2026 Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Predictions: NASCAR Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Top 10 Trades

• Kyle Larson leads the Kalshi prediction market at 23% implied probability for the 2026 Pennzoil 400
• Christopher Bell and Larson both climbed seven points on the Kalshi board after Toyota swept the top four qualifying spots
• Read below for Pennzoil 400 Kalshi predictions, outright picks, and top 10 trades at Las Vegas

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400 this Sunday, March 15. The green flag drops at 4:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

LVMS is a 1.5-mile intermediate oval and the first cookie-cutter track of 2026. Long runs, tire management, and clean air matter here. Kalshi and other prediction markets are offering both outright win and top 10 finish markets again this week.

Kyle Larson leads the Kalshi board at 23% after climbing seven points. Christopher Bell jumped seven as well after winning the pole, with Toyota sweeping the top four qualifying spots. Denny Hamlin swept the practice speed boards and sits third at 16%. Blaney dropped a point to 9% despite winning at Phoenix last week, as the market weighs his three straight crashes at this track.

The full Kalshi board is below, followed by our outright picks and top 10 trades.

2026 Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Odds

Prediction Markets

2026 Pennzoil 400

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Kalshi

Kyle Larson

22%

Christopher Bell

18%

Denny Hamlin

17%

William Byron

11%

Tyler Reddick

8%

Ryan Blaney

8%

Ty Gibbs

8%

Bubba Wallace

6%

Joey Logano

6%

Chase Briscoe

5%

Predict

*Kalshi odds as of March 15, 2026. Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. Start trading with the Kalshi referral code “DIME“.

Ross Chastain at 4 cents on Kalshi pays $250 on a $10 play. FanDuel has him at +1300, paying just $130 on that same bet. That’s nearly double the payout. The Kalshi edge on longshots holds again this week, and you still get the ability to sell mid-race if your driver is running up front.

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Pennzoil 400 Outright Picks

Larson owns this track. He has three wins at LVMS and 819 career laps led, nearly 250 more than any other active driver. His 5.75 average finish over the last four races is the best in the field. Larson qualified fifth Saturday and showed flat long-run speed in practice with no tire fade.

A $10 play at 23 cents returns $43 on Kalshi. DraftKings has him at +450, paying $45 on that same bet. The sportsbook edge is minimal here, and Kalshi gives you the option to sell if Larson is leading at halfway, where his shares could push to 50-60 cents.

Ross Chastain at 4 cents is my longshot play. Since joining Trackhouse Racing, Chastain has five top-5 finishes in eight starts at LVMS with a 7.6 average finish. He finished second in this race last spring and ranks third in average running position (7.75) over the last four races.

The No. 1 Chevy has led 167 laps at this track since the move to Trackhouse, and Chastain’s practice speeds ranked inside the top five. A $10 play returns $250.

• Pennzoil 400 Prediction to Win: Kyle Larson (23% / 23¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Longshot Pick: Ross Chastain (4% / 4¢ per share on Kalshi)

KALSHI TRADING

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Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Top 10 Picks

Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Top 10 Odds

Shane van Gisbergen top 10 at 25 cents is the best value on the entire Kalshi board this week. The implied probability sits at 38%, but you’re only paying 25 cents per share, a 13-cent gap that’s wider than any other prop this weekend. SVG climbed 18 points in the top 10 market and his oval racing has improved with a sixth at Atlanta and 11th at Phoenix in 2026.

Ty Gibbs top 10 at 56 cents is another play that makes sense. He climbed 15 points after qualifying third and topping the adjusted practice speed analyzer. Gibbs has back-to-back fourth-place finishes at COTA and Phoenix, and the JGR Toyotas looked fast all weekend in Vegas.

Pennzoil 400 Top 10 Picks:

• Shane van Gisbergen Top 10 (38% / 25¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Ty Gibbs Top 10 (57% / 56¢ per share on Kalshi)

KALSHI TRADING

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T&Cs

Trade at Kalshi & Get a $10 bonus when you sign up today!

Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME

CODE: DIME

SIGNUP TODAY

GET A $10
BONUS

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How to Watch the 2026 Pennzoil 400

The 2026 Pennzoil 400 airs live on FS1 this Sunday, March 15, at 4:00 p.m. ET from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Expect 80-degree temperatures with cloud cover and just a 10% chance of rain.