Alcaraz vs Rinderknech Prediction, Best Bets & Odds at Qatar Open (Feb 17)

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz returns to competition today, marking his first appearance since completing the career Grand Slam at the Australian Open. Alcaraz faces France’s Arthur Rinderknech. Their Round of 32 Qatar ExxonMobil Open clash is scheduled for 11:30 am, ET.

They last met at the 2025 US Open, with Alcaraz winning their fourth-round match in straight sets.

Alcaraz is 4-0 vs. Rinderknech, but it hasn’t always been easy. Rinderknech, who is ranked No. 30 with a huge serve, twice has won sets off Alcaraz and has lost three other sets in tiebreakers. Over the past year, the 6-foot-5 Rinderknech has averaged 10 aces per match — good for 10th on the ATP Tour.

Of course, he’s facing Alcaraz, the top returner in the world.

Alcaraz remains a prohibitive favorite to cruise through this morning’s opener. For handicappers, the primary narrative centers on whether Alcaraz will display rust in his return or if Rinderknech can leverage the quick conditions to cover a substantial spread.

Alcaraz vs Rinderknech Odds

Odds provided by Bet365 and are subject to change. Lock in the bet365 bonus code to get a promo to use on the Qatar Open.

The game spread is the intriguing market, set at a daunting 6.5 games. The vig leans heavily toward Rinderknech covering at -163, suggesting oddsmakers are wary of Alcaraz blowing him out by a margin like 6-2, 6-3. Meanwhile, Alcaraz is priced at +120 to cover the -6.5 handicap. The total games line is set conservatively at 18.5, implying an expectation of a straight-sets victory for the favorite, likely featuring at least one lopsided set.

Alcaraz vs Rinderknech H2H

Alcaraz is 4-0 vs. Rinderknech, though the matches have been tight.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Best Bets & Predictions

While Alcaraz is the rightful favorite to advance this morning, the betting value lies in fading a blowout.

Arthur Rinderknech +6.5 Games (-163 at Bet365)

The 6.5-game spread feels inflated given the historical context of this matchup. In their previous 3-set meetings, Rinderknech has covered this number comfortably. At the 2025 ATP London (Queen’s Club), Alcaraz won 7-5, 6-4, resulting in a four-game differential. Even in a best-of-five scenario at the US Open, the games remained close (7-6, 6-3, 6-4), and Rinderknech was never blown off the court.

Rinderknech’s game relies on high-velocity first serves that limit rally length. With 23 aces combined in their last two matches, he generates enough free points to avoid multiple breaks of serve in a single set. To lose against a +6.5 spread in a standard two-set match, he would likely need to fall by a score of 6-2, 6-3. Given that he has forced Alcaraz into deep sets and three tiebreaks previously, backing the Frenchman to keep the margin within six games is a strong statistical play.

Total Games Over 18.5 (-120 at Bet365)

This total is remarkably low for a match involving a server of Rinderknech’s caliber. For the “Under” to cash, Alcaraz essentially needs to be perfect on return, breaking Rinderknech early and often. Their history suggests tight sets with one break. Alcaraz saw only two break opportunities in the entire London match and just five across three sets at last year’s US Open.

If Rinderknech maintains his average hold rate, a standard scoreline of 6-4, 6-3 would yield 19 games — enough to clear the total. With Alcaraz potentially shaking off minor rust, a tight first set is a distinct possibility, making the Over the logical angle.