Tommy Paul vs Sebastian Korda Prediction: ATP Delray Beach Open Final Odds & Picks

An all-American showdown in the Delray Beach finale on Sunday sees world #24 Tommy Paul facing #50 Sebastian Korda at 4:00 pm ET on Center Court in southeastern Florida. Paul enters the contest as the slight favorite. However, the head-to-head history suggests the underdog possesses the specific tactical tools to disrupt Paul’s rhythm, with Korda holding a 4-2 advantage over his compatriot.

Both players are Florida locals riding strong semifinal performances. Seeded fifth, Paul defeated top seed and two-time defending champion Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals before rallying from a set down against Learner Tien in the semis. This marks his second Delray Beach final after losing to Fritz here in 2024. The unseeded Korda knocked off second seed Casper Ruud and third seed Flavio Cobolli en route to his tenth career ATP final, but his first since January 2025 largely due to injury issues.

Below, I have set out the Paul vs Korda odds (moneyline, game spread, and game total) followed by the H2H history and, lastly, my Korda/Paul expert picks for the Delray Beach final.

Jump to: ODDS || H2H HISTORY || PICKS

Paul vs Korda Odds for Delray Beach Open Final

The betting landscape for this final indicates a market bracing for a coin-flip scenario. While Tommy Paul remains the slight favorite with an implied probability of 55.6% (vig-inclusive), the handle has seen notable movement since the lines opened. Paul initially opened at -138 on the moneyline, but those odds have faded to -125. Sharp money has likely targeted Sebastian Korda, shortening his price from an opening line of +110 down to even-money.

This narrowing of the odds is even more evident in the game-spread market. Paul opened as a -1.5 game favorite, but that handicap has been reduced to a razor-thin -0.5 games. The total-games line is set at 23.5 with equal juice on both sides. The over requires either a three-set battle or a two-set scoreline with the champion winning seven games in both.

Odds as of 11:25 am ET at bet365. Claim the bet365 bonus code to get a bonus to use on Paul vs Korda.

Korda vs Paul Head to Head History

Going into this final, Sebastian Korda holds a slender 4-2 lead over Tommy Paul across six previous ATP Tour meetings. Paul won their most-recent encounter in London and their last hardcourt meeting at the 2022 US Open; but Korda claimed victories in their first two hardcourt matches.

The last two meetings stayed under today’s total of 23.5 (23, 18). However, all three of their hard-court meetings have exceeded that total; indeed, all three have needed the full complement of sets, including their five-set marathon at the 2022 US Open.

Korda won their only previous meeting at this specific tournament, a three-set victory way back in 2021.

Tommy Paul vs Sebastian Korda Picks & Predictions

Below are my two best bets for the final on Center Court, one game-total pick and one moneyline pick.

Game-Total Pick: Over 23.5 Games (-120 at bet365)

Bookmakers have set the total at 23.5 games – anticipating a long, drawn-out battle – and the historical data between supports that assessment. As outlined above, all three of their previous hardcourt meetings went over 23.5 games, and none ended in straight sets.

Their two most-recent meetings did stay under today’s total, but both were on grass where a good service day is rewarded more than on hardcourts. Their parity from the baseline will turn this into a gruelling back-and-forth battle.

Moneyline Prediction: Tommy Paul (-125 at bet365 or 53c at Kalshi)

Although Sebastian Korda holds the head-to-head advantage, current form and tour standing favor Tommy Paul. In the 2026 season race, Paul holds the No. 18 spot with 350 points, compared to Korda’s No. 37 position with 210 points. Paul’s 11-4 record in 2026 reflects superior consistency, and his path through this tournament – including a revenge win over Fritz and a comeback against Tien – demonstrates both his competitive resolve and match sharpness.

Critically, Paul won their most-recent encounter in London, proving he has solved the Korda puzzle after losing four of their first five meetings. With the spread virtually non-existent at -0.5 games, backing the higher-ranked player to consolidate his recent form and claim the title offers the best risk-adjusted return.

Bettors can get this line at -125 at bet365 or find an even better price at prediction site Kalshi.

Prediction Markets

Paul vs Korda Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Tommy Paul

54%

Sebastian Korda

48%

Predict

The “yes” on Paul winning is currently trading at 53 cents, which is equivalent to a -113 moneyline. Every “yes” contract your buy at 53 cents will return 47 cents in profit if Paul wins. Click the graph above to claim SBD’s exclusive sign-up bonus at Kalshi.

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