David Martinez vs Marlon Vera Prediction, Odds and Fight Preview – UFC Mexico City

• David Martinez faces Marlon “Chito” Vera in the UFC Mexico City co-main event on Saturday, February 28th
• Vera has lost four of his last five fights and hasn’t won a first round on the scorecards in 10 years
• Check out our Martinez vs Vera prediction, odds and fight breakdown below

David Martinez gets his biggest test yet when he faces Marlon “Chito” Vera in the UFC Mexico City co-main event this Saturday at Arena CDMX in Mexico City.

Martinez is making just his third UFC walk, but has looked the part of a future contender so far. A brutal first-round knockout of Saimon Oliveira followed by a clean decision over Rob Font will do that. Vera is the former title challenger, but he’s 1-4 in his last five and looking to stop the bleeding.

Here’s my Martinez vs Vera prediction, odds breakdown and tale of the tape.

Martinez vs Vera Prediction

We’ve seen this movie with Chito before. Every time he’s an underdog, people talk themselves into him. Great chin, dangerous power, former title challenger. And then he goes out there and does nothing for three rounds.

Vera has won the first round on the scorecards just once in his last 10 decision fights. That’s a decade of slow starts. In three-round fights, you can’t afford to give away the opening frame and hope to catch fire late. It worked in five-rounders against lesser competition, but those days are over.

Martinez is a different kind of problem. He fights out of a karate base with Dominick Cruz-style movement, constant angles, and hard kicks to all three levels. He lands 4.85 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.95. That 68% significant strike defense is backed up by footwork, not just a high guard.

Vera’s path to winning is the same as it always is. He needs to let his hands go, pressure Martinez, and land something big. The problem? He just won’t do it. He’ll wait, wait, wait, and then act surprised when he loses the decision. We saw it against Zahabi. We saw it against Figueiredo. Fighters don’t change.

Martinez also has the home crowd behind him. He lives and trains in Mexico City, so the altitude at 7,000 feet won’t be an issue for him. That’s another factor working against Vera, who tends to fade anyway.

I expect Martinez to outwork him with volume, win the first two rounds comfortably, and coast to a decision. Vera has never been stopped in 35 pro fights, so I’m not banking on a finish. But Martinez has 10 knockouts in 13 wins, and if Vera’s chin is finally starting to crack after getting dropped by Figueiredo, there’s a chance he ends it early.

Martinez by decision is -225, and that’s where I’m putting my money. The moneyline at -330 is too steep for a three-rounder, but the decision prop gives you a much better price on what I think is the most likely outcome.

• Martinez vs Vera Pick: David Martinez by Decision (-225 at Caesars)

Martinez vs Vera Odds

Martinez is a -330 favorite at Caesars, which implies about a 77% chance he wins. The fight to go the distance is priced at -360 yes and +250 no, which tells you oddsmakers aren’t expecting a finish. Decision is the overwhelming favorite at -360 for the fight outcome, while KO/TKO sits at +300, and submission is way out at +900.

The over 2.5 rounds at -400 is too juiced for my taste, but it makes sense. Vera has never been finished, and Martinez’s only UFC stoppage came against Saimon Oliveira, who gets knocked out by everybody.

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Odds as of February 27th at Caesars Sportsbook. Grab a Caesars Sportsbook promo code for UFC Mexico City or browse UFC betting apps.

Martinez vs Vera Tale of the Tape

The striking numbers are worth a closer look. Martinez lands more per minute at 4.85 compared to Vera’s 4.25, but the real gap is on defense. Martinez absorbs just 2.95 significant strikes per minute while Vera eats 5.37. In a fight that’s almost certainly going to the scorecards, that difference is huge.

Vera has the size edge at 5’8″ with a 70-inch reach compared to Martinez at 5’5″ with 67 inches. But good luck using that reach when Martinez won’t stand still. Opponents have gone 0-for-8 on takedowns against him between the UFC and Contender Series, so don’t expect Vera to suddenly become a wrestler either.

David Martinez Recent Fights

• Win vs Rob Font – Decision (September 2025)
• Win vs Saimon Oliveira – KO/TKO (June 2025)
• Win on Dana White’s Contender Series – Decision (2025)

Marlon Vera Recent Fights

• Loss vs Aiemann Zahabi – Split Decision (October 2025)
• Loss vs Deiveson Figueiredo – Decision (June 2025)
• Loss vs Cory Sandhagen – Decision (March 2025)
• Win vs Pedro Munhoz – Decision (November 2024)
• Loss vs Sean O’Malley – Decision (March 2024)

How to Watch Martinez vs Vera

UFC Mexico City streams exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States. Sign up for Paramount+ here. The co-main event between Martinez and Vera should start around 10:15 pm ET, though that depends on how the earlier main card fights play out.