinky Hijikata tonight in the Round of 32 at the ATP Delray Beach Open. The match begins at 8 pm, ET.

The baseliners have split previous two matches — though they haven’t met since June of 2024.

Tiafoe is the clear betting favorite and the higher-ranked player at world No. 28, but this matchup presents a distinct “trap” potential for bettors. The underdog Hijikata came through qualies with exceptional resilience, including saving four match points against Michael Mmoh. In contrast, Tiafoe is looking to bounce back from a straight-sets exit to Sebastian Korda in Dallas. Hijikata actually is higher in the year-to-date “Race” standings (No. 28) compared to Tiafoe (No. 51), leaving bettors to choose between current form or general ATP rankings suggest.

We break down the statistical trends and betting value for Tiafoe vs Hijikata and offer expert betting advice.

Tiafoe vs Hijikata Odds

Odds provided by Bet365 and are subject to change. Lock in the bet365 bonus code to get a promo to use on the Delray Beach Open.

Despite Hijikata’s recent momentum, oddsmakers have priced Tiafoe as the substantial favorite at 1.300 (-333). This implies a win probability of approximately 72.9% (vig-free) for the American, factoring in his historical pedigree at this venue and superior hard-court ranking. Hijikata is available at 3.500 (+250), implying just a 27.1% chance of an upset.

The spread market indicates an expectation of a competitive but decisive victory for Tiafoe, setting the line at -3.5 games. To cover, Tiafoe must break serve effectively and likely win in straight sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-4). The Total Games line is set at 21.5, with the Over favored at 1.800. This pricing aligns with the narrative that while Tiafoe is expected to win, Hijikata’s tenacious baseline game could force extended sets or a tiebreak.

Tiafoe vs Hijikata H2H

The sample size is small — and it includes a retirement after they had split sets — but the surface context is vital. Tiafoe dominated their only hard-court meeting at the 2023 US Open, showcasing his ability to overpower the smaller Australian.

Crucially, Hijikata enters this match with significant court time in Delray Beach. His qualifying campaign included a dramatic comeback against Michael Mmoh where he saved four match points, followed by a straight-sets win over Dalibor Svrcina. This recent “survival mode” tennis often translates well against seeded players who are playing their first match of the week.

Frances Tiafoe vs Rinky Hijikata Picks and Predictions

While the moneyline heavily favors Tiafoe, the underlying metrics for the early 2026 season paint a picture of a much tighter contest. Below are the best analytical bets for Monday night’s action.

Best Bet: Over 21.5 Games (-125 at Bet365)

The most statistically sound angle for this match relies on the “rust vs. rhythm” dynamic. Tiafoe tends to start tournaments slowly, often engaging in theatrical, extended sets fueled by crowd interaction rather than clinical efficiency. He arrives from Dallas following a disjointed performance against Korda.

Conversely, Hijikata is in supreme rhythm. The “Race” rankings — which track points specifically earned in 2026 — show Hijikata currently outperforming Tiafoe (No. 28 vs. No. 51). Hijikata has already played two high-intensity matches on these specific courts in the last 48 hours. His ability to extend rallies and his proven mental fortitude (saving match points vs. Mmoh) suggests he will not roll over. Expect Hijikata to force at least one long set (7-5 or 7-6), which makes the Over 21.5 a high-value probability play.

Value Pick: Rinky Hijikata +3.5 Games (+100 at Bet365)

Backing the underdog on the game spread offers excellent value at even money. While Tiafoe possesses the higher ceiling, his recent form has been volatile. He struggled to put away Terence Atmane in Dallas and has a tendency to lose focus when playing with a lead.

Hijikata’s game is built on gritty defense and redirecting pace — a style that often frustrates Tiafoe into unforced errors. Even if Tiafoe secures a straight-sets victory, a score of 7-6, 6-4 would still cash this ticket. Given Hijikata’s current form and the boost of qualifying, the +3.5 handicap provides a solid safety net against a favorite who is 2-2 in his last four matches.