Final UFC Mexico Predictions & Picks for Moreno vs Kavanagh Card

• Tonight’s UFC Mexico is headlined by the Moreno vs Kavanagh flyweight bout
• Kavanagh is taking this fight on short notice, and it will be his first ever 5 round bout
• See my UFC Mexico predictions and picks for the Moreno vs Kavanagh card, below

The UFC’s annual Mexico City event goes down tonight, headlined by Tijuana native Brandon Moreno. The 32-year-old will face prospect Lone’er Kavanagh in a 5 round flyweight bout, after Asu Almabaev dropped out due to injury.

Online sportsbooks have listed Moreno as a sizeable moneyline favorite, which checks out given he’s fighting in his own backyard and at severe elevation that his short notice opponent is not used to.

The UFC Mexico prelims are set to get underway from Arena CDMX, in Mexico City, at 5 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 8 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my Final UFC Mexico predictions and picks for the Moreno vs Kavanagh card.

UFC Mexico Picks #1: Moreno vs Kavanagh Under 4.5 Rounds

The way I see it, the Main Event will break one of two ways. Either Kavanagh, who is the superior striker, comes out with his hair on fire and catches Moreno early, or the crafty vet will patiently wait him out before pouncing on an inevitable mistake to earn the finish.

Moreno vs Kavanagh Tale of the Tape

The ladder scenario is much more likely, as Kavanagh is about to walk into a hornet’s nest. Fighting in Mexico City is incredibly difficult, and facing the country’s pride and joy won’t make things any easier.

Kavanagh was preparing for a March fight, so he should be in shape, but fighting at altitude is a major shock to the system if you’ve never done it before. Moreno, meanwhile, has been training in these conditions all his life and has plenty of experience headlining cards. He’s never lost to anyone but a champion or top contender, and will be facing a man who’s never taken part in a 5 round bout.

I expect Kavanagh to come out swinging, but he’ll only be able to sustain a frantic pace for so long. He fell into a similar trap last time out, losing to Charles Johnson in a fight he was a sizeable favorite in. His speed might catch Moreno off guard momentarily, but the 32-year-old has seen it all over the course of a decade of UFC fights, and his wide arsenal of MMA talents should propel him to victory.

Regardless of who wins, I see it happening inside the distance, which makes under 4.5 rounds at +100 odds an easy selection.

• Final UFC Mexico Predictions: Under 4.5 Rounds (+100 at Bet365)

Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Mexico on Saturday.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Mexico Picks #2: Regina Tarin Moneyline

For my next selection, I’m sticking in the Mexican pipeline to back Regina Tarin over Ernesta Kareckaite. Tarin is undefeated as a professional, winning all seven of her bouts, and is nicknamed “Kill Bill” for her impressive 84 percent finish rate. Yes, she’s also stepping in on short notice, but she was scheduled to compete in a Muay Thai fight this weekend so the turnaround is much more manageable.

Kareckaite, her opponent in the 130-pound catch weight fight, is someone who lacks the power and versatility to be such a lengthy favorite (-155). Kareckaite relies on her underwhelming striking, and has basically no wrestling game to speak of. She doesn’t dominate rounds and will likely struggle with the speed and aggressiveness of an opponent she knows little about.

• Final UFC Mexico Predictions: Regina Tarin Moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)

UFC Mexico Picks #3: Damian Pinas Method of Victory

I’ll round out my UFC Mexico betting card with Damian Pinas to defeat Wes Schultz by KO/TKO or DQ. Pinas has finished eight of his nine opponents, and Schultz is the type of fighter who will either submit his opponent or get knocked out trying.

Schultz is an awkward striker who simply won’t be able to match the power of Pinas, who lands nearly 10 significant strikes per minute. Schultz will do his best to get this fight to the mat, but his 46% takedown accuracy doesn’t inspire much confidence.

If you want boost your potential payout, consider Pinas to win in the 1st or 2nd round at plus-money odds, something he’s done in nearly all of his UFC fights.

• Final UFC Mexico Predictions: Damian Pinas to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-160 at DraftKings)