Kentucky vs LSU Picks, Predictions, and SEC Tournament Odds

• Kentucky is a 7.5-point favorite over LSU in the SEC Tournament first round on Wednesday
• The Wildcats beat the Tigers 75-74 on a Malachi Moreno buzzer-beater back in January
• See my Kentucky vs LSU predictions, picks and odds for the March 11 matchup, below

The SEC Tournament tips off Wednesday with No. 9 seed Kentucky (19-12, 10-8 SEC) facing No. 16 seed LSU (15-16, 3-15 SEC) in a first-round matchup at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.

Online sportsbooks have installed the Wildcats as 7.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. Kentucky enters having dropped five of their last seven regular season games, while LSU limps in on a three-game skid after a triple-overtime loss to Texas A&M.

The action tips off at 12:30 pm ET with SEC Network providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Kentucky vs LSU predictions, picks and odds.

Kentucky vs LSU Predictions and Picks

Best Bet: LSU Team Total Under 72.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

This is where I’m putting my money. LSU’s offense has been inconsistent all season, and Kentucky’s defense has the length to bother the Tigers’ perimeter shooters.

In the first meeting, LSU scored 74 points but needed a furious late push to get there. Kentucky held them to just 34 second-half points after surrendering 40 in the first half.

The Tigers are also without Dedan Thomas Jr. (foot surgery) and Jalen Reed (leg), limiting their backcourt depth. Max Mackinnon can score, but he shot 7-for-20 in LSU’s last game against Texas A&M. If Kentucky’s defense locks in early, the Tigers will struggle to crack 70.

With the Wildcats’ March Madness hopes on the line, expect Mark Pope to emphasize defensive intensity from the opening tip.

Spread Pick: LSU +8 (-106 at Fanatics)

I’m grabbing the points with the Tigers despite their ugly record. The underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings between these programs.

Kentucky won the first meeting 75-74, but it took an 18-point comeback and a Malachi Moreno buzzer-beater to escape Baton Rouge. The Wildcats trailed 40-22 early in the second half before mounting that furious rally. LSU can hang with this team.

If you’re wondering how the Tigers cover while staying under their team total, the answer is Kentucky’s offense. The Wildcats have been inconsistent all season, and this neutral-site environment with an early tip could suppress both teams’ scoring. A 68-63 Kentucky win keeps LSU under 72.5 while covering the spread.

Kentucky’s injury situation adds to the uncertainty. Kam Williams remains out indefinitely with a foot injury, while Jayden Quaintance is questionable with a knee issue. The Wildcats have been playing with just nine scholarship players down the stretch.

Key Statistical Metrics: Kentucky vs LSU

Yes, Kentucky is 10-0 against teams ranked 151st or worse in RPI. But LSU has nothing to lose here, and conference tournament underdogs often play loose. Head coach Matt McMahon’s seat is scorching hot after back-to-back 3-15 SEC finishes, so the Tigers will leave everything on the floor.

Total Pick: Under 151.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Neutral-site conference tournaments typically start slow. Shooters need time to adjust to unfamiliar sightlines in cavernous arenas, and the 12:30 pm ET tip means cold legs early.

The under is 5-1 in Kentucky’s last six neutral site games. The first meeting between these teams also stayed under 151.5, finishing 75-74 despite both teams pushing tempo down the stretch.

Kentucky’s depth issues point toward a slower pace too. Playing with nine scholarship players for weeks, the Wildcats can’t afford to run up and down the floor for 40 minutes.

Kentucky vs LSU Odds

Odds as of March 11. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.

The moneyline odds give Kentucky an implied win probability of around 72%. A $20 bet on the Wildcats at -308 would return just $6.49 in profit, while a $20 flier on LSU at +245 pays out $49 if the Tigers pull off the upset. Given the tight margins in the first meeting, the value sits with the spread and team total rather than the moneyline.