Korda vs Ruud Prediction & Odds at Delray Beach (Feb 20)

No. 2 seed Casper Ruud takes on American hopeful Sebastian Korda in the ATP Delray Beach Open today. Their quarterfinal match begins at 11 am, ET.

Ruud is 2-0 vs. Korda, though they split sets in their most recent meeting on indoor hard courts at the 2025 Stockholm Open quarterfinals.

Ruud has won 14 ATP Tour titles and reached the final of three Grand Slam events. His best surface is clay, but he reached the fourth round of this year’s Australian Open and is making his first appearance at Delray Beach.

Korda, who trains at IMG Academy in Florida, is 8-2 at Delray. He lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the 2021 Delray Beach final.

Korda has attracted significant market attention for today’s quarterfinal. We break down the head-to-head history, statistical trends, and line movement to identify the best betting angles for this Delray Beach quarterfinal clash.

Korda vs Ruud Odds

The betting markets have reacted aggressively to this quarterfinal pairing, flipping the favorite role completely since the lines opened. Below are the current consensus odds for the moneyline, spread, and total games markets.

Odds as of Feb. 19 at bet365. Lock in the bet365 bonus code to get a promo to use on the Delray Beach Open. Learn how to bet on sports in Florida.

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Ruud initially opened as a clear favorite at -150, with Korda priced as a +120 underdog. However, the market has inverted; Korda is now the favorite at -130. This drastic adjustment suggests bettors are fading Ruud’s recent form—having just returned from a break for the birth of his daughter — and heavily backing Korda’s situational advantage on home soil, specifically at Delray Beach where he has won 80% of his career matches.

Sebastian Korda vs Casper Ruud Picks & Predictions

Korda’s path to victory today is to lean in on his big serve. Over the past year, he has averaged 9 aces per match — good for 14th on tour. His first serve can reach the mid-130s, but he’ll typically sit in the 120s., and that pace certainly will come into play on the hard courts.

In their most recent match, a tight three-set indoor match, Korda fired 14 aces to Ruud’s 11 and generated 7 break-point opportunities compared to Ruud’s 3. However, Ruud won the critical points, converting 100% of his break chances while Korda languished with a 14% conversion rate.

Korda’s game is built for these faster surfaces, utilizing flat, penetrating groundstrokes that rush opponents — a tactic that should prove more effective here than on European clay.

Best Bet: Sebastian Korda -1.5 Games (-110 at Bet365)

Korda is 0-2 against Ruud, but this represents the value side in this matchup. The American thrives in Delray Beach and showed poise in saving four set points against Alex Michelsen in the previous round. Conversely, Ruud looked vulnerable in his opener against Marcos Giron, dropping the first set and requiring a tiebreak to survive the second.

Statistically, Korda outplayed Ruud in the majority of metrics during their last hard-court meeting in Stockholm, losing only due to poor break-point variance (1 of 7 converted). Ruud is currently in a transition phase, playing his first tournament since becoming a father and skipping the indoor swing. Korda, who has been active and successful on US hard courts this month, should be able to expose Ruud’s lack of match rhythm and utilize the home crowd to flip the script on those crucial break points.

A Korda win with a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline would cash this bet.

Total Prediction: Over 23.5 Total Games (-120 at Bet365)

The data points to a protracted battle. Their most recent meeting in Stockholm extended to 33 games, featuring a tiebreak and two other tight sets. Both players possess heavy first serves that protect them from frequent breaks; in Stockholm, they combined for 25 aces.

Ruud is difficult to put away, evidenced by his three-hour marathon against Giron. Even if Korda dictates play, Ruud’s defensive baseline skills often force opponents to hit extra balls, extending rallies and sets. With Korda’s recent match featuring a tiebreak and Ruud playing back-to-back tight contests, the probability of a 7-6 or 7-5 set is high. This line is attainable even in two competitive sets, but a three-set decider seems the most likely outcome given their history and current form.

Korda vs Ruud H2H

This quarterfinal marks the fourth career scheduled meeting between Korda and Ruud.

Ruud technically leads the head-to-head record 2-0 (though Korda advanced when Ruud had to withdraw before their Round of 16 match at the 2024 Montreal event.)

Below is the breakdown of their previous encounters: