Early UFC Houston Odds, Predictions and Best Value

• Anthony Hernandez (-285) faces former champion Sean Strickland (+230) in the UFC Houston main event on February 21
• Hernandez is riding an eight-fight win streak and could earn a title shot with a dominant performance
• Check out our early UFC Houston odds, predictions and best value below

The UFC returns from a rare week off with UFC Houston, a 14-fight card at the Toyota Center. Former middleweight champion Sean Strickland headlines against Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez in a matchup that could produce the next title challenger at 185 pounds.

Hernandez has won eight straight and ran through Roman Dolidze in his last outing, while Strickland lost back-to-back title fights to Dricus Du Plessis but remains dangerous. The co-main features Geoff Neal against short-notice replacement Uros Medic in a welterweight striker vs striker battle.

Here are the early UFC Houston odds and my predictions for the card.

Early UFC Houston Odds

Main Card

Prelims

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Bet the DraftKings promo code or check out our UFC betting apps page for more options.

UFC Houston Odds Analysis

Hernandez opened around -245 and has climbed to -285. That tells you the sharp money likes the grappling specialist against a former champion who got taken down seven times combined in his two fights with Du Plessis. Strickland at +230 works out to about 30% implied probability. The over 4.5 rounds at -175 says oddsmakers expect this to go deep.

The Brahimaj vs Soriano line has flipped completely. Soriano opened as a favorite, but Brahimaj is now -125 after money poured in on his side. Both guys are finisher-or-bust types. Brahimaj has 12 submission wins in 13 career victories. Soriano has knockout power but gives up takedowns.

The Njokuani vs Leal line has seen action too. Njokuani has dropped from +165 to +110 as money came in on his side. Leal got knocked out by 40-year-old Muslim Salikhov in his last fight. Njokuani has the reach and power to do the same thing.

Strickland vs Hernandez Prediction

I think Hernandez wins this fight. His style is a nightmare for Strickland.

Hernandez fights like a middleweight version of Merab Dvalishvili. He pushes a relentless pace, averages 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, and lands 48% of his shots. In his last seven fights, he’s landed at least three takedowns in every one, with six or more in five of those.

Tale of the Tape

Strickland’s takedown defense is decent at 76%, but he gave up six takedowns against Du Plessis in their first fight. He got right back up and only allowed two minutes of control time, but that was against a guy who primarily wanted to strike. Hernandez will shoot 15-20 times if he has to, and the cumulative effect of defending all those attempts adds up.

The other factor is Strickland’s striking approach. He needs to establish his jab and walk opponents down to win rounds, but Du Plessis showed in their rematch that constant forward pressure disrupts that rhythm. Hernandez brings that same energy with better wrestling.

• Strickland vs Hernandez Pick: Anthony Hernandez by Decision

More UFC Houston Predictions

Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic

Neal just got knocked out by Carlos Prates, but Medic is not Prates. Neal is the more skilled striker with better boxing and a nasty head kick. Medic comes out fast and loose with a 100% finish rate in his 12 wins, but his chin is questionable. Soriano hurt him bad before finishing him.

Medic stepped in on short notice after Kevin Holland pulled out, and the under 1.5 at -195 is juiced for a reason. I expect fireworks early, but Neal has the craft to survive Medic’s initial burst and find the finish.

• Pick: Geoff Neal by KO/TKO

Michel Pereira vs Zach Reese

Pereira has lost three straight and looked like a shell of himself against Abus Magomedov. Then Kyle Daukaus knocked him out in seconds. Something is off with Demolidor. The divorce drama and whatever else is going on has clearly affected him.

Reese is 6’4″ with real power, but he’s fought low-level competition. Pereira is still the better athlete and more skilled fighter when he shows up, so this feels like a coin flip. I’ll take Pereira at -155 to get one more win before the UFC cuts him, but this is a low-confidence pick.

• Pick: Michel Pereira by KO/TKO

Ante Delija vs Serghei Spivac

Spivac needs to wrestle to win. He offers nothing on the feet. In his last 10 fights, he’s landed more than 52 significant strikes just once. Delija is a brawler who finished Marcin Tybura in two minutes in his UFC debut.

The Delija vs Waldo fight was weird. He appeared to win by KO, but it got overturned due to an eye poke. They restarted the fight, and he got knocked out 30 seconds later after an adrenaline dump. I’m willing to throw that loss out. Delija should walk Spivac down and get the finish.

• Pick: Ante Delija by TKO

UFC Houston Early Value

The Njokuani line at +110 catches my eye. He was +165 last week before the money came in. Leal got slept by Salikhov, a 40-year-old, after walking forward throwing wild punches. Njokuani is 6’3″ with an 80-inch reach. He’s the better counter striker with more power, and Leal has to crash the pocket against a guy built to pick him apart from distance.

Dan Ige at +170 is interesting too. He’s 2-4 in his last six, but all four losses came against top-tier guys in Diego Lopes, Lerone Murphy, Bryce Mitchell, and Patricio Pitbull. Costa is a step down in competition, and Ige is never easy to finish. He’ll make this a dog fight.

Best Value Picks

• Chidi Njokuani +110
• Dan Ige +170
• Punahele Soriano +105