St. John’s vs Marquette Picks, Predictions & How to Watch (Feb 18)

• No. 17 St. John’s has won 11 in a row and is 6-1 ATS as a road favorite
• Marquette’s porous defense is a key reason our analysis likes the Over
• See why the road favorites are the smart play to cover the spread despite heavy public backing for the underdog.

No. 17 St. John’s travels to Milwaukee tonight hoping to complete its season sweep of Marquette. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 pm, ET (TNT).

St. John’s won Round 1, 92-68 on Jan. 13 at Madison Square Garden.

St. John’s (20-5, 13-1 Big East) is a decisive road favorite, riding an 11-game winning streak that has them just half a game behind UConn for the conference regular-season crown. Marquette (9-17, 4-11 Big East) has lost three of their last four games while struggling to find defensive consistency against top-tier competition.

This betting preview analyzes the key matchups to determine if Marquette can keep it close or if the Johnnies will continue their march toward March with another emphatic win.

St. John’s vs Marquette Picks & Predictions

St. John’s is tearing through the conference and boasting a 13-1 Big East record. Sportsbooks have positioned the Red Storm as significant favorites tonight. Marquette features a dynamic young playmaker in Nigel James Jr., but it is 0-7 against Top 50 opponents.

Best Bet: St. John’s -9.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

The statistical and situational gap between these programs is substantial. St. John’s is playing its best basketball of the season, fueled by a high-pressure system that generates easy transition buckets. A key factor here is the interior dominance of Zuby Ejiofor. The big man is averaging 16.2 points per game on 54.0% shooting, while cleaning the glass with 7.4 rebounds per contest. His physical presence in the paint is a nightmare matchup for a Marquette frontcourt that has struggled to defend the interior during conference play.

Marquette enters on a skid, and while the Golden Eagles have fought hard at home, they simply haven’t stopped elite teams. They recently surrendered 96 points to Xavier, highlighting a defensive fragility that St. John’s is perfectly built to exploit, just like it did in Round 1 at Madison Square Garden. With St. John’s winning by an average margin of 12.2 points in conference play this season, backing the Red Storm to win by double digits is the sharpest angle.

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Over/Under Pick: Over 157.5 (-110 at Bet365)

The teams combined for 160 points in mid-January. This total reflects the pace at which both teams operate. Marquette’s defense is conceding 77.7 points per game, and it has allowed 80+ points in five of its past nine games. Offensively, the Golden Eagles can score, led by freshman sensation Nigel James Jr. (15.8 PPG) and Chase Ross (14.7 PPG), who should find success in a game that figures to have a high number of possessions.

However, the primary driver for the Over is the St. John’s offense. Averaging 84.3 points per game, the Johnnies rank second in the Big East in scoring. Dillon Mitchell has been a catalyst during the winning streak, shooting a scorching 55.8% from the field. St. John’s relentless attack at the rim creates a high floor for scoring, and considering Marquette’s tendency to get into shootouts rather than defensive struggles, this game has all the makings of an 85-75 type of finish.

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Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting trends highlight a potential “sharp vs. public” divide, particularly regarding the spread.

Spread Trends

There is heavy public sentiment backing the home underdog. Currently, 72.35% of spread bets are on Marquette +9.5. Even more telling is the handle, with 80.66% of the money supporting the Golden Eagles. This indicates that the betting public is heavily buying into the “home dog in conference play” narrative, likely expecting a desperate effort from a struggling team. However, with St. John’s winning by an average margin of +12.2 points, fading this lopsided public action aligns with our analysis of a comfortable road win.

Total Trends

The total sees a slight lean toward the Under from the public, with 55.97% of tickets and 56.47% of cash on Under 157.5. This runs contrary to the statistical profile of both teams, particularly Marquette’s recent defensive lapses (allowing 96 to Xavier). When the public leans Under in a game involving a top-tier offense like St. John’s, the Over often presents value.

Moneyline Trends

Despite the heavy betting on Marquette to cover, there is virtually zero belief they will win outright. St. John’s has attracted 97.36% of moneyline bets and 99.67% of the handle. The market is effectively saying, “St. John’s wins, but Marquette keeps it close,” leaving the door open for a blowout that contradicts the public consensus.

St. John’s vs Marquette Stats Comparison

The statistical gap between these Big East foes helps explain the double-digit spread.

The most critical mismatch is St. John’s offense vs. Marquette’s defense. The Red Storm rank in the top 10 nationally for scoring offense, driven by their ability to finish inside. Marquette’s defensive field goal percentage (45.8%) is alarmingly high for a power conference team. Furthermore, the Rebounding Margin suggests St. John’s will generate significantly more second-chance opportunities. With Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell attacking the glass, Marquette’s negative rebounding differential is a major liability.

Offensively, Marquette relies heavily on volume. While Nigel James Jr. is a talented freshman capable of big numbers (recently posting 30 points and 12 assists vs. Xavier), the Golden Eagles’ overall shooting efficiency (43.1%) trails St. John’s by a wide margin. In a game that could turn into a track meet, efficiency usually prevails.

How to Watch St. John’s vs Marquette

Tonight’s Big East battle tips off at 9 pm, ET, and will be televised nationally by TNT.

St. John’s vs Marquette Odds

• Moneyline: St. John’s -483 | Marquette +361
• Spread: St. John’s -9.5 (-104) | Marquette +9.5 (-116)
• Total: Over/Under 157.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 18, 2026, at 8:26 AM ET from ESPN Bet.

The oddsmakers have installed St. John’s as a heavy -483 favorite, implying a high degree of confidence in the outright result. Calculating the vig-free probabilities, St. John’s has a 79.2% probability of winning, compared to just 20.8% for Marquette.

For bettors, the moneyline offers minimal value on the favorite; a $20 wager on St. John’s (-483) would return a profit of just $4.14. Conversely, an upset bid by Marquette (+361) would turn a $20 bet into $72.20 in profit. However, given the Red Storm’s 11-game win streak and dominance in the previous head-to-head meeting, the spread and total markets offer far superior value propositions than sweating a heavy moneyline price.