Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiacos Expert Picks, Predictions, Best Odds & Injury Reports (Feb 24)
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Published:
- Winners of four straight at home,Bayer Leverkusen enters the second leg with a 2-0 aggregate lead on Olympiacos
- Sharp money has led to heavy juice on over 2.5 goals (-145), anticipating a desperate Olympiacos side chasing the game
- See my Leverkusen vs Olympiacos expert picks, plus the best available odds and latest injury reports
The BayArena hosts a pivotal UEFA Champions League playoff second leg this Tuesday, February 24, as Bayer Leverkusen looks to punch their ticket to the Round of 16 against Olympiacos Piraeus. Kickoff is slated for 3:00 pm ET in Leverkusen, Germany.
Manager Kasper Hjulmand’s side holds a commanding 2-0 aggregate lead following a decisive victory in Greece last week. While the visitors must chase the game to overturn the deficit, the betting market heavily favors the hosts to control the tempo. This matchup presents a classic scenario where game state dictates strategy: Olympiacos must abandon their defensive shape, likely creating the open, high-variance environment that bettors target in elimination games.
Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || H2H STATS || INJURIES
Leverkusen vs Olympiacos Odds
Bayer Leverkusen enters this fixture as the -125 moneyline favorite at BetMGM and Caesars (and slightly shorter at other books). TheScore has the best moneyline price on both the draw (+320) and an Olympiacos win (+340). Notably, the total has seen significant action, with the over 2.5 heavily juiced to -150.
Implied Probabilities
Adjusting for the sportsbook vigorish (vig), the win probabilities for this matchup break down as follows:
- Bayer Leverkusen: 52.9%
- Olympiacos Piraeus: 22.9%
- Draw: 24.2%
As with all Champions League games, this match is also available at prediction site Kalshi.
Currently, Kalshi’s prices represent a slightly better option for Leverkusen bettors, but slightly worse for draw and Olympiacos bettors. The “yes” on Leverkusen to win is trading at 55 cents, which is equal to a -122 moneyline. The draw is trading at 24 cents (equal to a -317 moneyline) and Olympiacos is trading at 23 cents (equal to a 335 moneyline).
Users who haven’t registered at Kalshi yet can click the table above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.
Payout Scenarios
For bettors looking to allocate a $20 unit on the moneyline:
- A wager on Bayer Leverkusen (-125) returns a profit of $16.00, for a total payout of $36.00.
- A wager on Olympiacos (+340) returns a profit of $68.00, for a total payout of $88.00.
Line Movement
The market has moved slightly since opening. Leverkusen opened as a -147 favorite but has faded to -125, likely due to the “motivation factor” – Leverkusen can technically advance with a draw or a one-goal loss. The biggest movement is on the total. After opening at 2.5 with the over at -133, heavy volume has pushed the price to -150 or shorter.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiacos Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
The betting landscape for this Champions League clash is defined by the aggregate scoreline. With Olympiacos trailing by two goals, they cannot afford a conservative approach. This situational factor aligns perfectly with Leverkusen’s statistical strengths at home.
Moneyline Pick: Bayer Leverkusen (-122 at Kalshi)
Backing Leverkusen at -122 remains the high-value play. The “Die Werkself” squad has turned the BayArena into a fortress, winning four consecutive home matches across all competitions with clean sheets. The disparity in quality was evident in the first leg: Leverkusen generated higher-quality chances compared to Olympiacos’ low-probability attempts, finishing with 1.95 xGF to the Greek’s 0.75 xGF.
Historically, German soil has been a graveyard for the Greek side. Olympiacos has lost nine of its last 11 matches in Germany. Furthermore, Leverkusen is ruthless when holding a first-leg advantage; they have progressed in 24 of 26 European ties after winning the opener. With Patrik Schick in peak form and the midfield stability provided by Robert Andrich, Leverkusen is well-equipped to exploit the gaps Olympiacos will inevitably leave at the back.
Total-Goals Prediction: Over 2.5 (-150 at Caesars)
The game script here screams “goals.” Olympiacos must score at least twice to force extra time. This necessity forces them to play a high defensive line, which plays directly into the hands of Leverkusen’s transition attack, led by the pace of Martin Terrier and precision of Florian Wirtz.
Both teams have conceded an average of 1.75 goals per game in the Champions League this season. Neither defense is impenetrable.
When chasing a multi-goal deficit in the second leg of a knockout tie, the frequency of late goals increases significantly as the losing team throws bodies forward.
The player prop market offers distinct value by targeting the specific tactical mismatches created by the aggregate score. With Nathan Tella ruled out, the offensive volume concentrates on specific personnel.
Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Patrik Schick (+105 at bet365)
Patrik Schick is the clear focal point of the Leverkusen attack. After scoring a brace in the first leg to secure the 2-0 win, Schick has now tallied four goals in his last six Champions League appearances.
Schick averages high shot volume inside the box, and with Olympiacos forced to attack, he will find ample space on the counter. With creative service from Alex Grimaldo (Leverkusen’s top assister), Schick is a constant aerial threat on corners and free kicks against an Olympiacos defense that concedes 1.75 goals per game.
At +105, the implied probability is 48.8%. Given his current form and the favorable matchup, this price offers a solid edge over the true probability of him finding the net.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiacos Team Stats Comparison
Analyzing the season-long data from the 2025-26 Champions League campaign reveals why Leverkusen is the rightful favorite.
The most actionable stat for the Over 2.5 bet is the Goals Conceded metric. Both teams allow 1.75 goals per game. Leverkusen’s defense has been leaky in Europe, conceding 14 goals in 9 matches. While they have improved recently at home, the underlying numbers suggest they give up chances, which Olympiacos must exploit.
Olympiacos averages 1.8 yellow cards per game, playing a more physical style. This could lead to dangerous free-kick opportunities for Alex Grimaldo, a specialist in dead-ball situations.
Today’s Injury Reports
The availability of key personnel significantly impacts the handicapping of this match, particularly for Leverkusen’s attack.
Bayer Leverkusen
- Nathan Tella (Forward): OUT. Tella’s absence removes pace from the wing. This consolidates the attacking workload onto Florian Wirtz and Jonas Hofmann to create for Schick.
- Mark Flekken (Goalkeeper): OUT. Starting keeper remains sidelined, meaning Janis Blaswich likely continues in goal.
- Eliesse Ben Seghir (Midfielder): OUT.
- Loïc Badé (Defender): Doubtful. Substituted with a hamstring issue in the recent league match.
Olympiacos Piraeus
- Rodinei (Defender): Doubtful. A key creative outlet (2 assists in H2H) who missed the first leg. His absence would severely limit Olympiacos’ width.
- Theofanis Bakoulas (Midfielder): OUT. Long-term knee injury.
Betting impact: Leverkusen’s injuries are impactful but manageable due to superior depth. However, if Rodinei cannot go for Olympiacos, the Greek side loses one of their few proven creators against this German opposition, further validating the Leverkusen Moneyline and Under on Olympiacos team total props.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
